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State of the Race — 7 days to go: Projected EV count — Romney 261 Obama 236, 41 Toss-up

As of this morning looking at the polls and trends, here is what I have.   Romney has pretty much wrapped up IN, NC, FL, and VA.  The polls showing Florida and Virginia to be close are absurd with their turnout models.  Colorado and New Hampshire are very close to being wrapped up as well.  The trend in Ohio is very good and Governor Kasich believes that Romney will win comfortably in Ohio.  The early voting numbers look absolutely catastrophic for Obama in Ohio.  I would have to agree but I’m not willing to take any chances.   Currently I have Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Maine Congressional District 2 as being toss-ups though the momentum in these states is all on the Romney side.

The big problem for Obama now is not the fact that Romney is so close to clinching this, but the fact that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota are causing the Obama campaign incredible headaches.  I have these as being a slight lean to Obama right now but the momentum is with Romney in these states as well.  If Romney picks off just one out of Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Michigan, the election is over.  This is why you see the Obama campaign buying ad time in these states now because Romney is at 261 EV.  It is not any coincidence why the Obama campaign and operatives had a fit about the Des Moines Register endorsing Romney for president. I loved Romney’s SuperPAC buying a $2 million dollar ad by playing in all the Pennsylvania markets, including Philadelphia.  Romney, the RNC, and the GOP SuperPACs cash advantage has stretched Obama incredibly thin and they are playing this perfectly from a strategic standpoint.

Romney is on the cusp of winning this thing.  It’s all about getting out the vote and going to vote now.   Short diary yes, but I wanted to throw out there what I have and see what other people are thinking out there.

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