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144 House seats listed as competitive — The final push in the House races

So says the Real Clear Politics map.

What will be assumed is that the Likely and Lean GOP category is all going to go the way of the GOP candidate simply because the GOP momentum is insurmountable everywhere.  Currently RCP predicts a 216-178 GOP majority including leaners with 41 races rated as toss-up.  In my humble opinion I see the GOP taking at least 75% of the toss-up races.  Using that projection I see at minimum a 246-189 GOP House majority for the time being which equates to a 68 seat gain in the House for the GOP.  It is entirely in the realm that the GOP could sweep them all but I want to at least give an objective analysis.  I will examine the Likely Democrat, lean Democrat and Toss-ups.  The RCP map is great.  You can click any race on the map as it gives you a history of how the district has voted in recent elections.  It also provides the GOP congressional candidate’s campaign website so if you live locally in that area, you can donate to that candidate.  This also saves me the time of having to link every race.

Likely Democrat House races

AR-4, NJ-6, MA-4,5, and 6, TN-5,  OR-4, TX-15 and TX25 look like the GOP challenger may actually have a fighting chance.  I would put the chance of any gain at these seats at 30% at the most but there could be a flip or two here.  9 seats are semi-vulnerable here.  There are some safe seats out there like WA-6 in which a GOP internal shows the GOP candidate up.  However, I won’t count them in for the time being.

Lean Democratic races

All the races with the exception of ID-1, KY-3, ME-2, MI-15, and RI-1 could go either way and I consider to be 50/50 in a wave year that looks to be truly historic as Election Day approaches.  A net 21 seats is possible from this category.

Toss-Up

There is a net possible gain of 39 seats here.  It would be absolutely fabulous if the GOP swept all the races in this category.  However, the toughest races I see in this category are VA-9, WV-1, NJ-3, NH-2, NC-11, IA-1 and 3, CT-4 and 5, CA-20, AZ-7, MI-7 and 9, PA-12, and MO-4.  Nothing can be taken for granted.

In summary, the absolute top line of possible GOP gains is 110 seats.  If the GOP wins 50% of these races then that would put the GOP House gain at 55 seats which is what a lot of pundits have been predicting.  Jay Cost sees a 61 seat gain in the House as of today but his model is based on if 95% of Democrats turn out compared to what they did in 2008.  What I like about his prediction is that this assumes a very reasonable best case scenario for the Democrats.  YIKES!!  This illustrates just how horrible the Democratic Party’s predicament is.  If the GOP nets 3 out of 4 races of the top line figure that would put the gain at 83 seats and that has becoming a more real possibility for the last week.

Onward to November 2nd!!

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