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Nov 3 Bellwether Special Election – MI State Senate District 19

While most of the hype for 2009 is for the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, we have several important elections here in Michigan.

The big one here is the 19th State Senatorial District race.  This one is up for grabs.

The 19th District covers all of Calhoun County, which is slightly democrat leaning in most years, but was won by Bush in 2004. It voted for Gore, Granholm twice, and Obama. It has two state rep districts, one of which shared with Kalamazoo County. The shared district leans Republican, not overwhelmingly so. The other district leans democrat. It was Mark Schauer’s district before it voted for Nofs. After it voted for Nofs, it voted for another democrat, Kate Segal, by a large margin.

Jackson County is more competitive and usually slightly republican leaning, but voted for Granholm once and Obama once. It did vote for Bush twice and Posthumus once. The state rep districts were Republican districts for awhile until the 2006 elections where Marty Griffin and Mike Simpson both won in Districts 64 and 65. Griffin is the former mayor of Jackson and the Current state rep in District 64.

Mike Nofs (R) and Marty Griffin (D) are facing off for this seat. Mike Nofs is from Battle Creek and has a knack of winning difficult races that Republicans have difficulty winning. So does Marty Griffin on the democrats side.

62nd District State Rep Results
2002:

62th District Mike Nofs Ted Dearing GOP% Dem%
City of Albion 744 1380 35.03% 64.97%
Albion Twp 253 156 61.86% 38.14%
Athens Twp 538 316 63.00% 37.00%
City of Battle Creek (99%) 6819 6937 49.57% 50.43%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct) 12 13 48.00% 52.00%
Burlington Township 357 226 61.23% 38.77%
Clarence Twp 456 244 65.14% 34.86%
Clarendon Twp 204 90 69.39% 30.61%
Convis Twp 398 162 71.07% 28.93%
Eckford Twp 344 148 69.92% 30.08%
Fredonia Twp 404 207 66.12% 33.88%
Homer Twp 459 260 63.84% 36.16%
Lee Twp 237 118 66.76% 33.24%
Leroy Twp 794 504 61.17% 38.83%
Marengo Twp 469 235 66.62% 33.38%
Sheridan Twp 326 247 56.89% 43.11%
Springfield City 476 560 45.95% 54.05%
Tekonsha Twp 329 183 64.26% 35.74%
TOTAL 13619 11986 53.19% 46.81%

That’s impressive in that district. Albion and Battle Creek are the two most democrat parts of the county, with Springfield right behind that. That was an open seat race, where they voted for Granholm and then voted for Nofs. The 2004 race was more impressive. Nofs won Battle Creek this time. Democrats can not win this district if they don’t win Battle Creek by a large margin. Albion alone is not big enough for them to pull this off. 2004 was a good year for Bush in Calhoun County, and that may have helped.

62th District Mike Nofs Lynne Hayley GOP% Dem%
City of Albion 974 2033 32.39% 67.61%
Albion Twp 344 248 58.11% 41.89%
Athens Twp 839 443 65.44% 34.56%
City of Battle Creek (99%) 10917 10497 50.98% 49.02%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct) 24 16 60.00% 40.00%
Burlington Township 507 359 58.55% 41.45%
Clarence Twp 653 342 65.63% 34.37%
Clarendon Twp 345 198 63.54% 36.46%
Convis Twp 547 299 64.66% 35.34%
Eckford Twp 467 224 67.58% 32.42%
Fredonia Twp 544 351 60.78% 39.22%
Homer Twp 697 505 57.99% 42.01%
Lee Twp 329 209 61.15% 38.85%
Leroy Twp 1303 705 64.89% 35.11%
Marengo Twp 649 353 64.77% 35.23%
Sheridan Twp 449 356 55.78% 44.22%
Springfield City 862 958 47.36% 52.64%
Tekonsha Twp 486 313 60.83% 39.17%
TOTAL 20936 18409 53.21% 46.79%

Then there’s the democrat landslide year of 2006. Nofs survives a rematch with Lynne Haley, despite a disaster in most of the state among state reps. Most impressively, he won the City of Battle Creek once again. It’s usually the townships if anything that make Republicans competitive in Calhoun County.

62th District Mike Nofs Lynne Hayley GOP% Dem%
City of Albion 695 1406 33.08% 66.92%
Albion Twp 291 200 59.27% 40.73%
Athens Twp 586 320 64.68% 35.32%
City of Battle Creek (99%) 8102 7432 52.16% 47.84%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct) 24 16 60.00% 40.00%
Burlington Township 405 317 56.09% 43.91%
Clarence Twp 516 316 62.02% 37.98%
Clarendon Twp 268 162 62.33% 37.67%
Convis Twp 380 261 59.28% 40.72%
Eckford Twp 357 190 65.27% 34.73%
Fredonia Twp 413 313 56.89% 43.11%
Homer Twp 496 329 60.12% 39.88%
Lee Twp 264 179 59.59% 40.41%
Leroy Twp 1052 609 63.34% 36.66%
Marengo Twp 506 295 63.17% 36.83%
Sheridan Twp 358 293 54.99% 45.01%
Springfield City 572 649 46.85% 53.15%
Tekonsha Twp 364 252 59.09% 40.91%
TOTAL 15649 13539 53.61% 46.39%

Three wins. The other district in Calhoun County was and still is held by a Republican state rep. That’s the one with Marshall and some of the more Southwestern townships. While one precinct in Battle Creek and all but one precinct of Bedford Township is in the other Calhoun district.

Now to Griffin’s State Rep district. Griffin ran three times in this district. He lost in 2004 in a close battle where he ran well ahead of John Kerry who bombed badly in Jackson County. He came back and won twice. Griffin wan well even in some GOP leaning townships there, like Summit. 2004 was an Open Seat. 2006 was a rematch. 2008 was a trouncing.

64th District Baxter Griffin GOP% Dem%
Concord Township 797 483 61.74% 37.41%
Hanover Township 1158 719 61.14% 37.96%
City of Jackson 4540 7497 37.29% 61.58%
Napoleon Township 1701 1544 52.18% 47.36%
Parma Township 671 510 56.58% 43.00%
Pulaski Township 636 334 65.36% 34.33%
Sandstone Township 1169 678 62.71% 36.37%
Spring Arbor Township 2537 1204 67.06% 31.83%
Summit Township 5578 5460 49.41% 48.37%
TOTAL 18787 18429 49.81% 48.87%

Spring Arbor is the top GOP area by percentage, and Baxter was from the townships. Hanover, I believe. Maybe Parma. They rematched in 2006, where the State turned against the GOP in a big way. Griffin took advantage of both that, and his 2004 results which were a “moral victory” of sorts in the future. Summit and Napoleon Townships flipped, and Spring Arbor wasn’t enough for Baxter. Too bad, since he’s a good guy.

64th District Baxter Griffin GOP% Dem%
Concord Township 665 409 61.92% 38.08%
Hanover Township 829 711 53.83% 46.17%
City of Jackson 3018 5703 34.61% 65.39%
Napoleon Township 1337 1359 49.59% 50.41%
Parma Township 488 478 50.52% 49.48%
Pulaski Township 484 297 61.97% 38.03%
Sandstone Township 905 659 57.86% 42.14%
Spring Arbor Township 1967 1161 62.88% 37.12%
Summit Township 4485 4926 47.66% 52.34%
TOTAL 14178 15703 47.45% 52.55%

And 2008 wasn’t even close. Leland Prebble was thrown to the wolves and didn’t get the support he needed to give Griffin the tough race he needed.

64th District Prebble Griffin GOP% Dem%
Concord Township 676 661 50.56% 49.44%
Hanover Township 878 991 46.98% 53.02%
City of Jackson 2994 9725 23.54% 76.46%
Napoleon Township 1249 2045 37.92% 62.08%
Parma Township 538 662 44.83% 55.17%
Pulaski Township 506 438 53.60% 46.40%
Sandstone Township 970 951 50.49% 49.51%
Spring Arbor Township 2154 1604 57.32% 42.68%
Summit Township 4489 7183 38.46% 61.54%
TOTAL 14454 24260 37.34% 62.66%

That’s the election history of those two strong candidates in their state rep districts. Mark Schauer, from Battle Creek, left the 19th Vacant. He ran against Mickey Mortimer in the 19th in 2002 in a race that should have been more competitive than it was. Mortimer, a state rep from Jackson County, won the portion of Jackson County in the district, but lost bad in Calhoun County. For the State Senate District, 2002 was a competitive attempt, but a big win by Schauer. In 2006, in a very, very, very, poor move from the GOP to not challenge Schauer. Fulton was thrown to the wolves. It was not secret that Schauer wanted to go to Congress. He should have been hit hard in 06, and also recalled in 07/08 for his tax increase vote. That didn’t happen, and he beat Walberg narrowly.

The 19th has ALL of Calhoun County, but NOT all of Jackson County. It does not contain Grass Lake Township, Leoni Township, Norvell Township, and Summit Township. That favors Nofs. Griffin ran well in Summit Township, and Leoni Township is a swing township at the top of the ticket which hurts Griffin since he’s a near homer there. Here’s the 2002 results.

19th District Mortimer Schauer GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 551 1575 25.92% 74.08%
Albion Township 185 225 45.12% 54.88%
City of Battle Creek 4709 9048 34.23% 65.77%
Bedford Township 1062 1953 35.22% 64.78%
Burlington Township 263 319 45.19% 54.81%
Clarence Township 403 305 56.92% 43.08%
Clarendon Township 173 125 58.05% 41.95%
Convis Township 291 270 51.87% 48.13%
Eckford Township 274 217 55.80% 44.20%
Emmett Township 1467 2257 39.39% 60.61%
Fredonia Township 276 333 45.32% 54.68%
Homer Township 382 335 53.28% 46.72%
Lee Township 188 168 52.81% 47.19%
Leroy Township 595 697 46.05% 53.95%
Marengo Township 345 360 48.94% 51.06%
City of Marshall 1025 1498 40.63% 59.37%
Marshall Township 593 641 48.06% 51.94%
Newton Township 422 616 40.66% 59.34%
Pennfield Township 1244 1822 40.57% 59.43%
Sheridan Township 261 315 45.31% 54.69%
Springfield City 318 719 30.67% 69.33%
Tekonsha Township 224 288 43.75% 56.25%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 2472 2557 49.15% 50.85%
Columbia Township 1596 1167 57.76% 42.24%
Concord Township 495 348 58.72% 41.28%
Hanover Township 771 500 60.66% 39.34%
Henrietta Township 702 715 49.54% 50.46%
City of Jackson 3106 4501 40.83% 59.17%
Liberty Township 704 482 59.36% 40.64%
Napoleon Township 1178 1075 52.29% 47.71%
Parma Township 441 440 50.06% 49.94%
Pulaski Township 394 256 60.62% 39.38%
Rives Township 881 707 55.48% 44.52%
Sandstone Township 780 500 60.94% 39.06%
Spring Arbor Township 1848 803 69.71% 30.29%
Springport Township 325 267 54.90% 45.10%
Tompkins Township 446 386 53.61% 46.39%
Waterloo Township 469 455 50.76% 49.24%
TOTAL 31859 39245 44.81% 55.19%

Calhoun County is democrat, but it’s not THAT democrat. Not 61%. Even Obama couldn’t do what Schauer did, and 2002 was a good Republican year in Michigan outside of the governor’s race and US Senate race. Congress, AG, Sec of State, State House and State Senate were all positive that year. 2006 was a disaster all around. Don’t blame Fulton. She was thrown to the wolves. Here’s 2006. (I missed Athens Township from 02 in the Mortimer Race).

19th District Fulton Schauer GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 420 1691 19.90% 80.10%
Albion Township 198 291 40.49% 59.51%
Athens Township 420 489 46.20% 53.80%
City of Battle Creek 4848 10848 30.89% 69.11%
Bedford Township 1178 2323 33.65% 66.35%
Burlington Township 288 421 40.62% 59.38%
Clarence Township 387 441 46.74% 53.26%
Clarendon Township 191 237 44.63% 55.37%
Convis Township 279 353 44.15% 55.85%
Eckford Township 260 283 47.88% 52.12%
Emmett Township 1455 2728 34.78% 65.22%
Fredonia Township 283 438 39.25% 60.75%
Homer Township 391 439 47.11% 52.89%
Lee Township 193 244 44.16% 55.84%
Leroy Township 736 935 44.05% 55.95%
Marengo Township 333 467 41.63% 58.38%
City of Marshall 1011 1915 34.55% 65.45%
Marshall Township 619 892 40.97% 59.03%
Newton Township 446 778 36.44% 63.56%
Pennfield Township 1268 2162 36.97% 63.03%
Sheridan Township 233 424 35.46% 64.54%
Springfield City 334 887 27.35% 72.65%
Tekonsha Township 209 406 33.98% 66.02%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 2406 3258 42.48% 57.52%
Columbia Township 1589 1770 47.31% 52.69%
Concord Township 534 505 51.40% 48.60%
Hanover Township 689 803 46.18% 53.82%
Henrietta Township 733 966 43.14% 56.86%
City of Jackson 2749 5792 32.19% 67.81%
Liberty Township 692 630 52.34% 47.66%
Napoleon Township 1099 1522 41.93% 58.07%
Parma Township 418 526 44.28% 55.72%
Pulaski Township 439 319 57.92% 42.08%
Rives Township 929 855 52.07% 47.93%
Sandstone Township 801 705 53.19% 46.81%
Spring Arbor Township 1752 1287 57.65% 42.35%
Springport Township 354 390 47.58% 52.42%
Tompkins Township 454 544 45.49% 54.51%
Waterloo Township 450 648 40.98% 59.02%
TOTAL 32068 50612 38.79% 61.21%

Those are the state rep and state senate races relevant to the district. For comparison’s sake, I’ll show the gubernatorial and presidential numbers as well. Here’s 2000.

19th District Bush Gore GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 784 2022 27.31% 70.43%
Albion Township 291 222 54.29% 41.42%
Athens Township 636 442 57.50% 39.96%
City of Battle Creek 8517 10235 44.28% 53.22%
Bedford Township 1905 2233 44.83% 52.55%
Burlington Township 426 311 55.98% 40.87%
Clarence Township 550 377 57.35% 39.31%
Clarendon Township 252 176 58.06% 40.55%
Convis Township 453 266 61.22% 35.95%
Eckford Township 381 256 59.16% 39.75%
Emmett Township 2518 2339 50.49% 46.90%
Fredonia Township 418 337 53.38% 43.04%
Homer Township 487 447 50.57% 46.42%
Lee Township 291 192 58.55% 38.63%
Leroy Township 927 697 55.64% 41.84%
Marengo Township 546 365 58.09% 38.83%
City of Marshall 1704 1605 49.52% 46.64%
Marshall Township 906 681 55.79% 41.93%
Newton Township 735 609 53.30% 44.16%
Pennfield Township 2202 1874 52.59% 44.76%
Sheridan Township 365 362 48.60% 48.20%
Springfield City 646 926 39.85% 57.13%
Tekonsha Township 349 338 49.64% 48.08%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 3249 3202 49.26% 48.55%
Columbia Township 2077 1541 55.67% 41.30%
Concord Township 713 421 60.89% 35.95%
Hanover Township 980 665 58.51% 39.70%
Henrietta Township 927 798 52.17% 44.91%
City of Jackson 4259 6431 38.72% 58.46%
Liberty Township 845 546 59.17% 38.24%
Napoleon Township 1521 1477 49.30% 47.88%
Parma Township 586 497 51.72% 43.87%
Pulaski Township 473 313 58.18% 38.50%
Rives Township 1229 802 59.26% 38.67%
Sandstone Township 1023 576 62.61% 35.25%
Spring Arbor Township 2262 1032 67.36% 30.73%
Springport Township 441 330 55.13% 41.25%
Tompkins Township 652 485 56.40% 41.96%
Waterloo Township 598 561 49.42% 46.36%
TOTAL 48124 46989 49.25% 48.09%

Al Gore won Calhoun by 1000 votes. Bush beat Gore in Jackson County (as a whole) by 4000 votes. However, Summit Township, where Griffin did so well, also went for Bush by 1700 votes in 2000. Is that township not being in this district a Griffin or a GOP advantage in 2009? I don’t know. Leoni went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, but Grass Lake and Norvell Townships went for Bush twice. From a party-only standpoint, Removing those four township hurt the GOP. From a geographic standpoint, just the opposite as they helped Griffin. In the gubenatorial race of 02, here’s Posthumus vs Granholm. Schauer and Nofs also were on the ballot here. Griffin was not on the ballot.

19th District Posthumus Granholm GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 612 1502 28.54% 70.06%
Albion Township 228 185 54.29% 44.05%
Athens Township 474 376 55.18% 43.77%
City of Battle Creek 5843 7812 42.34% 56.60%
Bedford Township 1325 1671 43.85% 55.29%
Burlington Township 322 262 54.67% 44.48%
Clarence Township 427 288 59.31% 40.00%
Clarendon Township 187 115 61.72% 37.95%
Convis Township 318 245 56.18% 43.29%
Eckford Township 307 191 61.03% 37.97%
Emmett Township 1813 1903 48.26% 50.65%
Fredonia Township 323 288 52.35% 46.68%
Homer Township 386 337 52.73% 46.04%
Lee Township 215 141 59.72% 39.17%
Leroy Township 707 591 54.01% 45.15%
Marengo Township 403 302 56.76% 42.54%
City of Marshall 1243 1296 48.40% 50.47%
Marshall Township 666 571 53.54% 45.90%
Newton Township 536 514 50.76% 48.67%
Pennfield Township 1523 1522 49.48% 49.45%
Sheridan Township 286 292 48.89% 49.91%
Springfield City 389 641 37.44% 61.69%
Tekonsha Township 256 253 49.71% 49.13%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 2446 2611 47.83% 51.06%
Columbia Township 1570 1242 55.20% 43.67%
Concord Township 513 354 58.49% 40.36%
Hanover Township 750 533 58.09% 41.29%
Henrietta Township 734 682 51.04% 47.43%
City of Jackson 3061 4540 39.67% 58.84%
Liberty Township 694 491 57.83% 40.92%
Napoleon Township 1114 1151 48.29% 49.89%
Parma Township 473 414 52.38% 45.85%
Pulaski Township 388 257 59.24% 39.24%
Rives Township 969 628 59.78% 38.74%
Sandstone Township 771 509 59.58% 39.34%
Spring Arbor Township 1776 888 66.15% 33.07%
Springport Township 355 242 58.87% 40.13%
Tompkins Township 481 355 56.46% 41.67%
Waterloo Township 500 431 52.52% 45.27%
TOTAL 35384 36626 48.57% 50.28%

Granholm won the district in 2002, even though Posthumus ran better overall in the state than Bush. I think the big reason is state workers. Jackson has or had at least a large number of people working in the prison system. A lot of commuters as well live in the district. Calhoun County is straight down I-69 from Lansing. Jackson is straight down US-127. Don’t forget the teachers and MEA. Even some of the social conservatives will go democrat in state races because of funding. This district remains close for the most part, but this district was more pro-Bush than it normally would be for a Republican in 2004. This is the high point for the GOP in this district. Bush actually won Calhoun County by 2200 votes , as well as Jackson County (all of it) by 9000 votes (2300 in Summit township, which Griffin barely lost that year). Bush didn’t hurt Nofs, and he probably beat Griffin, who wasn’t an unknown then as he was Jackson’s mayor.

19th District Bush Kerry GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 898 2174 28.94% 70.06%
Albion Township 336 265 55.17% 43.51%
Athens Township 784 499 60.68% 38.62%
City of Battle Creek 10314 11583 46.59% 52.32%
Bedford Township 2262 2264 49.40% 49.44%
Burlington Township 494 389 55.07% 43.37%
Clarence Township 640 376 62.26% 36.58%
Clarendon Township 335 221 59.71% 39.39%
Convis Township 500 355 57.21% 40.62%
Eckford Township 460 255 63.80% 35.37%
Emmett Township 3171 2508 55.29% 43.73%
Fredonia Township 532 372 57.83% 40.43%
Homer Township 653 474 57.38% 41.65%
Lee Township 339 214 60.75% 38.35%
Leroy Township 1297 773 62.33% 37.15%
Marengo Township 642 380 62.09% 36.75%
City of Marshall 2012 1713 53.50% 45.55%
Marshall Township 1098 723 59.74% 39.34%
Newton Township 889 621 58.33% 40.75%
Pennfield Township 2680 1969 56.86% 41.78%
Sheridan Township 428 394 51.20% 47.13%
Springfield City 877 1005 46.16% 52.89%
Tekonsha Township 454 364 54.70% 43.86%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 4258 3454 54.69% 44.37%
Columbia Township 2532 1693 59.42% 39.73%
Concord Township 843 483 62.72% 35.94%
Hanover Township 1199 745 61.17% 38.01%
Henrietta Township 1196 952 55.06% 43.83%
City of Jackson 5257 7142 41.93% 56.97%
Liberty Township 1106 610 64.04% 35.32%
Napoleon Township 1893 1494 55.32% 43.66%
Parma Township 714 523 57.21% 41.91%
Pulaski Township 635 363 62.75% 35.87%
Rives Township 1464 809 63.62% 35.16%
Sandstone Township 1293 626 66.68% 32.28%
Spring Arbor Township 2763 1105 70.77% 28.30%
Springport Township 577 332 62.45% 35.93%
Tompkins Township 772 537 58.62% 40.77%
Waterloo Township 771 701 51.92% 47.21%
TOTAL 59368 51460 53.00% 45.94%

53% is damn good in this district, and that was by both narrowing the gap in Battle Creek, Springfield, and Jackson, and also racking up numbers in the townships. 2006 was ugly, as was 2008. Dick DeVos was wrongly painted as an outsourcer of jobs, but there was Bush fatigue and ugly corruption with many in leadership. 2008 was no different, with McCain quitting. This is a populist district, and while it is conservative, it is not republican by any stretch of the imagination. That’s particular true in the townships. Here’s 2006.

19th District DeVos Granholm GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 539 1606 24.83% 73.98%
Albion Township 245 256 48.32% 50.49%
Athens Township 459 467 49.14% 50.00%
City of Battle Creek 6069 9580 38.20% 60.30%
Bedford Township 1447 2057 40.67% 57.81%
Burlington Township 324 395 44.32% 54.04%
Clarence Township 445 405 51.56% 46.93%
Clarendon Township 215 222 48.75% 50.34%
Convis Township 312 327 47.71% 50.00%
Eckford Township 300 269 52.45% 47.03%
Emmett Township 1866 2334 43.85% 54.85%
Fredonia Township 311 422 41.86% 56.80%
Homer Township 423 428 48.96% 49.54%
Lee Township 249 204 54.01% 44.25%
Leroy Township 873 820 50.90% 47.81%
Marengo Township 420 390 50.85% 47.22%
City of Marshall 1299 1676 42.89% 55.33%
Marshall Township 751 789 48.20% 50.64%
Newton Township 565 666 45.38% 53.49%
Pennfield Township 1569 1875 44.84% 53.59%
Sheridan Township 296 365 43.92% 54.15%
Springfield City 461 761 37.03% 61.12%
Tekonsha Township 267 360 41.78% 56.34%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 2772 3087 46.75% 52.06%
Columbia Township 1843 1659 51.92% 46.73%
Concord Township 598 492 54.02% 44.44%
Hanover Township 819 721 52.23% 45.98%
Henrietta Township 829 928 46.29% 51.81%
City of Jackson 3370 5381 37.89% 60.51%
Liberty Township 788 604 56.01% 42.93%
Napoleon Township 1319 1437 46.99% 51.19%
Parma Township 468 504 46.89% 50.50%
Pulaski Township 451 341 56.16% 42.47%
Rives Township 1039 849 54.26% 44.33%
Sandstone Township 924 662 57.46% 41.17%
Spring Arbor Township 1992 1154 62.74% 36.35%
Springport Township 422 352 53.15% 44.33%
Tompkins Township 523 523 48.92% 48.92%
Waterloo Township 511 633 43.94% 54.43%
TOTAL 38373 46001 44.80% 53.71%

That was bad, and so is 2008. Keep in mind that DeVos and McCain both won Summit Township which is in a different district, but was one of Griffin’s stronger areas. Here’s 08. Not quite as bad as 06, but close. 08 was more high democrat because of Albion, Battle Creek, and Jackson City which has more minorities. It wasn’t AS across the board as 06, but McCain won many of those areas which Bush won big by lower margins. Bush won Marshall twice, which is a key area here. Nofs did not represent Marshall as a state rep. Griffin can win if he wins that area. Here’s 08.

19th District McCain Obama GOP% Dem%
Calhoun County:
City of Albion 719 2584 21.51% 77.32%
Albion Township 301 283 51.02% 47.97%
Athens Township 660 564 52.51% 44.87%
City of Battle Creek 8916 13975 38.41% 60.21%
Bedford Township 2128 2583 44.37% 53.86%
Burlington Township 488 398 53.80% 43.88%
Clarence Township 547 439 54.48% 43.73%
Clarendon Township 315 231 56.25% 41.25%
Convis Township 439 357 53.73% 43.70%
Eckford Township 452 263 61.92% 36.03%
Emmett Township 2848 2840 49.28% 49.14%
Fredonia Township 471 392 53.16% 44.24%
Homer Township 516 561 46.70% 50.77%
Lee Township 300 220 56.07% 41.12%
Leroy Township 1289 885 58.48% 40.15%
Marengo Township 581 463 54.50% 43.43%
City of Marshall 1733 1931 46.51% 51.83%
Marshall Township 1074 807 56.08% 42.14%
Newton Township 886 647 56.72% 41.42%
Pennfield Township 2405 2218 51.01% 47.04%
Sheridan Township 412 390 49.70% 47.04%
Springfield City 689 1132 37.24% 61.19%
Tekonsha Township 357 398 45.71% 50.96%
Jackson County:
Blackman Township 3646 4204 45.65% 52.64%
Columbia Township 2265 2011 52.09% 46.25%
Concord Township 758 633 53.72% 44.86%
Hanover Township 1096 843 55.75% 42.88%
Henrietta Township 1161 1153 49.19% 48.86%
City of Jackson 4162 8856 31.47% 66.96%
Liberty Township 1015 713 57.70% 40.53%
Napoleon Township 1733 1712 49.32% 48.72%
Parma Township 629 618 49.37% 48.51%
Pulaski Township 579 405 57.67% 40.34%
Rives Township 1317 1005 55.34% 42.23%
Sandstone Township 1203 782 59.14% 38.45%
Spring Arbor Township 2460 1418 62.64% 36.11%
Springport Township 551 425 54.88% 42.33%
Tompkins Township 710 631 51.45% 45.72%
Waterloo Township 650 787 44.52% 53.90%
TOTAL 52461 60757 45.54% 52.74%

2008 is almost a reverse of 2004 Bush by percentage. It wasn’t quite the low watermark of 2006, but it damn well close. That’s why this special election is so important. This district mirrors much of America. You have industrial cities (Battle Creek, Jackson, Albion). You have a swing small town in middle America (Marshall). You have a conservative college anchoring Spring Arbor. You have a liberal college in Albion. You have a sizable minority population in Albion, Jackson, and Battle Creek. There are a lot of rural areas as well. None of the areas outside of Albion are uber-democrat. None of the areas outside of Spring Arbor are sizable and uber-Republican. It’s a populist district and leans right on social issues, but centrist to slightly left of center on economic issues. It does not trust big business. It doesn’t trust the federal government much either, but state government is a different story. Lansing isn’t far from here.

It will be a very interesting race, and while Virginia and New Jersey have the hype, this is one to watch as well. The 19th District mirrors America well, and its performance in this special election will turn some heads, no matter who wins.

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