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My Take on the 2010 AL Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the AL Races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Bob Riley is term-limited, thus setting up a free-for-all on both sides. On the GOP side, State Representative Robert Bentley, former State Community College System Chancellor Bradley Byrne, State Treasurer Kay Ivey, Real Estate Developer Tim James, former State Economic Development Director Bill Johnson, former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, and Financial Analyst James Potts are in the running. On the Democratic side, Congressman Artur Davis, State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries Ron Sparks, and Inventor Sam Franklin Thomas are in the running. I expect Kay Ivey to win the GOP Primary easily. The Democratic race is still up in the air. If the Democrats nominate Davis, Ivey has a slight edge. If Sparks is the nominee, it will be close til’ the end. GOP HOLD if Davis is the nominee, TOSSUP if Sparks is the nominee.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom Jr. is running for re-election. On the GOP side, State Senator Hank Erwin and Teacher Gene Ponder are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Folsom Jr. I expect Erwin to win the GOP Primary and get crushed 57-43 by Folsom Jr. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Scandal-mired Incumbent GOP Attorney General Troy King is running for re-election. On the GOP side, King and Attorney Luther Strange are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorney Michel Nicrosi and former State Democratic Party Chairman Giles Perkins are in the running. I expect King to defeat Strange 54-46 and Perkins to defeat Nicrosi 63-37. In the end, King narrowly wins 51-49. GOP HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent GOP Secretary of State Beth Chapman is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Chapman. There are no announced Democratic Candidates, but two potential candidates are Secretary of State’s Office Administrator Ed Packard and former Secretary of State Nancy Worely. Chapman will defeat whoever the Democrats nominate, if anybody. GOP HOLD.

State Auditor: Incumbent GOP State Auditor Samantha Shaw is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Shaw, and there are no announced or potential Democratic candidates. GOP HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent GOP State Treasurer Kay Ivey is running for Governor. On the GOP side, retired Businessman Terry Dunn, Accountant Ron Stokes, former State Treasurer and former State PSC Commissioner George Wallace Jr. are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State Conservation Commissioner Charles Grimsley and Attorney Jeremy Shearer are in the running. Wallace Jr. will handily defeat the GOP opposition and Grimsley will win 73-27 over Shearer. Wallace Jr. will defeat Grimsley 58-42. GOP HOLD.

State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries: Incumbent Democratic State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries Ron Sparks is running for Governor. The Democrats have unified behind Deputy State Agriculture Glen Zorn. On the GOP side, Walker County Economic Development Chair Dorman Grace, former State Conservation Commissioner John McMillan, and Businessman Dale Peterson are in the running. I expect McMillan to win 59-32-9 over Grace and Peterson. Zorn will narrowly defeat McMillan 53-47. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent GOP US Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Shelby, and the Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

US Congress: The GOP easily retains AL-01, AL-04, and AL-06. Here are the others:

AL-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Bobby Bright is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby and Businessman Rick Barber are in the running. The Democrats have, reluctantly, unified behind Bright. The Independents have unified behind IT Manager Rob John. I expect Roby to be teabagged to death by Barber 52-48. Barber will defeat Bright 54-46. GOP PICKUP.

AL-03: Incumbent GOP Congressman Mike Rogers is running for re-election. The Gop has unified behind Rogers the Democrats have unified behind Attorney Josh Segall, and the Independents have unified behind Real Estate Broker Mark Layfield. Rogers will defeat Segall 55-43, with the rest going to Layfield. GOP HOLD.

AL-05: Incumbent GOP Congressman Parker Griffifth is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Griffifth, Madison County Commissioner Morris Brooks, and Businessman Les Phillip are in the running. There are no announced candidates on the Democratic side, but potential candidates include State Representative Marcel Black, State Senator Tom Butler, Huntsville School Board President Doug Martinson, and former Congressional Aide Steve Raby. I expect Brooks to defeat Griffifth and Phillip 51-45-4. I expect Butler to get in the race for the Democrats. Brooks will defeat Butler 56-44. GOP HOLD.

AL-07: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Artur Davis is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, Attorney Martha Bozeman, State Representative Earl Hilliard Jr., Frank Lankster, former Radio Journalist Patricia Evans Mokolo, Attorney Terri Sewell, Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot, and Mortgage Broker Eddison Waters are in the running. The GOP is unified behind Tea Party Activist Michele Waller. I expect a Runoff between Hilliard Jr. and Smoot, with Hilliard Jr. winning 53-47. Hilliard Jr. handily defeats Waller. DEM HOLD

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