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My Take on the 2010 SC Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the SC races will go:

Governor: Scandal mired incumbent GOP Governor Mark Sanford is term-limited, setting up a free-for-all on both sides. On the GOP side, Congressman Gresham Barrett, Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer, State Senator Larry Grooms, State Representative Nikki Haley, and Attorney General Henry McMaster are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorneys Dwight Drake and Mullins McLeod, Minister Amos Elliot, State Senators Robert Ford and Vincent Sheheen, and State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex are in the running. Independents have unified behind Construction Company CEO Morgan Bruce Reeves. I expect McMaster to win the GOP Primary, and Rex to win the Democratic Primary. McMaster will win 55-45. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent GOP Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer is running for Governor. On the GOP side, Florence County Councilman Ken Ard, Attorney Bill Connor, and State Representative Tim Scott are in the running. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. I expect Scott to win the Primary and win the General with no opposition. GOP HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent GOP Secretary of State Mark Hammond is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Hammond. The Democrats have unified behind retired Civil Servant Marjorie Johnson. Hammond will crush Johnson 63-37. GOP HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent GOP State Treasurer Converse Chellis is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Chellis. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent GOP Attorney General Henry McMaster is running for Governor. On the GOP side, former Chief Deputy Attorney General Robert Bolchoz, Attorney Leighton Lord, and former Assistant Attorney General Alan Wilson are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind First Circuit Solicitor David Pascoe. The frontrunners on the GOP side are Bolchoz and Wilson. Either will defeat Pascoe big time. GOP HOLD.

Comptroller General: Incumbent GOP Comptroller General Richard Eckstrom is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Eckstrom. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

State Superintendent of Education: Incumbent Democratic State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex is running for Governor. On the GOP side, Construction Contractor Elizabeth Moffly, College Professor Brent Nelsen, Teacher Kelly Payne, and Newberry College President Mick Zais are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind former US Deputy Education Secretary Frank Holleman. The Libertarians have unified behind Teacher Tim Moultrie. I expect Zais to win the GOP Primary. Holleman will win 53-46 over Zais. DEM HOLD.

Adjutant General: Incumbent GOP Adjutant General Stan Spears is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Spears, Author Dean Allen and Businessman Brian Frank are in the running. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. Spears will win handily over Allen and Frank and will win with no opposition. GOP HOLD.

State Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent GOP State Agriculture Commissioner Hugh Weathers is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Weathers. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent GOP US Senator Jim DeMint is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind DeMint. On the Democratic side, Attorney Chad McGowan and retired Auto Company Executive Mike Ruckes are in the running. Ruckes will defeat McGowan 57-43 and lose to DeMint 67-33. GOP HOLD.

US Congress: The Democrats easily retain SC-06.

SC-01: Incumbent GOP Congressman Henry Brown is retiring. On the GOP side, Isle of Palms City Councilman Ryan Buckhannon, former State Ports Authority Board Member Carroll Campbell III, former Mount Pleasant Town Councilman Mark Fava, and former Congressional Aide Katherine Jenerette are in the running. On the Democratic side, former Housing Authority Commissioner Robert Burton, former County Supervisor Robert Dobbs, and retired Businessman Dick Withington are in the running. I expect Campbell III and Burton to emerge from their respective Primaries. Campbell III will win 55-45 over Burton. GOP HOLD.

SC-02: Incumbent GOP Congressman AG Wilson is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Wilson. The Democrats have unified behind Iraq War Veteran Rob Miller. Wilson defeats Miller 56-44. GOP HOLD.

SC-03: Incumbent GOP Congressman J. Gresham Barrett is running for Governor. On the GOP side, Evangelical Pastor Richard Cash, Attorneys Neal Collins and James Galyean, State Representatives Jeff Duncan and Rex Rice, and Physician Mike Vasovski are in the running. On the Democratic side, Paramedic Brian Doyle and FedEx Pilot Jane Dyer are in the running. The GOP frontrunners are Duncan and Rice. Dyer will defeat Doyle, and the GOP nominee will crush Dyer. GOP HOLD.

SC-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Bob Inglis is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy, College Professor Christina Jeffrey, IT Consultant Jim Lee, Businessman Rick Mahler, and State Senator Dave Thomas are in the running. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. The Libertarians have unified behind Steven Edwards. On the Independent side, Computer Database Administrator Tim Carnes and Stock Market Investor Ted Christian are in the running. I expect Thomas to emerge and win the GE. GOP HOLD.

SC-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman John Spratt is running for re-election. On the GOP side, State Senator Mick Mulvaney and College Professor Albert Spencer are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Spratt. I expect Mulvaney to win the Primary. In this political climate, I see Mulvaney defeating Spratt 53-47. GOP PICKUP.

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