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Narrowing the light into a laser — The state of the Senate races

I remember back on Election Night 2006 when the chances of the Democrats taking the House were quite strong but chances of the Senate flipping were near impossible.  The Democrats then had to pull an inside straight to recapture control of the Senate.  Guess what happened?  CNN like they had with their proclamation when Democrats were going to recapture the House announced with visual fireworks that they had done so in the Senate.  The sickening feeling of seeing James Carville and later Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer grinning like cheshire cats was burned into my memory.  It is important to note that at no time in this nation’s history has one house of congress flipped without the other following suit.  So where do things stand right now?

Colorado, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania

These group of states in my humble opinion are donation priority number 1 although if you wanted to break down priorities even further, just refer to the order that I listed the states in above.  Recent polling in Colorado indicates a dead heat though early voting numbers seem to indicate that Ken Buck is in very good shape.  However, this race cannot be taken for granted and it is a tight race.  Daily Kos pollster PPP(D) came out with another very questionable poll on the West Virginia race showing Joe Manchin up 6 on John Raese.  PPP has been oversampling Democrats hilariously in these latest polls out of this state.  Joe Manchin did a total 180 on Obamacare and now is saying he would have voted against it.  Manchin wouldn’t have said that if he were not losing.  The last Rasmussen poll showed John Raese up 7.  That is a 13 point gap folks.  One of these pollsters is going to wind up with serious egg on their face.  Fox came out with a poll showing Raese up 2 so that is the poll I’m going to go with for the time being.  It is tight there as well though I think Raese has the edge.  Pat Toomey has opened up a solid 4-5 point lead depending on which poll do you believe.  Joe Sestak pulled a Harry Reid in their final debate by turning in an awful, awful debate performance.  The reason why I still list Pennsylvania here is because of the very large registered voter advantage that the Democrats have in this state. Each of these states are absolute MUST HAVES if the GOP is to gain control of the Senate.

California, Washington

Polls out in these two states show very, very tight races.  These could go either way.  The NRSC dumped $3 million into the California Senate race today and dumped large amounts of money in both of these states earlier this month.  The GOP will need one of these two assuming that all the prior races shake out as currently projected (and hoped for).  The ground game in these states is probably going to be the most important of all the states in getting the vote out.  All GOP and independent voters who are inclined to vote for Fiorina and Rossi, your vote, your encouragement to your family and friends to vote, and your volunteerism will be the ultimate deciding factor out in these states.

Illinois and Nevada

It looks as if Mark Kirk is starting to pull away in this race.  Alexi Giannoulias like Harry Reid and Joe Sestak, stumbled terribly in his most recent debate.  Combine this with 55% of independents polled voting for Kirk with only 28% for Alexi Giannoulias and you have a gift-wrapped and certain win for Mark Kirk.  I would be so bold as to put the Illinois Senate seat in the GOP lean category now.  The same goes for the Nevada Senate seat.  I haven’t seen any new polls out from Nevada though I do think Sharron Angle is looking very promising at knocking off Harry Reid.  Reid’s attitude and statements has become very, very nasty in recent days which tells me he is definitely behind.  Based on early voting numbers out of Nevada and particularly Clark and Washoe counties, Harry Reid is in very, very bad shape indeed.

A side note on these Senate races.  Linda McMahon has run a very spirited campaign, waged an incredible fight forcing Democrats to spend millions to defend a seat that they should have never had to defend in the first place.  Today’s Rasmussen poll was disheartening.  People in Connecticut, Linda McMahon never quit during this campaign and has given this her best shot.  Come out and express your appreciation to her with your vote.  Who knows?  Doing so may swing a few very vulnerable Connecticut House races into the GOP camp.  The same can be said for Christine O’Donnell who had probably the most loaded deck to work against of any GOP candidate this year and she has really attained a head of steam in recent polling.  She also received the endorsement of Pete DuPont who is a GOP political giant in Delaware and Chris Coons has reversed position and stated that he would support extending the Bush tax cuts.  That is not the move of a political candidate who is running away with an election. I am a little anxious to see some polling there.

Finally, these close races and the deciding factor in a victorious outcome will be you.  Turnout is always the deciding factor in close races.  If you live in a state where a race is close, show up.  If the races are not close, show up and vote anyway.

Vote on November 2nd.

CNN, I better see some big fireworks when the GOP wins back the House and Senate.  After all, you are a objective news organization, aren’t you?

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