Jay Cost on his old Horse Race Blog did an outstanding job of breaking down the various polls in 2004. He was invaluable in figuring out which ones were solid and which ones were fluff.
Is anyone doing that on a daily or weekly basis in 2008?
The constant avalanche of polls is bewildering and bordering on meaningless.
Many of the results just don’t scan.
For instance the latest ABC/WaPo poll that has Obama ahead by 52-43 seems to be fairly worthless. This poll was 38% Dem and 28% Rep with 29% I. When the independents were pushed the Dem leaners lead Rep leaners 46% to 28%. The “net leaned party was 54 to 38 in favor of the Democrats. Given those numbers one wonders why Obama “only” had a 9 point lead?
At the same time the notoriously inaccurate NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up by just 2. While Battlefield is swimming against the tide and still showing McCain up by 2.
Now comes a poll by something called Marketing Resource Group of Lansing, which shows McCain up 3 in Michigan!
It makes the head ache.