What comeback MSM and Democrats?
Jay Cost is one of my favorite political analysts. His Morning Jay daily article over at The Weekly Standard is highly recommended. As you all know and what many here and around the conservative blogosphere had predicted, the MSM is starting to build their comeback narrative. Rasmussen and Gallup came out with some very interesting generic polling yesterday. Now with the nauseating rollercoaster ride that Gallup has had with its recent polling, I take it with a grain of salt. Yet, with Gallup saying that it is a +13 point lead for the GOP among likely voters with a higher Democratic voter turnout and a +18 point GOP lead with a lower Democratic voter turnout with likely voters is quite telling. Cost has weighed in over the last couple of days on what the voter breakdown on Election Night is going to look like and even gave a shout out to Erick with this morning’s article. Some key takeaways:
Gallup has been suggesting for some time that we shouldn’t put too much stock in their generic ballot numbers – last week they were indicating that the tie among the Democrats was ephemeral. Now, they’re hinting that the Republican lead is too big.
What to make of this?
I’ll put it this way, you’d have to give me some killer odds to get me to bet on a GOP +18 result, or even a GOP +13 result, which is what their expanded likely voter model has (more on these dueling likely voter models in another installment).
But beyond that, this is what I’d suggest. Put out of your mind the topline numbers, and you see something similar in both Rasmussen and Gallup: Republicans are running away with the independent vote. The differences in their final results are due to how many undecideds are left, how well both sides are sorted, and how many Democrats and Republicans are in the sample. My feeling, however, is that the two sides are ultimately going to be very well sorted (95 percent or so of Republicans voting Republican; 95 percent of Democrats voting Democratic), and the Democrats and Republicans should once again reach rough parity, as has happened in each of the last four midterms. The big question for now is how the independents break, and in both of these polls they are breaking heavily toward the GOP.
In the 2004 Election, both Democratic and Republican bases came out in force for their presidential candidate. The voter ID breakdown I believe was 36D/36/R/28I. Fast forward to 2010. Rasmussen in their latest polling shows that the GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot has shrunk down to 3 points. However, there was a couple of very interesting points in this poll:
For the second month in a row, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has fallen to a record low…. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
Some general observations. Democrats are no longer trying to appeal to the independent vote. They are trying frantically to get their base excited about coming out in November. President Obama chastised those voters. With Democrats losing the independent vote by as much as a 2:1 ratio in parts across the country and with a furious and fired up GOP and conservative base, they will need their base to limit their losses in the House and the Senate to what was seen in 1994. They are trying to save Democratic friendly states in regards to Senate races and House districts. There isn’t a comeback here by any stretch. They are trying to prevent their minority margin in the House from being marginalized to peanut gallery status.
Show up and get the vote out November 2nd.