Final Senate update: It comes down to Washington, West Virginia, Nevada, Illinois, Colorado and California.
A very grateful hat tip of gratitude to National Review’s Battle ’10 blog spot. Made citing early voting information so much easier.
I still don’t put Pennsylvania out of the Democrats’ reach and the Connecticut or Delaware Senate races out of the GOP’s reach either. However, to be objective, these are the six races that will decide the Senate. Each highlighted state below will have a link to volunteer for the campaign whether it be on the ground or on the phone. Now the temptation here would be for the conservative voter to think that I voted and that is all I need to do. Wrong. You can always do more if you have the available time. Harry Reid’s workers and union organizations are working frantically on trying to save Reid from defeat. It is people like you that can match their effort and intensity by helping out Sharron Angle. Tight races are always won by intensity and turning out the vote. Which leads us to our first race:
The latest polling has shown that Sharron Angle is up 3 to 4 points on Harry Reid. Early voting numbers in Nevada indicate a very promising outlook of victory for Sharon Angle. Now granted, the next couple of states that I list are probably what are going to determine whether or not the GOP gains control of the Senate. However, in order to make this conventional and likely scenario come true, priority #1, taking Harry Reid down in Nevada must be won. Go help ensure Sharon Angle’s victory.
This is THE state east of the Mississippi which, barring a wonderful surprise in Connecticut and/or Delaware (and this is possible), is crucial to the GOP. If this state isn’t won and assuming we win Illinois, the GOP would need to sweep both Washington and California. That would be a very, very tall order. Recent polling has put Joe Manchin up about 3-4 points with polling which I would at best label suspect. PPP(D) in their final poll showing Joe Manchin up 5, had internals which when weighted out indicated a greater number of Democratic voters would show up than they did in 2008 and Manchin received 20% support from Republicans. I just don’t see how in this political environment that is even in the scope of polling sanity. John Raese would be a wonderful Senator and everything should be done to help him win. If West Virginia falls, certainly Washington and even California are likely to fall into the GOP camp. Bonus? If Raese wins, he gets seated immediately and ensures no lame-duck shenanigans.
According to early voting reports on the ground and polling of people still left to vote, Dino Rossi has about a 2-4 point lead right now. Rossi is up 5 among 76% of voters whom have already cast there ballot. It is still very, very tight though it would seem Rossi has a very substantial advantage. Rossi has an INCREDIBLE ground operation. After so many disappointments..and outright robbery of gaining higher political office, I can’t think of a person more deserving than Dino Rossi. The guy is a first-class candidate.
Carly Fiorina is definitely a trooper and has engaged one of the most grueling campaign schedules that one can imagine. Recent polling indicates that among people whom have voted already, Barbara Boxer is up only ONE point. I think this is probably the most tightest race in the country. Though all these polls show Boxer having a decent lead, the polls like in West Virginia oversample Democrats unrealistically when you compare weighting to past elections.
It looks as if Ken Buck and Mark Kirk are beginning to put some distance between themselves and their opponents. The early voting numbers out in Colorado and Illinois have been incredible to a degree such that I believe it is practically impossible for Michael Bennett or Alexi Gianoulius to win. Still nothing can be taken for granted.
In summary, we need to win 5 of these 6 races to gain control of the Senate. In a normal midterm election, I would say not a chance. However, we all know this is no ordinary midterm election. There is a wonderful chance to take back the Senate here but it cannot happen unless we all show up.
Go out and kick these Democrats’ butts with your vote and your help to these candidates today.
P.S. I have to admit, I’m so excited that I can hardly sleep.