The Obama campaign, rigged pollsters, and MSM psyops war to depress GOP voter turnout — Don’t lose heart
We’ve seen this all before. I have seen much wailing and consternation over Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s polling over the swing to Obama that is a result of the DNC convention bounce. This was to be expected. This bounce will fade within two weeks at worst given that awful August jobs report gut shot. Friends, we have seen all these tactics before. Let’s go over them.
COOKED POLLS TO KEEP HOPE ALIVE WITH THE DEMOCRATIC BASE AND TO DEPRESS THE GOP BASE
If you notice, the vast majority of pollsters is basing their turnout on the Democrats having a 3 to 7 point partisan ID registration advantage. Some Democratic pollsters have even resorted to distorting their ridiculously weighted polls by showing Obama winning independents by double digits with an even ratio between Democrats and Republicans. Some have shown polling samples between 8-19 points weighted toward the Democrats. This is crazy. There isn’t a chance that this is going to happen this election. I alluded to the latest data from Rasmussen showing a R+4 partisan ID voting advantage for last month, the highest registration advantage the GOP has ever had since Rasmussen has been keeping record. I have to believe that this 15,000 voter sample could be explained quite easily. The GOP has had a huge enthusiasm gap edge, showing a 12 point lead according to Gallup at last check. If this gap holds, Mitt Romney wins in November quite handily. In order for Obama to have a fighting chance, his voter base must match the enthusiasm of the GOP base. That is an incredibly hard thing to do given the awful state of our economy, our exploding debt, the very anemic job growth, and massive numbers of Americans leaving the workforce all together. The thing that the average American has to ask themselves is “Do I want four more years…of this?” So, the Obama campaign and the MSM have to use tools to depress GOP turnout and one of them is cooked polling. If Obama, by some miracle is able to gin up the Democratic base and match GOP enthusiasm to vote in November, then I think the most realistic turnout model that any honest pollster should be using is the 2004 turnout model which was 37% Democrats, 37% Republican 26% Independents. Another turnout model may be to use a model that takes a much higher voting percentage among independents. Something like 35% Democratic 35% Republican 30% Independents. This is justified by a huge number of registered Democratic voters switching their voter registration to independent.
A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.
GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.
Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.
If memory serves, I believe Moe Lane wrote about this when this article was written. There is only one thing that can be derived from this. Barack Obama has lost these independent voters and he is desperate to get them back. They have turned off to Obama because of their disappointment in him and are weighing whether to vote for Mitt Romney or just sit out the election. You now have the reason why the race is very tight.
Bottom line, these cooked polls serve to enthuse the Democratic base and depress the GOP base.
Ignoring Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama like a drum in fundraising
With Mitt Romney outraising Barack Obama since June significantly, this plays huge in the swing states. Here is my current electoral map. I have Barack Obama with 196 EV and Mitt Romney with 191 EV. The twelve states are:
- North Carolina
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
There was an excellent analysis of six swing states done (part 1) and (part 2) back in July. Here is my take on where things stand. Given how barely Barack Obama won Florida and North Carolina by the slimmest of margins, I think these are safely in the Romney camp so long as he maintains his ad and ground game presence down there. I also believe he wins Virginia because I cannot see how things have changed since Democrats were handed such a bad beating in that state in 2010. I believe Pennsylvania and New Mexico go into the Obama camp right now. However, polling shows that the races are close enough in those state that by the Romney campaign having an ad and ground game presence in these states spreads Obama thin on his resources and forces Obama not to ignore these states. This is why it is so important to donate to the Romney campaign and keep his fundraising advantage going into election day. The presidential candidate with the fundraising advantage can spread his opponent thin and pick off states that typically go to his opponent. In this case, I would say these reliable blue states that Romney has a great shot to win are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. There were some raised eyebrows when Romney left out Wisconsin and Michigan in his initial ad barrage that launched in FL, OH, NH, NC, VA, NV, CO, and IA. These states are the easiest to flip (tells you why Obama has been visiting Iowa so often lately) so it makes sense that the Romney campaign to concentrate/consolidate a good portion of his funds on these states first. The next thing to happen is if he can keep outraising Obama significantly with us giving like we have been, he can keep up the ad campaign in these states and then launch a secondary ad barrage in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. As Jennifer Rubin noted, Romney already has big ground games in these states:
The Romney-Ryan camp, I was told, has expensive ground games in these states, as well as in Pennsylvania. Saul provided the stats:
* 21 offices across the state
* More than 1 million voter contacts
* Sixth most voter contacts in the country
* Knocked on more than 100,000 doors
* 23 offices across Pennsylvania
* More voter contacts last week than any other week this cycle
* More than 1.5 million voter contacts
* Fourth most voter contacts in the country
* Knocked on more than 200,000 doors
Wisconsin (as of July 1)
* Consistently in the top five states for number of voter contacts
* 500,000th volunteer phone call made this week
* Will knock on the 150,000th door this week
* 20 “victory centers,” or campaign offices
* More than 4 million voter contacts during the recall
We will, I strongly suspect, see an ad barrage in these states soon.
Lo and behold, Mitt Romney just started running ads in Wisconsin today. So Wisconsin is the ninth state that Romney is going to concentrate the good portion of his funds in. That actually is very good news. However, Romney cannot keep his fundraising advantage and expand the map into Michigan and Pennsylvania, spreading Obama thin, unless you donate money to the Romney campaign and/or time volunteering on the phone or on the street knocking on doors.
In summary, with Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina likely in the bag, the important states are Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan. I believe that Colorado and Nevada’s outcome will be determined by GOP voters not leaving the voting lines as the results come in from the eastern and central time zone states. Why is that so important. Here is one scenario. Obama wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin and Iowa. The race would be 264 Romney 259 Obama with Romney just needing to pick off either Nevada or Colorado. Remember how the MSM called the Florida race for Gore in 2000 and all those voters in the GOP heavy panhandle went home? Vote until the polls close at their respective time or Obama gets his lawyers to keep the polls open in Democratic heavy precincts. Okay, okay, I agree it is unlikely Wisconsin and Iowa flip to Romney and Ohio doesn’t. The only way Obama gets re-elected in my opinion is if we don’t show up at the polls and don’t donate money and/or time to the Romney campaign.
A NICE LIST OF SUMMARIZING REASONS
Via Rick Wilson:
- Why the Media Predict-o-Herd is wrong. They ignore the coming ad blitz and cash advantage Romney holds.
- They’re not sensitive to the economy, but voters are. Parse it all ya want, but voters think the economy is in the dumper.
- No one wants to admit the 2008 Reverse Bradley Effect w suburban voters from 2008, but it’s gone now, and they know it.
- After 200 million against Romney and a thousand hits by press stenographers running Chicago’s hits, Romney is alive…and inoculated.
- Registration numbers in key states ain’t pretty for Obama: in 2008 Dems had a 670k reg adv in Fl and he barrrely won. Now? Only 440k. Run that model with 08 numbers and Romney wins FL, even w/o any other externalities.)
- In 2008 by this time McCain campaign was broke, largely off the air in key states and rudderless. Opposite now true.
- Media folks largely don’t get the deep rupture Obama has caused w people of faith, because they live in very secular world. From the HHS mandate to the DNC’s “Abortion Is The Awesome!” night to Dems booing God, to Israel, Team O is either tone deaf or hostile.
- The same “Democrat victory is inevitable” stories from every cycle except 84 are an echo of the era of Gang of 500 agenda power.
- Romney won the primary by a willingness to cut throats, and by surprisingly strong debate kills. Gee…
I might add:
- Jamming Obamacare down the majority of American people who didn’t want this and still don’t want this.
- Operation Fast and Furious
- Obama Administration and EPA driving up gas prices and stagnating employment with overregulation, shutting down the Keystone pipeline, abolishing offshore drilling, etc.
- The Woodward book on Obama’s arrogance and aloofness
- Saying he would never do Medicare vouchers yet Kathleen Sebelius and the HHS have started a pilot program to…you guessed it…give Medicare vouchers to seniors.
- Claiming putting $716 billion dollars back into Medicare by repealing Obamacare will accelerate Medicare’s insolvency (Nice whopper there Mr. Clinton)
- Obamacare’s tax increases on the middle class.
- How many people have left the work force since Obama was in office.
- Bad jobs reports (another one is coming in October)
That list is getting too long. I probably could think up a lot more stuff but you get the picture. The main thing to remember is that the Democrats and mainstream media would love for you to not show up and vote in November. The only way they can do that is using every tool to make you believe that Obama is going to win and it is pointless to vote, pointless to donate to the Romney campaign and GOP candidates, pointless to volunteer your time. The only way they can succeed is if you let them convince you it is hopeless.
If you have a fellow Romney supporter who is getting upset by the latest polling, forward them this post so they feel better and that they do make a difference with their money, time, and vote.
Forward — To Morning in America again — Not to Obama’s campaign slogan that leads this country to the abyss.