I was not a math major in college, but I was a history major, and I have always been interested in the presidential elections. Combining both disciplines, I was inspired to determine the winner of the 2012 election through math, although I will write a disclaimer stating that my math MIGHT be shady, and of course, nothing is 100% accurate (unless God is concerned). Therefore, here is my method, and the results, of my study:
I began in 1856, the first year the GOP ran on a national ticket. I ended with 2008. Using a spreadsheet, I organized the following information:
1. Number of EVs per party—Democrat, GOP, 3rd & 4th parties
2. Number of PVs per pary—Democrat, GOP, 3rd & 4th parties
3. % of total EVs
4. % of total PVs
5. “Trend” (which party/parties trended better within each given election cycle)
Historically, from 1856—2008, the GOP has trended better in national elections than Democrats, 17 elected presidents to 11. The GOP has also fared better in the Electoral College 53%—46%, averaging 252 EVs over 219. In terms of popular vote, both parties are almost dead even, but the GOP has a slight edge: 49%—46%, with the GOP averaging 22,481,558 votes to 21,896,644. Historically, the GOP trends better in succession, meaning that multiple Republicans have succeeded each other than Democrats. Democrats, historically speaking, have been one-term presidents, with a few minor exceptions.
Wilson was elected twice, the first because of a split in the GOP (Teddy v. Taft), and his second because of WWI. FDR was elected four times because of the Depression (and there were no term limits for presidents). Truman and Johnson only had one “elected” term each. Clinton is the second Democrat between 1856—2008 to have been elected to two terms. The GOP has trended better in terms of succession, but three GOP presidents died in office. Every Democrat who was elected has been replaced with a Republican the following election year. Democrats have been elected during times of international crisis or general “economic fear” within the country. The GOP is usually electable during times of economic prosperity. Historically, the GOP has left office with the economy in good standing. Historically, when a 3rd party candidate wins a national ticket, it has benefitted Democrats.
I have the chart I made if anyone wishes to see it. I predict Romney will win.