An Odd Assumption

I’m looking for help here this morning.


I understand that wise and wonderful election wizards like Karl Rove begin the process of predicting election wins by making the (goofy, IMHO) assumption that the incumbent will win all the same states he/she did in the last race. I know they have to start somewhere, but is this a reasonable assumption in this particular race?


The documentary produced by Citizens United, The Hope and The Change – which, I’m told, will be running on television soon and continually throughout the weeks before the election – tells the story of voters who are suffering from buyer’s remorse. They voted enthusiastically for Barack Obama in the 2008 election because they desperately wanted to buy into his message of Hope and Change. Many have since come to bitterly regret their decisions. The film is so compelling that Fox News’ Sean Hannity called it the most powerful documentary he’s ever seen. So, is it safe to think that the 200 or so voters interviewed for this film are alone?


Ok. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I’m of the opinion that there are a quadrillion nice, conservative voters out there who are keeping their own counsel in the matter of Barack Obama until Election Day arrives. These are the same folks who came out in support of Dan Cathy and his restaurant chain, Chik Fil A, when Cathy came under fire by gay-marriage proponents. When Cathy said he believed marriage can only legitimately happen between a man and a woman, the LGBT community called for a boycott of Chik Fil A. Former presidential candidate Governor Mike Huckabee, in support of Cathy’s right to freedom of religion and freedom of speech, called instead for a Chik Fil A Appreciation Day. The turn-out was the stuff of which election legends are made. I’m hoping to see those same constitution-loving, allegiance-pledging, anthem-singing Americans will overwhelm the polling places in November.


Meanwhile, I’ve fired off a few emails asking for information about the assumption mentioned above. If anybody can enlighten me on this subject, or point me in a direction, I would appreciate the input….

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