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Detailed Profile of 1st Congressional District (MI-01)

Michigan’s 1st District – Congress
Incumbent – Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) – Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election – 18.
Cook District Numbers – R+3

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama – 50%
McCain – 48%
2004:
Bush – 53%
Kerry – 46%
2000:
Bush 52%
Gore 45%

The  1st District is the largest district in Michigan in terms of area. It covers all of the UP, and most of Northeastern Lower Michigan as well, along with a few other Northern Michigan Counties.
It covers:
The U.P. – Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft Counties.
Northern Michigan – Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Gladwin, Iosco, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Otsego, and Presque Isle Counties.
Bay County -  Beaver, Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Monitor (precinct 3,5), Mount Forest, Pinconning, and Williams Townships. Also the City of Auburn, City of Pinconning, and precinct 1 in the City of Midland (most of which is in Midland County) is included.
There are a lot of ticket splitting counties there. All of Stupak’s contests under the current borders have essentially been the same, so I’m going to nitpick all of them. His weakest showing was actually in the democrat year of 2008. That’s because his opponent was Tom Casperson, a former state rep, instead of Don Hooper who has low name ID. Stupak ran 15% ahead of Obama, instead of 20% ahead of John Kerry. That’s like going 12-4 in NFL football instead of 14-2 because you played the Vikings and Steelers instead of the Browns and Lions….and you’re still the 1980′s 49′ers.
The most recent election here was 2008. It was like the others in results, although Casperson, who comes from the same state rep district as Stupak, actually did the best this decade against Stupak. That was due to his reducing the loss in Delta County.
2008 Election Casperson Stupak 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 2,183 4,003 139 6,325 -1820 34.51% 63.29% -28.77%
Alger 1,594 3,054 68 4,716 -1460 33.80% 64.76% -30.96%
Alpena 4,095 10,613 272 14,980 -6518 27.34% 70.85% -43.51%
Antrim 5,510 7,721 378 13,609 -2211 40.49% 56.73% -16.25%
Arenac 2,434 5,041 289 7,764 -2607 31.35% 64.93% -33.58%
Baraga 1,224 2,352 54 3,630 -1128 33.72% 64.79% -31.07%
Bay 4,980 10,448 589 16,017 -5468 31.09% 65.23% -34.14%
Charlevoix 5,199 8,596 408 14,203 -3397 36.60% 60.52% -23.92%
Cheboygan 4,282 9,139 276 13,697 -4857 31.26% 66.72% -35.46%
Chippewa 4,460 11,710 362 16,532 -7250 26.98% 70.83% -43.85%
Crawford 2,245 4,500 242 6,987 -2255 32.13% 64.41% -32.27%
Delta 7,857 11,099 125 19,081 -3242 41.18% 58.17% -16.99%
Dickinson 5,108 8,041 162 13,311 -2933 38.37% 60.41% -22.03%
Emmet 6,933 10,353 489 17,775 -3420 39.00% 58.24% -19.24%
Gladwin 4,488 7,880 460 12,828 -3392 34.99% 61.43% -26.44%
Gogebic 1,974 5,998 212 8,184 -4024 24.12% 73.29% -49.17%
Houghton 5,797 9,714 304 15,815 -3917 36.66% 61.42% -24.77%
Iosco 3,898 9,649 340 13,887 -5751 28.07% 69.48% -41.41%
Iron 1,825 4,269 73 6,167 -2444 29.59% 69.22% -39.63%
Keweenaw 544 831 29 1,404 -287 38.75% 59.19% -20.44%
Luce 892 1,767 59 2,718 -875 32.82% 65.01% -32.19%
Mackinac 1,864 4,366 109 6,339 -2502 29.41% 68.88% -39.47%
Marquette 8,853 23,550 616 33,019 -14697 26.81% 71.32% -44.51%
Menominee 3,687 7,214 112 11,013 -3527 33.48% 65.50% -32.03%
Montmorency 1,641 3,490 135 5,266 -1849 31.16% 66.27% -35.11%
Ogemaw 3,088 6,963 317 10,368 -3875 29.78% 67.16% -37.37%
Ontonagon 1,088 2,705 97 3,890 -1617 27.97% 69.54% -41.57%
Oscoda 1,425 2,677 130 4,232 -1252 33.67% 63.26% -29.58%
Otsego 4,505 7,632 271 12,408 -3127 36.31% 61.51% -25.20%
Presque Isle 2,168 5,097 174 7,439 -2929 29.14% 68.52% -39.37%
Schoolcraft 1,499 2,744 66 4,309 -1245 34.79% 63.68% -28.89%
Total 107,340 213,216 7,357 327,913 -105876 32.73% 65.02% -32.29%
Casperson’s best counties were Republican base counties outside of Delta County, which says much about Stupak’s crossover strength. What makes this district so difficult is that not only is it gigantic in area, it is very rural. Marquette County, by far the largest in population, had about 10% of the vote in the congressional election.  It’s not all that much different in the presidential races, which I’ll throw in.The largest portion is only 10% of the vote. There’s no dominating region, even if you split Yooper and Troll (in the district) regions. There isn’t a lot of difference anymore between “Yooper” and Northeastern “Trolls” in voting. 150,784 of the votes were Yoopers which went 51.90% for Obama and 46.19% for McCain (which I think is still lower than Dukakis, and much lower than Clinton). McCain won the Northern lower portion 49.64% to 48.47%. Much of the wins are from the portions of the district closer to Lake Michigan than Lake Huron (Emmett, Otsego, Antrim Counties)
2008 Election McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 3,404 2,896 120 6,420 508 53.02% 45.11% 7.91%
Alger 2,188 2,472 87 4,747 -284 46.09% 52.07% -5.98%
Alpena 7,125 7,705 255 15,085 -580 47.23% 51.08% -3.84%
Antrim 7,506 6,079 267 13,852 1427 54.19% 43.89% 10.30%
Arenac 3,807 4,155 166 8,128 -348 46.84% 51.12% -4.28%
Baraga 1,846 1,725 73 3,644 121 50.66% 47.34% 3.32%
Bay 0 0 0 - 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 7,306 6,817 244 14,367 489 50.85% 47.45% 3.40%
Cheboygan 6,920 6,720 261 13,901 200 49.78% 48.34% 1.44%
Chippewa 8,267 8,184 257 16,708 83 49.48% 48.98% 0.50%
Crawford 3,561 3,441 176 7,178 120 49.61% 47.94% 1.67%
Delta 8,763 9,974 329 19,066 -1211 45.96% 52.31% -6.35%
Dickinson 7,049 5,995 267 13,311 1054 52.96% 45.04% 7.92%
Emmet 9,314 8,515 320 18,149 799 51.32% 46.92% 4.40%
Gladwin 6,391 6,590 145 13,126 -199 48.69% 50.21% -1.52%
Gogebic 3,330 4,757 177 8,264 -1427 40.30% 57.56% -17.27%
Houghton 8,101 7,476 365 15,942 625 50.82% 46.89% 3.92%
Iosco 6,583 7,309 295 14,187 -726 46.40% 51.52% -5.12%
Iron 2,947 3,080 135 6,162 -133 47.83% 49.98% -2.16%
Keweenaw 756 610 44 1,410 146 53.62% 43.26% 10.35%
Luce 1490 1,191 59 2,740 299 54.38% 43.47% 10.91%
Mackinac 3,268 3,027 38 6,333 241 51.60% 47.80% 3.81%
Marquette 12,906 19,635 634 33,175 -6729 38.90% 59.19% -20.28%
Menominee 4,855 5,981 236 11,072 -1126 43.85% 54.02% -10.17%
Montmorency 2,841 2,403 116 5,360 438 53.00% 44.83% 8.17%
Ogemaw 5,133 5,391 244 10,768 -258 47.67% 50.07% -2.40%
Ontonagon 1,823 1,966 96 3,885 -143 46.92% 50.60% -3.68%
Oscoda 2,320 1,887 121 4,328 433 53.60% 43.60% 10.00%
Otsego 6,752 5,634 230 12,616 1118 53.52% 44.66% 8.86%
Presque Isle 3,606 3,722 177 7,505 -116 48.05% 49.59% -1.55%
Schoolcraft 2,058 2,184 83 4,325 -126 47.58% 50.50% -2.91%
Bay County:
City of Auburn 590 591 15 1,196 -1 49.33% 49.41% -0.08%
Beaver Twp 796 744 26 1,566 52 50.83% 47.51% 3.32%
Fraser Twp 715 1,006 32 1,753 -291 40.79% 57.39% -16.60%
Garfield Twp 425 500 13 938 -75 45.31% 53.30% -8.00%
Gibson Twp 239 294 14 547 -55 43.69% 53.75% -10.05%
Kawkawlin Twp 1,187 1,391 52 2,630 -204 45.13% 52.89% -7.76%
City of Midland (1) 22 41 1 64 -19 34.38% 64.06% -29.69%
Monitor Twp (3) 650 520 20 1,190 130 54.62% 43.70% 10.92%
Monitor Twp (5) 619 644 20 1,283 -25 48.25% 50.19% -1.95%
Mount Forest Twp 342 383 22 747 -41 45.78% 51.27% -5.49%
City of Pinconning 200 378 11 589 -178 33.96% 64.18% -30.22%
Pinconning Twp 614 700 22 1,336 -86 45.96% 52.40% -6.44%
Portsmouth Twp 855 1,108 25 1,988 -253 43.01% 55.73% -12.73%
Williams Twp 1,404 1,331 54 2,789 73 50.34% 47.72% 2.62%
Total 160,874 167,152 6,344 334,370 -6278 48.11% 49.99% -1.88%
That was the 08, which was a big swing from the 04 and 00 elections, where Bush won this district quite easily. 08 was Obama’s year, and this is no different. The Western UP (Wisconsin area) returned to the democrat roots, and Marquette was even more democrat than usual. Even still, Obama could not quite break the 50% barrier due to 3rd party votes. While Obama won big in Bay County overall, he was held to 51.74% in this portion of the county. This part of Bay County does not have Bay City.
The other big dem year recently was 06. There are a large number of state workers in the 1st district. Mostly in corrections or the DNR (you can almost throw in MEA as well, but they are strong statewide). While the numbers in the end statewide were similar between Granholm 06 and Obama 08, a closer look shows that is not the case by district. Much as Bush 00 and Posthumus 02′s numbers were similar statewide, but different by district. Obama’s win was due more to the minority votes and a major swing in the west side. DeVos was whacked more in rural areas in general. Democrats always do better in the 1st district in gubernatorial years as well. This was no different. Granholm outpaced Obama in a big way.
2006 Election DeVos Granholm 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 2,583 2,793 88 5,464 -210 47.27% 51.12% -3.84%
Alger 1,422 2,285 59 3,766 -863 37.76% 60.67% -22.92%
Alpena 4,689 7,187 154 12,030 -2498 38.98% 59.74% -20.76%
Antrim 6,115 5,103 170 11,388 1012 53.70% 44.81% 8.89%
Arenac 2,805 3,737 102 6,644 -932 42.22% 56.25% -14.03%
Baraga 1,220 1,952 59 3,231 -732 37.76% 60.41% -22.66%
Bay 0 0 - 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 5,621 5,237 268 11,126 384 50.52% 47.07% 3.45%
Cheboygan 5,891 5,457 212 11,560 434 50.96% 47.21% 3.75%
Chippewa 5,564 7,463 184 13,211 -1899 42.12% 56.49% -14.37%
Crawford 2,765 2,932 106 5,803 -167 47.65% 50.53% -2.88%
Delta 5,973 8,792 180 14,945 -2819 39.97% 58.83% -18.86%
Dickinson 4,372 5,251 145 9,768 -879 44.76% 53.76% -9.00%
Emmet 7,442 6,401 228 14,071 1041 52.89% 45.49% 7.40%
Gladwin 4,962 5,588 211 10,761 -626 46.11% 51.93% -5.82%
Gogebic 2,216 3,821 124 6,161 -1605 35.97% 62.02% -26.05%
Houghton 5,275 6,497 200 11,972 -1222 44.06% 54.27% -10.21%
Iosco 5,006 6,043 172 11,221 -1037 44.61% 53.85% -9.24%
Iron 1,914 2,843 81 4,838 -929 39.56% 58.76% -19.20%
Keweenaw 507 632 22 1,161 -125 43.67% 54.44% -10.77%
Luce 789 1,495 28 2,312 -706 34.13% 64.66% -30.54%
Mackinac 2,540 2,879 64 5,483 -339 46.33% 52.51% -6.18%
Marquette 7,773 16,341 291 24,405 -8568 31.85% 66.96% -35.11%
Menominee 3,397 4,114 157 7,668 -717 44.30% 53.65% -9.35%
Montmorency 2,394 2,128 89 4,611 266 51.92% 46.15% 5.77%
Ogemaw 4,109 4,561 143 8,813 -452 46.62% 51.75% -5.13%
Ontonagon 1,318 1,782 48 3,148 -464 41.87% 56.61% -14.74%
Oscoda 1,850 1,638 65 3,553 212 52.07% 46.10% 5.97%
Otsego 5,644 4,465 168 10,277 1179 54.92% 43.45% 11.47%
Presque Isle 2,775 3,515 91 6,381 -740 43.49% 55.09% -11.60%
Schoolcraft 1,395 1,973 58 3,426 -578 40.72% 57.59% -16.87%
Bay County:
City of Auburn 443 552 10 1,005 -109 44.08% 54.93% -10.85%
Beaver Twp 579 697 18 1,294 -118 44.74% 53.86% -9.12%
Fraser Twp 488 958 25 1,471 -470 33.17% 65.13% -31.95%
Garfield Twp 272 480 25 777 -208 35.01% 61.78% -26.77%
Gibson Twp 183 251 9 443 -68 41.31% 56.66% -15.35%
Kawkawlin Twp 860 1,247 36 2,143 -387 40.13% 58.19% -18.06%
City of Midland (1) 22 23 1 46 -1 47.83% 50.00% -2.17%
Monitor Twp (3) 456 494 12 962 -38 47.40% 51.35% -3.95%
Monitor Twp (5) 431 539 9 979 -108 44.02% 55.06% -11.03%
Mount Forest Twp 273 336 4 613 -63 44.54% 54.81% -10.28%
City of Pinconning 182 306 7 495 -124 36.77% 61.82% -25.05%
Pinconning Twp 436 649 13 1,098 -213 39.71% 59.11% -19.40%
Portsmouth Twp 623 1,092 26 1,741 -469 35.78% 62.72% -26.94%
Williams Twp 1,026 1,245 33 2,304 -219 44.53% 54.04% -9.51%
Total 116,600 143,774 4,195 264,569 -27174 44.07% 54.34% -10.27%
Compare these to 2004 (Bush/Kerry), 2002 (Posthumus), and 2000 (Bush/Gore) at the top of the ticket.
2004 was the high water mark. Can you ask for a better opponent than John Kerry? I knew that was won (nationally) as soon as he won the nomination. I wasn’t laughing at Dean or Edwards though. Bush won all the counties except Alger, Arenac, Gogebic, Marquette, and the portion of Bay County in the district which he lost 50.48%-48.51%. Bush won the district by 7.69% margin.
2004 Election Bush Kerry 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 3,592 2,871 68 6,531 721 55.00% 43.96% 11.04%
Alger 2,318 2,395 52 4,765 -77 48.65% 50.26% -1.62%
Alpena 7,665 7,407 139 15,211 258 50.39% 48.70% 1.70%
Antrim 8,379 5,072 168 13,619 3307 61.52% 37.24% 24.28%
Arenac 4,071 4,076 69 8,216 -5 49.55% 49.61% -0.06%
Baraga 1,977 1,660 47 3,684 317 53.66% 45.06% 8.60%
Bay 0 0 - 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 8,214 5,729 196 14,139 2485 58.09% 40.52% 17.58%
Cheboygan 7,798 5,941 138 13,877 1857 56.19% 42.81% 13.38%
Chippewa 9,122 7,203 163 16,488 1919 55.33% 43.69% 11.64%
Crawford 4,017 3,126 92 7,235 891 55.52% 43.21% 12.32%
Delta 9,680 9,381 177 19,238 299 50.32% 48.76% 1.55%
Dickinson 7,734 5,650 166 13,550 2084 57.08% 41.70% 15.38%
Emmet 10,332 6,846 204 17,382 3486 59.44% 39.39% 20.06%
Gladwin 6,770 6,343 114 13,227 427 51.18% 47.95% 3.23%
Gogebic 3,935 4,421 86 8,442 -486 46.61% 52.37% -5.76%
Houghton 8,889 6,731 231 15,851 2158 56.08% 42.46% 13.61%
Iosco 7,301 6,557 148 14,006 744 52.13% 46.82% 5.31%
Iron 3,224 3,215 72 6,511 9 49.52% 49.38% 0.14%
Keweenaw 781 630 28 1,439 151 54.27% 43.78% 10.49%
Luce 1749 1,045 35 2,829 704 61.82% 36.94% 24.89%
Mackinac 3,706 2,819 84 6,609 887 56.08% 42.65% 13.42%
Marquette 14,690 17,412 386 32,488 -2722 45.22% 53.60% -8.38%
Menominee 5,942 5,326 151 11,419 616 52.04% 46.64% 5.39%
Montmorency 3,300 2,196 67 5,563 1104 59.32% 39.48% 19.85%
Ogemaw 5,454 5,215 127 10,796 239 50.52% 48.30% 2.21%
Ontonagon 2,262 1,863 67 4,192 399 53.96% 44.44% 9.52%
Oscoda 2,570 1,792 47 4,409 778 58.29% 40.64% 17.65%
Otsego 7,470 4,674 163 12,307 2796 60.70% 37.98% 22.72%
Presque Isle 3,982 3,432 102 7,516 550 52.98% 45.66% 7.32%
Schoolcraft 2,267 2,137 37 4,441 130 51.05% 48.12% 2.93%
Bay County:
City of Auburn 641 537 7 1,185 104 54.09% 45.32% 8.78%
Beaver Twp 792 691 16 1,499 101 52.84% 46.10% 6.74%
Fraser Twp 768 992 11 1,771 -224 43.37% 56.01% -12.65%
Garfield Twp 391 542 15 948 -151 41.24% 57.17% -15.93%
Gibson Twp 261 293 5 559 -32 46.69% 52.42% -5.72%
Kawkawlin Twp 1,271 1,377 25 2,673 -106 47.55% 51.52% -3.97%
City of Midland (1) 10 28 0 38 -18 26.32% 73.68% -47.37%
Monitor Twp (3) 474 333 7 814 141 58.23% 40.91% 17.32%
Monitor Twp (5) 434 377 13 824 57 52.67% 45.75% 6.92%
Mount Forest Twp 337 401 15 753 -64 44.75% 53.25% -8.50%
City of Pinconning 249 377 9 635 -128 39.21% 59.37% -20.16%
Pinconning Twp 628 686 12 1,326 -58 47.36% 51.73% -4.37%
Portsmouth Twp 912 1,089 17 2,018 -177 45.19% 53.96% -8.77%
Williams Twp 1,446 1,240 27 2,713 206 53.30% 45.71% 7.59%
Total 177,805 152,128 3,803 333,736 25677 53.28% 45.58% 7.69%
2002 was a year of what could have been if the idiot pundits (excluding myself since I actually thought Posthumus could win) didn’t concede the race before it began. Posthumus won the district, which is surprising for a state level candidate. It was close. He won with 50.07% of the vote, and it was strictly on lower Michigan votes. The UP’s historical democrat leanings are still strong in state level races.
2002 Election Posthumus Granholm 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 2,387 2,165 35 4,587 222 52.04% 47.20% 4.84%
Alger 1,623 1,855 49 3,527 -232 46.02% 52.59% -6.58%
Alpena 4,722 6,391 110 11,223 -1669 42.07% 56.95% -14.87%
Antrim 5,576 3,752 129 9,457 1824 58.96% 39.67% 19.29%
Arenac 2,611 2,821 74 5,506 -210 47.42% 51.24% -3.81%
Baraga 1,170 1,263 47 2,480 -93 47.18% 50.93% -3.75%
Bay 0 0 - 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 5,608 3,836 173 9,617 1772 58.31% 39.89% 18.43%
Cheboygan 5,268 4,107 112 9,487 1161 55.53% 43.29% 12.24%
Chippewa 5,357 5,428 113 10,898 -71 49.16% 49.81% -0.65%
Crawford 2,566 2,233 93 4,892 333 52.45% 45.65% 6.81%
Delta 6,590 6,862 172 13,624 -272 48.37% 50.37% -2.00%
Dickinson 4,358 3,882 113 8,353 476 52.17% 46.47% 5.70%
Emmet 7,111 4,330 212 11,653 2781 61.02% 37.16% 23.87%
Gladwin 4,569 4,350 112 9,031 219 50.59% 48.17% 2.42%
Gogebic 2,308 3,292 86 5,686 -984 40.59% 57.90% -17.31%
Houghton 5,119 5,026 205 10,350 93 49.46% 48.56% 0.90%
Iosco 4,817 5,031 151 9,999 -214 48.17% 50.32% -2.14%
Iron 2,017 2,429 93 4,539 -412 44.44% 53.51% -9.08%
Keweenaw 545 482 21 1,048 63 52.00% 45.99% 6.01%
Luce 889 1,016 39 1,944 -127 45.73% 52.26% -6.53%
Mackinac 2,425 2,206 35 4,666 219 51.97% 47.28% 4.69%
Marquette 8,906 12,779 465 22,150 -3873 40.21% 57.69% -17.49%
Menominee 3,576 3,335 124 7,035 241 50.83% 47.41% 3.43%
Montmorency 2,231 1,722 57 4,010 509 55.64% 42.94% 12.69%
Ogemaw 3,689 3,727 107 7,523 -38 49.04% 49.54% -0.51%
Ontonagon 1,334 1,301 54 2,689 33 49.61% 48.38% 1.23%
Oscoda 1,669 1,242 58 2,969 427 56.21% 41.83% 14.38%
Otsego 4,982 3,346 145 8,473 1636 58.80% 39.49% 19.31%
Presque Isle 2,862 2,717 64 5,643 145 50.72% 48.15% 2.57%
Schoolcraft 1,468 1,707 49 3,224 -239 45.53% 52.95% -7.41%
Bay County:
City of Auburn 441 372 5 818 69 53.91% 45.48% 8.44%
Beaver Twp 547 472 22 1,041 75 52.55% 45.34% 7.20%
Fraser Twp 522 657 15 1,194 -135 43.72% 55.03% -11.31%
Garfield Twp 302 311 9 622 -9 48.55% 50.00% -1.45%
Gibson Twp 187 169 5 361 18 51.80% 46.81% 4.99%
Kawkawlin Twp 914 963 22 1,899 -49 48.13% 50.71% -2.58%
City of Midland (1) 9 5 0 14 4 64.29% 35.71% 28.57%
Monitor Twp (3) 394 270 2 666 124 59.16% 40.54% 18.62%
Monitor Twp (5) 321 293 5 619 28 51.86% 47.33% 4.52%
Mount Forest Twp 242 215 13 470 27 51.49% 45.74% 5.74%
City of Pinconning 176 240 10 426 -64 41.31% 56.34% -15.02%
Pinconning Twp 428 437 11 876 -9 48.86% 49.89% -1.03%
Portsmouth Twp 617 774 21 1,412 -157 43.70% 54.82% -11.12%
Williams Twp 964 810 32 1,806 154 53.38% 44.85% 8.53%
Total 114,417 110,621 3,469 228,507 3796 50.07% 48.41% 1.66%
2000 was the start of a change in Northern Michigan from it’s democrat swing in the 1990′s. Bush won the UP, which I’m not sure his dad was able to even do. I think the UP may have gone to Dukakis, although I’m not certain.
2000 Election Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Alcona 3,152 2,696 149 5,997 456 52.56% 44.96% 7.60%
Alger 2,142 2,071 153 4,366 71 49.06% 47.43% 1.63%
Alpena 6,769 7,053 310 14,132 -284 47.90% 49.91% -2.01%
Antrim 6,780 4,329 438 11,547 2451 58.72% 37.49% 21.23%
Arenac 3,421 3,685 161 7,267 -264 47.08% 50.71% -3.63%
Baraga 1,836 1,400 157 3,393 436 54.11% 41.26% 12.85%
Bay 0 0 - 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Charlevoix 7,018 4,958 511 12,487 2060 56.20% 39.71% 16.50%
Cheboygan 6,815 5,484 318 12,617 1331 54.01% 43.47% 10.55%
Chippewa 7,526 6,370 458 14,354 1156 52.43% 44.38% 8.05%
Crawford 3,345 2,790 221 6,356 555 52.63% 43.90% 8.73%
Delta 8,871 7,970 472 17,313 901 51.24% 46.03% 5.20%
Dickinson 6,932 5,533 367 12,832 1399 54.02% 43.12% 10.90%
Emmet 8,602 5,451 658 14,711 3151 58.47% 37.05% 21.42%
Gladwin 5,743 5,573 313 11,629 170 49.39% 47.92% 1.46%
Gogebic 3,929 4,066 344 8,339 -137 47.12% 48.76% -1.64%
Houghton 7,895 5,688 633 14,216 2207 55.54% 40.01% 15.52%
Iosco 6,345 6,505 372 13,222 -160 47.99% 49.20% -1.21%
Iron 2,967 3,014 207 6,188 -47 47.95% 48.71% -0.76%
Keweenaw 740 540 63 1,343 200 55.10% 40.21% 14.89%
Luce 1480 956 100 2,536 524 58.36% 37.70% 20.66%
Mackinac 3,272 2,533 165 5,970 739 54.81% 42.43% 12.38%
Marquette 12,577 15,503 1099 29,179 -2926 43.10% 53.13% -10.03%
Menominee 5,529 4,597 308 10,434 932 52.99% 44.06% 8.93%
Montmorency 2,750 2,139 120 5,009 611 54.90% 42.70% 12.20%
Ogemaw 4,706 4,896 253 9,855 -190 47.75% 49.68% -1.93%
Ontonagon 2,472 1,514 165 4,151 958 59.55% 36.47% 23.08%
Oscoda 2,207 1,677 108 3,992 530 55.29% 42.01% 13.28%
Otsego 6,108 4,034 363 10,505 2074 58.14% 38.40% 19.74%
Presque Isle 3,660 3,242 178 7,080 418 51.69% 45.79% 5.90%
Schoolcraft 2,088 2,036 77 4,201 52 49.70% 48.46% 1.24%
Bay County:
City of Auburn 551 488 26 1,065 63 51.74% 45.82% 5.92%
Beaver Twp 664 618 35 1,317 46 50.42% 46.92% 3.49%
Fraser Twp 698 837 34 1,569 -139 44.49% 53.35% -8.86%
Garfield Twp 347 431 17 795 -84 43.65% 54.21% -10.57%
Gibson Twp 232 236 9 477 -4 48.64% 49.48% -0.84%
Kawkawlin Twp 1,104 1,194 52 2,350 -90 46.98% 50.81% -3.83%
City of Midland (1) 17 31 0 48 -14 35.42% 64.58% -29.17%
Monitor Twp (3) 413 332 4 749 81 55.14% 44.33% 10.81%
Monitor Twp (5) 373 362 17 752 11 49.60% 48.14% 1.46%
Mount Forest Twp 308 305 14 627 3 49.12% 48.64% 0.48%
City of Pinconning 239 323 10 572 -84 41.78% 56.47% -14.69%
Pinconning Twp 541 566 25 1,132 -25 47.79% 50.00% -2.21%
Portsmouth Twp 749 1,036 45 1,830 -287 40.93% 56.61% -15.68%
Williams Twp 1,181 1,034 46 2,261 147 52.23% 45.73% 6.50%
Total 155,094 136,096 9,575 300,765 18998 51.57% 45.25% 6.32%
The farm club here is vast because of the geography, with democrats having a big advantage with Northern Michigan districts.
St. Senate 38 – Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keewenaw, Luce, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, and Schoolcraft counties. Prusi is termed out.
St Senate 38th GOP Dem
06 – Mackin/Prusi 27974 66307 94,281 -38333 29.67% 70.33% -40.66%
02 – Schoenow/Prusi 33063 51348 84,411 -18285 39.17% 60.83% -21.66%
St. Senate 37 – Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is not in the 1st district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.
St Senate 37th GOP Dem
06 – Allen/Unger 63,479 43,476 106,955 20003 59.35% 40.65% 18.70%
02 – Allen/Estes 53,490 35,852 89,342 17638 59.87% 40.13% 19.74%
St. Senate 36 – Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland which is not in the 1st District, but one of the anchors of the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas’s opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He’s rumored to be running again for this district in 2010.
St Senate 35th GOP Dem
06 – Stamas/Reid 65,079 39,757 18 104,854 25322 62.07% 37.92% 24.15%
02 – Stamas/Neumann 46,511 44,487 90,998 2024 51.11% 48.89% 2.22%
St. Senate 31 – Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Only Arenac, and part of Bay County is in the district. Jim Barcia I believe is from Bay City, but he represented part of the 1st in his old 5th District.
St Senate 31st GOP Dem
06 – Nuncio/Barcia 23,569 78,923 1441 103,933 -55354 22.68% 75.94% -53.26%
02 – Green/Barcia 35,486 54,352 89,838 -18866 39.50% 60.50% -21.00%
St Rep 110 – Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Powell Township in Marquette County is also in this district. A similar district was close in 2000, but it has been solid democrat since. I’m not sure it has gone Republican since the pre-mining days. It’s winnable and went for Bush twice, but only in a real good year at a state rep level. This is still Joe Mack country.
St Rep 110th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Larson/Lahti 11,302 26,995 38,297 -15693 29.51% 70.49% -40.98%
06 – Schmidt/Lahti 10,357 19,361 820 30,538 -9004 33.92% 63.40% -29.48%
04 – Ashcraft/Brown 9,845 26,754 2607 39,206 -16909 25.11% 68.24% -43.13%
02 – Fay/Brown 7,812 18,544 26,356 -10732 29.64% 70.36% -40.72%
St Rep 109th – Alger, Luce, most of Marquette County, and Schoolcraft County – This is the most democrat district in the UP. John Kerry won this district which is anchored by Marquette, the largest city and county in the 1st district (as Bay City is in the 5th).
St Rep 109th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Takalo/Lindberg 12,444 26,766 2870 42,080 -14322 29.57% 63.61% -34.04%
06 – Westrom/Lindberg 10,508 21,428 31,936 -10920 32.90% 67.10% -34.19%
04 – Kaltenbach/Adamini 13,760 28,081 41,841 -14321 32.89% 67.11% -34.23%
02 – Hafeman/Adamini 8,954 20,396 29,350 -11442 30.51% 69.49% -38.98%
St. Rep 108th – Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties. This district was democrat until Casperson won it in 2002 in an upset over Laurie Stupak (Bart’s wife).  Bush won it twice (as he did the Green Bay area in Wisconsin), but it returned to its roots in 2008 at the state level. Obama also did well in the “Wisconsin” part of the UP, as he did in Green Bay, despite being a “FIB.” I’ll say the I in “FIB” stands for Illinois, and I’ll let you figure out the F and B portions…
St Rep 108th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Falcon/Nerat 18,350 23,800 42,150 -5450 43.53% 56.47% -12.93%
06 – Casperson/Nerat 17,817 14,298 32,115 3519 55.48% 44.52% 10.96%
04 – Casperson/Baldinetti 29,727 13,635 43,362 16092 68.56% 31.44% 37.11%
02 – Casperson/Stupak 15,009 13,982 28,991 1027 51.77% 48.23% 3.54%
St. Rep 107th – Koehler and Tuscarora Townships in Cheboygan County, Chippewa, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties. This district was GOP until Gary McDowell upset Walt North in 2004. North was a former State Senator who made a fatal vote as he stepped down. He was the deciding vote against legalizing the hunting of mourning doves. The NRA gave him an F rating (surprised me since he voted for CCW) over than one vote and endorsed McDowell (which I didn’t have a problem with at all – SAFR also endorsed McDowell, but gave North a mixed rating). McDowell is now termed out, and this should be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP, as long as they don’t run someone unacceptable to the NRA, Right to Life, or Farm Bureau.
St Rep 107th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Strobehn/McDowell 14,500 27,304 41,804 -12804 34.69% 65.31% -30.63%
06 – Duggan/McDowell 13,810 20,267 34,077 -6457 40.53% 59.47% -18.95%
04 – North/McDowell 19,353 22,293 41,646 -2940 46.47% 53.53% -7.06%
02 – Shackleton/McDowell 19,514 8,963 28,477 10551 68.53% 31.47% 37.05%
St Rep 106th – Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle counties.
This is democrat leaning with Alpena anchoring the district, although it is competitive when it is open. Andy Neumann is termed out in 2010. He ran for State Senate in 2002 and lost a close race, and came back when his old seat opened up in 2008. Matt Gillard had the seat for 3 terms in between the Neumann stints.
St Rep 106th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Pettalia/Neumann 19,620 23,089 1353 44,062 -3469 44.53% 52.40% -7.87%
06 – Viegelahn/Gillard 12,846 23,703 36,549 -10857 35.15% 64.85% -29.71%
04 – Fortier/Gillard 18,498 25,834 44,332 -7336 41.73% 58.27% -16.55%
02 – Wyman/Gillard 15,984 16,450 32,434 -466 49.28% 50.72% -1.44%
St. Rep 105th – Antrim, Charlevoix, Most of Cheboygan, and Otsego Counties.
The 105th is a solid GOP district, although primaries there can be vicious. (2002, and probably 2010) This seat opens up again in 2010, and several people are likely running for it.
St Rep 105th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Elsenheimer/Saltonstall 30,568 18,455 1354 50,377 12113 60.68% 36.63% 24.04%
06 – Elsenheimer/Bauer 26,291 14,635 40,926 11656 64.24% 35.76% 28.48%
04 – Elsenheimer/McKinney 30,765 18,644 49,409 12121 62.27% 37.73% 24.53%
02 – Bradstreet/Webster 21,609 12,203 33,812 9406 63.91% 36.09% 27.82%
St Rep 103rd – Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.
It’s a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there’s another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are not in the 1st district. Ogemaw and Iosco Counties are.
St Rep 103rd GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Ryan/Sheltrown 15,003 29,927 44,930 -14924 33.39% 66.61% -33.22%
06 – Moore/Sheltrown 11,468 25,155 36,623 -13687 31.31% 68.69% -37.37%
04 – Rendon/Sheltrown 19,648 25,535 45,183 -5887 43.49% 56.51% -13.03%
02 – Carlson/Sheltrown 13,457 18,571 32,028 -5114 42.02% 57.98% -15.97%
St Rep 97th – Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Mount Forest, and Pinconning Townships, and the city of Pinconning.
This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It’s a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is not in the 1st district, although the rest of the district is in the 1st. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he’s in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.
St Rep 97th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Moore/Wilton 25,996 16,877 42,873 9119 60.63% 39.37% 21.27%
06 – Moore/Schwab 18,893 16,321 35,214 2572 53.65% 46.35% 7.30%
04 – Moore/Elkins 22,320 20,883 43,203 1437 51.66% 48.34% 3.33%
02 – Coker/Elkins 14,137 14,480 28,617 -343 49.40% 50.60% -1.20%
96th District – Cities of Auburn, Bay City, Essexville, and Midland (precinct 1). Bangor, Beaver, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Monitor, Portsmouth, and Williams Township.
The 96th District is the 2nd most democrat district that has any portion in the 1st district. Most of this district is in the 5th district, including Bay City. Auburn, the Midland portion, two precincts of Monitor Township, Portsmouth, and Williams Townships are in the 1st. This district is the other district in the 1st that voted for John Kerry. Jeff Mayes, the incumbent, is from Bangor Township which is in the 5th District. This is not a liberal district, but it is a democrat district. Pro-life and pro-gun democrats are very common here.
St Rep 96th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 – Rau/Mayes 13,950 32,208 46,158 -18258 30.22% 69.78% -39.56%
06 – Schaefer/Mayes 9,858 27,199 37,057 -17341 26.60% 73.40% -46.80%
04 – Goss/Mayes 16,790 29,305 46,095 -12515 36.42% 63.58% -27.15%
02 – Begick/Rivet 12,032 21,126 33,158 -9094 36.29% 63.71% -27.43%
The 2010 election is Stupak’s to lose. Despite it being competitive on paper, Stupak is possibly the toughest candidate to knock out in Michigan. He beat a good candidate in Tom Casperson with 65%. Under the current boundaries, he won with 68%, 66%, and 69% all against Don Hooper, a frequent candidate. The old boundaries were more republican, but he survived 94 with 57%, and 98 (against another strong candidate in Michelle McManus) with 59%. Chuck Yob gave Stupak his roughest semi-recent numbers holding him to 58% in 2000 when the gun issue hurt Stupak. Stupak hasn’t had a bad vote on guns since 2001. That flank is well protected.
Despite Cook having this a R+3 seat, Stupak consistently wins by over a 2-1 margin. I’d give the pickup chances here at about 10%. 1% of that is Stupak not running again. 5% is angry democrats going after him on the life issue (R pickup if that happens.) The other 4% is if there is an unexpected blunder. The only way Stupak goes down is if he gets a “gone national” reputation like Tom Daschle did with the democrats. It could happen, but I’m not going to put money on it. That aside, I believe in competing in all districts, and this one needs a good fight. I don’t believe in conceding any race. Stupak has 18 years of votes. They can be looked at, scrutinized, and thrown back in his face.
One important aspect here is geography. Certain areas are an advantage to run from. Stupak being from the Green Bay section of the UP is an advantage as it is a swing part of the district. Yoopers in general will vote for yoopers over trolls. On the same note, trolls don’t have a problem voting for yoopers. Probably the best chance at picking up an open seat here is running a strong yooper against a democrat with a Bay City,  Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, or Petoskey address. Bay City is “Big City” and the other two areas have reputations for money. The other strategy would be to try and take the competitive northern lower portions by bigger than normal numbers. Bush actually won Alpena County, as well as Ogemaw and Iosco counties. Against someone like Stupak, this would be the better strategy as Stupak is a proven commodity in the U.P. With Stupak retiring, it’s best to run a yooper, hopefully against a troll.

I think Saltonstall’s chances are slim with her outspokenly pro-abortion views, and her Charlevoix address which will hurt her chances not just in the UP, but in the inland lower peninsula as well. I doubt she’ll be the nominee however, and expect the dems to run someone stronger.Gary McDowell and Rich Brown I think are their best two shots. For the GOP, I think Tom Casperson is the best shot, although Benishek may surprise people.

Candidates so far:
GOP:
Dan Benishek – Surgeon
Linda Goldthorpe – 08 Primary Candidate
Don Hooper – Usually runs for this seat.

Dem:
Connie Saltonstall – ran for State Rep in 2008, former County Commissioner

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