No, Mister Presdent. That’s not rain running down my leg….
Those of us who are political junkies and/or those of us who feel that the upcoming election may well be the most important one in American history have been watching the sundry polls which come out every fifteen minutes or so and which usually show the incumbent with a comfortable lead with more than a little angst. None of us wants to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan lose. More importantly, we don’t want to see Barack Obama win. But the polls! Alas the polls seem to show that Obama has an advantage no matter how well our men are comporting themselves. That’s where Mister Morris comes in.
You may remember that last week I was gnashing my teeth over the fact that pollsters begin the electoral prediction process with the assumption that the candidates will win the states won in the last election by the candidate of their party. This is fine unless you take into account that the 2008 election was an anomaly. Just one example is the fact that in 2008 the electorate was made up of 14% African American voters when an average black vote amounts to 11% of the turn-out. It isn’t reasonable to expect the 2012 vote to mirror the 2008 results in the first place.
The other part of the skewing process was a little mysterious to me. Then I saw two heavyweights in the polling world, Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, both Democrat with experience in previous democrat administrations, talking candidly about the process by which the polling data we see everyday is being “weighted.” They contend that the major polls are oversampling democrats – which information is obvious when you actually look at the methodology section of each poll – by a big margin, causing the polls to be something less than accurate.
When asked if the polls were an accurate reflection of the Presidential race, Doug Schoen replied, “The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get…President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.”
So, armed with this new information – that we’re being casually misled into believing that “everybody” will be voting for Barack Obama so we might as well join in – I went in search of an un-skewed poll. Eureka! I found such at www.unskewedpolls.com. The polling data there has had the democrat oversample un-plugged leaving Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan with a comfortable lead in each and every poll across the board.
In one sense, I have a great sense of relief. On the flip side, I’m more than a bit irritated that the main-stream media as well as – I know, this is a shocker – the Obama administration have been piddling down our legs and calling it rain.
We need to use every opportunity to point to the fact that the polling data is generally inaccurate and do whatever we can to make sure folks don’t fall into the mob mentality and cast their ballot for Obama just because everybody else seems to be doing so!