State of the race: The Romney Ryan wave is about to swamp the Blue Wall in the Rust Belt


Oh……that Romney cash advantage is starting to loom very large now like an ill-fated sledgehammer on the Obama campaign.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan.  Reliably must-have blue states for a Democratic presidential candidate to have any chance of winning the election are very, very close to falling into the Romney column.  It could be reasoned that, barring a big misstep by the Romney/Ryan ticket, Wisconsin and Iowa are already lost looking at the strategic and financial positions of both campaigns.   Mitt Romney likely has $200+ million cash on hand waiting to unleash.  This, combined with the GOP SuperPACs whom are already flushed with cash, looks to unload on Obama these next two months in the form of a massive ground game and ad campaign.  This no doubt has been building quietly, yet dauntingly, since Romney clinched the GOP primary.  First off, the state in whom Romney grew up in which is the state of Michigan.

Nate Silver wrote an article recently arguing how Michigan is not a toss-up.  There was a third poll, from EPIC-MRA which has showed some solid leads for Obama in their previous polls, showing Obama only up 3 now, 49-46.  See the polling results (barring the Kos pollster, PPP, whose polls are horribly slanted in turnout models) courtesy of Real Clear Politics:

EPIC-MRA 8/28 – 8/28 1200 LV 2.6 49 46 Obama +3
Mitchell Research 8/23 – 8/23 1277 LV 2.7 47 47 Tie
Detroit News 8/18 – 8/20 600 LV 4.0 48 42 Obama +6
Baydoun/Foster (D) 8/16 – 8/16 1733 LV 2.4 44 48 Romney +4
Mitchell Research 8/13 – 8/13 1079 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
EPIC-MRA 7/24 – 7/31 600 LV 4.0 48 42 Obama +6
Rasmussen Reports 7/23 – 7/23 500 LV 4.5 48 42 Obama +6
Mitchell Research 7/23 – 7/23 825 LV 3.4 44 45 Romney +1

There has been significant movement toward Romney since the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate.  This shouldn’t surprise as having a Midwest ticket whose candidate’s roots come from two very key states for the Democrats.  You can bet Romney is going to push hard to win this state.  If Michigan falls to the GOP, there is no way that Obama can win as it likely means we will be seeing a 300+ EV victory for Romney.  Big turnout in GOP bastions of Kent and Ottawa County combined with Romney winning Oakland and being competitive in Macomb county will the the keys to this state.


CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 8/15 – 8/21 1190 LV 3.0 49 47 Obama +2
Marquette University 8/16 – 8/19 576 LV 4.2 49 46 Obama +3
PPP (D) 8/16 – 8/19 1308 LV 2.7 47 48 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 8/15 – 8/15 500 LV 4.5 47 48 Romney +1
CNN/Opinion Research 8/13 – 8/14 920 RV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 7/31 – 8/6 1428 LV 3.0 51 45 Obama +6
Marquette University 8/2 – 8/5 1188 LV 2.9 50 45 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/25 – 7/25 500 LV 4.5 49 46 Obama +3

Probably the most alarming poll to Democrats has to be the poll from the Kos pollster, PPP, showing Romney in the lead. With a massive ground game already in place aided by Scott Walker (thank you so much unions) winning the recall election, this looks like an impossible feat for Obama to hold onto Wisconsin. Once again, Romney’s money advantage is going to play huge here.


PPP (D) 8/23 – 8/26 1244 LV 2.8 47 45 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 8/8 – 8/8 500 LV 4.5 44 46 Romney +2
PPP (D) 7/12 – 7/15 1131 RV 2.9 48 43 Obama +5

This don’t look good for the Obama campaign at all. With these three states in the toss-up category, considering the significant cash advantage for Romney, this looks very, very good. Now some of you may wonder why I am not talking about Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. It is simple. If Romney is tied in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa, there is no way it will be close in the end in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. I have to figure that Romney of course will not ignore these states along with Colorado and Nevada. However, with Romney investing a substantial amount of campaign resources (think General Patton in attacking terms here) in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia combined with making a Pennsylvania play that Obama will have to respect, this will force the Obama campaign to defend with the majority of his resources here and make it impossible to compete in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.  The Obama campaign cannot afford to lose any of these states, particularly Michigan and/or Wisconsin.  If one of those falls, it most likely is curtains.

Keep giving to the Romney campaign to make this offensive push last through Election Day.  Mitt Romney is on the cusp of winning this thing.

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