The Big, Quiet Shift in voter identification: What Rasmussen reveals foretells doom for Obama’s re-election
This is BIG.
During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.
Rasmussen has nailed the last two presidential elections. To give you an idea of how big a shift this is, Rasmussen had the party ID at a 7 point advantage for Democrats and used this for the turnout model for the polling. Rasmussen predicted a 52-46 win in 2008 and the presidential election wound up being 53-46 in favor of Obama. Obama won a majority of independents as well. Historically, the partisan ID breakdown in presidential elections is D+3. In 2004, it was D +0 with Kerry winning a majority of independents, yet losing by 3 to George W. Bush.
If the partisan ID is showing a 4(!) point GOP advantage, that represents an 11 point shift in voter identification since the 2008 election. On top of that, there is a very big difference from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, Romney is up solidly among independents. Bottom line, if the Rasmussen partisan ID index verifies as how turnout will be in November and Romney holds his lead with independents, we’re looking at an electoral result that could parallel the result we saw with George H.W. Bush in his election victory in 1992. It is still a long way to November and anything could happen. I couldn’t help but get a little excited when I saw this yesterday and just had to write a post about it.
How bad is it for the Democrats right now heading into their convention this week? Anyone notice how often Barack Obama has visited Iowa lately? Anyone notice how Barack Obama followed Mitt Romney to Louisiana to survey the damage wrought by Hurricane Isaac? Anyone notice how David Axelrod is ducking the question of whether this country is better off than it was four years ago? Anyone notice how Democrats are defending Barack Obama’s fiscal record by saying balancing the budget is a bad idea? Tell that to the people of Wisconsin and New Jersey, in whom Scott Walker and Chris Christie have most notably accomplished this feat.