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My Take on the 2010 VT Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the VT races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Jim Douglas is retiring. The GOP has unified behind Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie. On the Democratic side, State Senators Susan Bartlett, Mat Dunne, Doug Racine, and Peter Schumlin and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz are in the running. The Second VT Republic Party has unified behind Dennis Steele. The Independents have unified behind Cris Ericson. I expect Markewitz to handily defeat all the opposition. In this climate, I expect Dubie to narrowly prevail 52-48. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent GOP Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is running for Governor. On the GOP side, State Senator Phil Scott and Businessman Mark Snelling are in the running. On the Democratic side, there are no announced candidates, but potential candidates include State Representatives Tom Costello, Steve Howard, and David Zuckerman, State Senator Virginia Lyons, and former Non Profit Group Executive Director Tim Palmer. Scott will win 58-42, and lose to whoever the Democrats nominate. DEM PICKUP.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Spaulding. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Deb Markowitz is running for Governor. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney and Middlesex Zoning Board Chair Charlie Merriman. The GOP has unified behind Attorney and Williston Selectman Chris Roy. Merriman will defeat Roy 61-39. DEM HOLD

State Auditor of Accounts: Incumbent GOP State Auditor of Accounts Tom Salmon Jr. is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Salmon Jr. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Bill Sorrell is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Sorrell. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Pat Leahy is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Leahy and Physician Daniel Freilich are in the running. The GOP has unified behind Lumber Store Owner Len Britton. On the Independent side, Cris Ericson and John LaPierre Jr. are in the running. I expect Leahy to trounce Freilich in the Primary and Britton, Ericson, and LaPierre Jr. in the General. DEM HOLD.

VT-AL: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Peter Welch is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Welch and Teacher Dan Weintraub are in the running. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

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