On Thursday Barack Obama will accept the nomination of the Democrat Party to be President of the United States. His speech is expected to rival his now infamous speech at the same Convention in 2004. It better. I hope he realizes how high the bar is set. Thursday will officially mark his victory in winning the first battle necessary to be elected President, the Battle of the Primaries.
Unfortunately for Obama, in winning the battle, he stands to lose the war.
Who is going to take him down? The soldiers of the army he just defeated will do him in.
Various polls are showing that anywhere from 20-28% of Hillary supporters will NOT vote for Barack Obama and instead will cast their vote for John McCain. Even if those numbers are half right, it is game over for Obama. In an election as close as this one will probably be, even a 5% defection will spell certain defeat.
The GOP actually sponsored a "happy hour" for Clinton supporters who are disillusioned by Obama. Over 100 attended and each of them pledged their support for McCain. That may be a ridiculously small sampling in the grand scheme of things, but I think it is very telling.
The biggest lead Obama has had in Gallup polls since he and McCain secured their nominations in June is 9%. To win this thing, Obama will need each and every one of Clinton's supporters. He only has 2 months to win them over. It's not enough time.
Winning over Conservatives may be a challenge for McCain, but it pales in comparison to the challenges that lie ahead for Obama.
My analysis? Game over. It will be interesting to see what Obama's "Convention Bump" will be.