Boom with coattails. Romney leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio and Virginia
The latest swing state polling from Rasmussen and Purple Strategies has had some alarming news for the Obama Campaign. These polls pretty much are during the period prior to or just after the Ryan VP rollout. I would have to be thinking “UH OH” given the fact that Romney has beaten Obama for 2 straight months in fundraising and Obama has shot a huge portion of his wad by trying to take out Romney early. Romney has had to hold his campaign chest for the most part legally until after the convention. I have to think that the full impact of Paul Ryan being Romney’s running mate hasn’t quite hit yet.
A Golden Opportunity For the Presidential Race to Be Won Now With Our Wallets?
Looking at the electoral vote strategy, it looks like Romney pulls off Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio today. One might think that the Romney campaign will keep a majority of their resources in advertising and ground game on these states to make sure they are in his column. But I believe there is a big opportunity right now that could win this election. If the GOP and Tea Party voters open their wallets and give the Romney/Ryan ticket a noticeable windfall and expand the fundraising gap between Romney and Obama, the race could be won now. This could allow Romney additional resources to mount a formidable advertising and ground game invasion in the reliable blue states of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, as well as independent-minded New Hampshire, and trending blue Colorado and Nevada. Pennysylvania has showed within striking distance but I would have to think that Mitt, given the choice between making a play for Michigan or Pennsylvania, would choose Michigan because of his roots there. If the fundraising gap widens, the Obama campaign will be either stretched too thin trying to defend this monstrous push or will hunker down and throw everything into holding the Midwest, pulling away valuable resources from other states.
Coattails in the Senate?
Another four alarm fire alert has to be the latest Rasmussen poll out of Ohio showing the incumbent Democratic senator Sherrod Brown and Josh Mandel in a tie, 44-44. I don’t think this is a seat that the Democrats thought they were in danger of losing as Brown has held solid leads through out the year. The Senate races in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are very, very precarious for the Democratic Party. I might even argue that Florida and Ohio are slightly leaning GOP right now, particularly Mandel in Ohio because of the momentum he has there.
With seats in Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Wisconsin likely flipping, the GOP is very possibly looking at least a 7 seat flip (assuming Massachusetts doesn’t flip back) right now taking the lean states into consideration and it could go higher. Virginia would make it 8 and then you’re left with New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Minnesota, California and Hawaii which look as likely Dem holds right now. Looking at any potential surprise pick-offs in the likely Dem hold list, I have to figure the GOP changes are best in Michigan, New Mexico, Connecticut and Hawaii. Nevada looks to be a GOP hold and though polling in Indiana shows a slight Mourdock lead according to the polls, I have to believe the Obamacare/Medicare raid debate is going to be awfully hard for Joe Donnelly to pull off because of his Obamacare vote in the House.
The current political dynamics give a visual of the Obama campaign trying to hold back the dam from breaking and being swamped. Knowing undecideds typically break against the incumbent on Election Day is probably causing some sleepless nights in the White House and in Chicago. This opportunity cannot be let to go by the wayside.