Big Changes Ahead For The GOP
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Blog Series
Republican Nation Committee Chairman, Reince Priebus stated that there were some big changes in store for the GOP. He was quoted in an interview with Mike Huckabee saying “What’s happened over the last several years at the RNC is that we have become, unfortunately, an organization that has shown up about once every four years, five months before an election,”.
According to Prebius the RNC is working on counteracting some if its failed policies and is committed to including minority groups that have been alienated by the Republican Party in the past, focusing efforts in key battle ground states and making sure the GOP is able to keep up with the Democrats in data collection, an area where Republicans were crushed during the last presidential election.
Prebius seems to be putting the Committee and the Party’s platform back on the right track. Personally I couldn’t agree more with the idea that the GOP must focus on catering to minority groups, especially to Hispanics whose support for Obama dropped a whopping 23% according to a Gallup survey taken at the end of 2013.
But more than just focusing on the inclusion of alienated groups and focusing efforts in key battleground states, is how well the Republican Party will go about collecting data. Implementing exceptional data collection techniques will be imperative if the GOP wants to claim victory in the 2014 midterm and 2016 presidential elections.
“We’ve got a $35 million data upgrade in helping us speak to and identify and segment different voter communities”, declared the Chairman.
As I alluded to previously, in the 2012 presidential election Republicans relied on traditional techniques, while Obama’s team based the entire campaign on analysis of voter behavior and ability to predict possible outcomes (also known as predictive analytics).
In a traditional campaign, losing Independents (as Obama did in 2012) will cause a candidate to lose the election.
However, Obama won due to an analytics team identifying each voter the campaign had to turn out individually, many who wouldn’t have voted otherwise.
His entire campaign plan and messaging was designed around that analysis, so it’s safe to say that without advanced targeting, Obama may have not been president.
Graph Provided by WPA Research Team
At WPA Opinion Research we are proud to say that we have been leading the GOP’s charge in using sophisticated and superlative analytics techniques for quite some time.
At WPA, our modeling team, led by COO Bryon Allen and VP of Research Operations Dan Narvaiz, has attained great amount of success utilizing predictive analytics for candidates like Senator Ted Cruz, ultimately winning a “Pollie” award from the AAPC for their work in 2013.
As we move further into 2014 and get closer to the midterm elections, the RNC will be committed to overcoming its past mistakes and I believe that the Committee and the Republican Party as a whole are going to see great results.