Democrats’ strategy to get their voter base to show up? Democratic and university push polls
Some people got mad at me for posting not to get complacent and that a final money push was needed in the races of Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and West Virginia. I also expressed that I felt that Dino Rossi, Carly Fiorina, and Sharron Angle look to be flush with cash and in great shape coming down the stretch. I really think Dino Rossi and Sharron Angle are going to win their races. Carly Fiorina is in an epic fight with Barbara Boxer but it is looking like the momentum has swung in her direction at the right time. The president making multiple trips to Washington is clear evidence that the Democrats think Patty Murray is in deep peril. I stand by this. We cannot get complacent and there is also a strategy in targeting these four races.
As I responded to a commentor on my post yesterday:
I pointed out to take university polls with a grain of salt. You have to remember that Obama has made a few visits to Philly recently to try to encourage the voters in that Democratic heavy city to come out. I’m not trying to give the impression of despair. I am saying don’t get complacent. Pennsylvania is actually a pretty Democratic state with Dems having a 1 million registered voter advantage.
Think about the strategy of this. If we can pour money into CO, WV, IL, and PA and help secure a GOP sweep of the Senate seats along and east of the Mississippi River, the Democratic voters out in the Mountain West and the Pacific whom are in different time zones will see the wave coming at them, get even more depressed than they already are, and be more inclined to stay home.
If the GOP sweeps the Senate races along and east of the Mississippi even if the GOP loses Connecticut, Delaware and both seats in New York, Harry Reid (who I think is already done), Barbara Boxer, and Patty Murray are as good as gone. Linda McMahon is surging and Christine O’Donnell had some huge movement toward her after the first debate between her and Chris Coons so don’t give up on those races either.
This is the endgame leading up to Election Day. It is why Democrats, the MSM and their union minions are frantically trying to gin up their voting base anyway they can. So they are frantically looking for the match that will ignite their base so they can limit their losses to what was seen in 1994. I predicted at the end of September they would do this. They already know that the House is gone and the Senate is in very real danger of falling to the GOP as well. Even Charlie Cook has weighed in on the outlook in the Senate which looks even worse in 2012 and 2014 for the Democrats.
The latest push poll out is of the Pennsylvania Senate race from Quinnipiac showing Pat Toomey with a 2 point lead over Joe Sestak which is the third straight poll showing the race tight. However, I point out as noted in the Quinnipiac poll:
Toomey is beating Sestak 88 – 8 percent among Republicans and 56 – 35 percent among independent voters. But Sestak is winning 89 – 7 percent among Democrats. Thirteen percent of Toomey’s voters and 9 percent of Sestak backers say they might change their mind before Election Day. The 5 percent of undecided voters includes 9 percent of independent voters.
Toomey has a 21 point lead among independent voters over Sestak. WHAT??!?! And he is only up 2?? 21 POINTS!!! Guess what? You don’t have to tell me why it is so close. It is the same thing as what PPP and various other push pollsters trying to gin up the Democratic base have been doing:
They are assuming and using a weight model that there will be more Democrats that will show up this November than they did in 2008.
This just is not going to happen. The Democratic base is flat out depressed and unhappy with how things have turned out with Obama and Congressional Democrats. Also, with independents very heavily in the GOP corner nationwide and a GOP base that looks to turn out as well if not better than they did in the 2004 presidential election, you have the recipe for an election night so horrible for Democrats that hasn’t been seen since the late 19th and early 20th century.
Don’t get complacent. Vote on November 2nd.