Ohio: A realistic analysis of where the race stands — If the GOP turns out in Ohio, Romney wins handily

The consensus is that Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado have slipped away from Barack Obama and into Mitt Romney’s column.   Indiana has been long gone for Obama for quite a while.  The shortest route for Romney to electoral victory would be to pick off Ohio and be done with it.

There is a very good analysis of the current state of Ohio done by someone who posts here at Redstate, or I have to assume this is the same Dave in Fla that posts here on occasion.  The most recent Ohio polls with the exception of the most recent poll from Suffolk today project a 2008 turnout to twice as better than 2008 for Barack Obama (a.k.a. the most recent CBS/Quinnipiac poll to name one).  Rather than get all bogged down in a sophisticated breakdown to see what is really happening in Ohio, some basic facts to keep in mind.

  1. In 2008, there was a 4.5 advantage in turnout for Democrats.
  2. In 2008, Obama won independents by 8 points.
  3. In 2010, there was a 1 point advantage in turnout for the GOP.
  4. In 2012, polls in Ohio across the board show Romney with a high single to low double digit lead among independents.
  5. There has been an enormous shift toward the GOP in the early voting numbers compared to the 2008 early voting numbers in Ohio.


About that important #5, Democratic early voting is very much down across the board in every county in Ohio.  Even in deep blue Cuyahoga county in northern Ohio, the early voting numbers are off 6% there.  The GOP early voting is actually up as well across every county.  However, the big falloff has been among Democratic early voting.  In 2008, Democrats had a 13.88 point edge in early voting.  In 2012, they have a 6.13 edge.  That’s almost a 56% drop in Obama’s early voting advantage.   If the early numbers can be used as a precursor to what the turnout of the electorate will be in Ohio, this is suggesting a D+2 electorate in Ohio and this looks to be the best case scenario regarding turnout for Obama.  However, that enthusiasm edge and the impressive Romney ground game could push this turnout needle further right as Romney voters whom haven’t voted will turn out in force on Election Day.  Remember, McCain won the Election Day vote in Ohio by 2.5 points but he got buried in the early voting.  This D+2 projection of turnout would be very realistic considering what we saw in 2008 and 2010.  Now back to Dave’s analysis as off today regarding Ohio which does factor in all of Romney’s independent support in Ohio.  Here is what he shows using turnout models from 2004 to today.  Looking at the average composite of all the recent polls documented at Real Clear Politics, here is what he came up with.

O+2.17% – Current RCP Average
R+8.92% – Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.51% – Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.72% – Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.99% – Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.84% – Average using the D+3 turnout model

If the early voting numbers are any indication of the electorate of D+2 which I think they can considered to be, I believe that Romney is up probably about 3.5-4 points right now in Ohio in the worst case scenario.  But, it is up to the voters on the right to show up for Romney.  I have no questions in my mind that they will.  The only thing preventing Democrats from going into a full blown panic is these polls that are projecting a turnout that will not be within the realm of possibility of happening this election.





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