A Rogue Take On Iowa
Santorum bought his new lease on life. He will probably see more money coming in. He will still get creamed in New Hampshire but if he does well in SC he will begin to demonstrate depth in support.
My personal take on him? Morally and evangelically we are mostly in tune. Although I think the deficit spending he has helped along is totally immorally. To reuse one of Newt’s phrases, it IS generational theft. Historically Santorum is way too quick to spend my money and more importantly my children’s money. This is why I haven’t considered him as a top tier in my personal primary. Between him and Obama there is however no comparison. If he manages to secure the nomination it will be a pleasure to vote for him.
Romney’s best hope is to keep as many conservatives in the race as possible. He is stuck at 25%~ and his path to the nomination requires the other 75% to remain divided between four candidates or more. He didn’t surprise in Iowa, it just proved that even the Republican Party population is 25% stupid. Unfortunately 25% stupid might win the nomination and thereby, as with McCain, lose the presidency to Obama. It will be painful, probably costing seats in the house and maybe killing the senate takeover. Almost as bad, or maybe worse, will be a Romney victory. The architect of ObamaCare is hardly going to do anything to preserve the idea that Republicans are the party of limited government and fiscal discipline. Boehner has faithfully done his part laying the groundwork, Romney will complete the process.
I think Newt is done at this point. I don’t mean he will drop, his ego is way too big for anything as selfless as that, but he had his surge, he is a great speaker and articulator, and then everybody remembered who he is as a person. Before Chrissy Matthews got his thrill on for Obama, Newt had weak knees for Bill. He has no spine. His poor showing in Iowa should mean it is time to sit out and endorse a conservative. My guess is after he gets shellacked in New Hampshire he will depart. No Money. I also predict he will endorse Romney. I further predict he will serve in a Romney administration. Newt will cut a deal and Romney, being faithful to his wife, doesn’t mind paying for political whores. His supporters on the other hand will probably split between Romney and the anti-Romneys still standing.
Before Perry got in Bachmann was my first choice. After Perry got in my view was whichever gained traction I would support. I prefer Bachmann but figured Perry would do much better overall. Well, right or wrong about Perry, the time has come for Bachmann to pull out and endorse Perry or Santorum. Last night made that pretty clear. If she can’t win as a native son in Iowa right next door to her current home she has no chance. But really, let’s face it; if she can’t place in her birth state of Iowa she probably couldn’t take Minnesota. Even Mondale beat Reagan at home.
For the good of the nation she needs to withdraw, I take her Christian faith seriously enough that I believe she can put the ego aside.
If this were on paper I wouldn’t waste the ink. In fact I have said too much already.
Fiscally he is the best candidate the GOP has in the race. His foreign policy is naïve. This is from somebody who considers himself a non-interventionist. Oh, he is correct, whether conservatives like it or not; our foreign policy over the last 100 years has made us more enemies than friends. And even our friends have been pretty faithless. Oh sure, as long as we dump billions into their local economies they are glad to take it. It has allowed the entire Euro-Socialist development to occur under the protective umbrella of NATO. It has made us the Great Satan of the Middle East. But where Paul is naïve is assuming that if we ignore them and pull out of the Middle East they will leave us alone. Of course the party line GOP explanation is nuts as well, they don’t hate because we are free. That too is absolutely stupid. THEY HATE US BECAUSE WE DON’T WORSHIP allah. And because, not worshipping allah, we also don’t serve in dhimmitude. But on Paul’s naiveté; we done kicked the hornet’s nest, back in the 50’s and 60’s and so on, we have to deal with the hornets; whether we decide to kick the hornet’s nest more in the future is a separate question. But he is right nation building is stupid, we have never done it successfully.
All that says this, when Paul loses the primary, his supporters are going to vote for Obama, vote for the nominee or stay home. According to most polls he pulls a fair number of independents and even anti-war democrats. Obviously, whether folks want to admit it or not, he is probably the most popular tea party candidate. Given that his supporters are evenly split between normally voting democrat, voting republican and staying home, Republicans need to consider whether they want the republican voting contingent staying home, the usually non-voting contingent doing what they usually do or the democrats staying home. Keep treating him the way Republicans have been treating him and you’ll be sure to keep the stay at homes at home. You may even drive his Republican support to stay at home. I am not the only one who sees this; Sarah Palin talked about it last night on Fox. The strategy of embracing RINOs instead of the libertarian wing, as we have done for 100 years, is killing the nation.
As far as Paul pulling out, I think we all know he will be in it through the last primary.
The candidate I am supporting for now. Not because he is perfect but because I think even now he is the best conservative to beat Obama. He needs to make a point of jumping into any possible opportunity to debate so if he does get the nod he is better prepared to cream Obama. Practice makes perfect. I do wish he were more conservative in his political history but he is hitting on all cylinders for now. I hope if Bachmann does bail she supports Perry. I think her followers would mostly make that transition. And clearly the ones who didn’t would almost certainly go to Santorum. While I know he has the money and have even said he should at least go through Super Tuesday, I was wrong. If he doesn’t start gaining serious traction by South Carolina he needs to move aside so we can avoid a Romney nomination. A Bachmann endorsement may help him gain that traction, so too would a Cain endorsement. Unless he swallows his ego, Cain has already made statements that would be hard to pull back from here.
TO SUM IT UP
Intrade currently has Romney at 80% for the nomination. If he gets it, he will lose. In fact, while picking Romney as the Republican Nominee, Intrade also gives Obama the edge in re-election. Makes sense, if you want a socialist authoritarian president, ya might as well stick to the one that brung ya. So what I think the intrade markets are saying, if they could speak, is “those Republicans are going to pick Romney and then lose, morons.”
Santorum is at 6%. His performance in his last election doesn’t speak well for his prospects nationally. But he might win.
Newt at 5%. He has got nowhere to go but down. The thrill is gone.
Paul is next with 2.5%. Because he will stick it out, if we get to a brokered convention, (currently the conservatives best shot) he will likely be a kingmaker. I don’t think Redstate or UnifiedPatriots are going to be able to scare him into supporting their candidate any more than the establishment will be able to browbeat him into supporting theirs. I do think his delegates will follow his lead.
Perry doesn’t really place at Intrade. Actually he does place behind Huntsman????? But in spite of this I still think he has a shot if he can get Bachmann to endorse and do well in South Carolina. Barring that I hope he uses his war chest to destroy Mitt to the best of his ability.
This election is going to go a lot like a game of pool. It can be fun knocking balls down, one
here, one there. If you have a good table you can run them off, bang, bang, bang. It not common but it happens. If you don’t have a good table, pool becomes something closer to a chess game. Not only do you have to make your next shot, you have to plan your next three. Bang, bang don’t get it anymore. You have to use a little finesse, a little English, just enough power to drop a ball so your next shot stays viable.
In this game we have to deal with seven balls while our opponents only have to deal with one.
Make six shots in a row and you still lose because the only thing that matters is who sinks the eight ball.