People who are afraid of overpopulation seem to be very short-term thinkers. Come 2050 (40 years from now) it will be too late. Population will top out, and will begin to fall. By then, we will be scratching our heads and wondering how it all came to this.
If one looks at population articles by Jonathan Last, one can see where population is headed. Fertility rates have dropped by over 50% worldwide in less than 40 years. Just to replace existing population, the average woman has to have 2.1 children.
One can view the current fertility rate from the CIA world factbook — Country Comparison :: Total fertility rate. As can be seen, already 59 nations (44% of the world population) are seeing less than 2.1, which is the needed replacement for any population. Historically, no culture has ever reversed a 1.9 replacement rate. Because it would theoretically take 80-100 years to reverse a rate of 1.3, it is considered impossible.
In 1970, the average woman had 6 children during her lifetime. Today that global average is only 2.9. Even the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) predicts a further decline to 2.05 by 2050, which is when the total world population would start to decline.
Walter Radermacher (VP of Germany’s Federal Statistical Office) has already admitted his country’s inability to reverse its 1.41 replacement rate. This is documented in the above link.
The United Nations has revised its population forecast for 2050. The U.N., which has espoused the overpopulation theory for years, now seem to realize what will happen if nothing is done to stop the drop. But it will be far too late if we wait for the full realization in 2050. Practices such as abortion, sterilization, contraception, “abortifacient” devices, and China’s one child policy have all had a significant effect on the world’s actual fertility rate. Pregnancy is quickly becoming an advantage of the past.
Items such as AIDS, the elimination of DDT (millions get malaria because mosquitoes are not killed), and rescinding the right to bear children all directly affect procreation. And they’re all direct results of human decisions.
Once population decline begins, it will accelerate. Strong evidence shows the most successful and educated in society are reproducing at the slowest rate. The global fertility rate is only half that of 1972. The Empty Cradle (Phillip Longman) describes how population growth is necessary for economic growth. Herein lays the sobering part.
In actuality, seniors are living much longer now than they used to. Together with the recent fertility drops, the ratio of workers to retirees is changing. In 1950 there were 16 American workers for every retiree. There were only three in 2005. The rest of the world is seeing the same increase in the percentage of seniors in each country’s population.
If the world continues to reduce its rate of having children, fewer young will be there to take care of the elderly. The entitlement programs in the U.S. (i.e., Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) are quickly approaching bankruptcy. What cost reductions and expendability procedures will take place? Who will care for the elderly as they age?
As people grow older their ability to procreate decreases. Hence a larger older population means fewer baby-making opportunities. As a result, there’s a more quickly declining population.
With the approaching record federal deficit, and the increased healthcare expenses needed for seniors in the last 25% of their lifespans, at what point are they deemed expendable? From these and other factors, it seems likely the accelerated population decrease may lapse into a population freefall.
One of two scenarios would appear to result from the above picture. 1) The Muslim population, with a high 7.34 fertility rate, dominates and eventually takes over the world, or 2) the world as we know it ceases to exist in a few hundred years.
Certainly, we can open our eyes and look where existing population numbers are taking us. The overpopulation radicals are short-sighted enough not to worry about what happens in 2050. After all, that’s 40 years out.
Amazing how many think that God said [Genesis 1:28] “Be fruitful and multiply.” Actually He didn’t. He said “Be fertile, and multiply.” But so many just decide to just “spit in His eye.”
One may wonder how they’ll make out in the near future.