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My Take on the 2010 CT Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the CT races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Jodi Rell is retiring. On the GOP side, former Congressman Larry DeNardis, Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, and former US Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State House Speaker Jim Amann, former State Representative Juan Figueroa, Simsbury First Selectman Mary Glassman, Businessman Ned Lamont, State Senator Gary LeBeau, Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, and Rigefield First Selectman Rudy Marconi are in the running. I expect Fedele and Lamont to emerge from their Primaries. I expect Fedele to pick Foley as his running mate and Lamont to pick Amann as his running mate. I expect Lamont/Amann to prevail over Fedele/Foley 52-48. DEM GAIN.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz is running for Attorney General. On the Democratic side, New Haven Alderman Gerry Garcia, Jonathan Harris, State House Majority Leader Denise Merrill, and State Representatives Kevin Roldan and James Spallone are in the running. On the GOP side, former Cheshire Town Registrar of Voters Richard Abbate and Attorney Corey Brinson are in the running. I expect Merrill to emerge from her Primary. I expect Abbate to defeat Brinson 64-36. Merrill will defeat Abbate 60-40. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is running for the US Senate. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and former State Senate Majority Leader George Jepsen are in the running. There are no announced candidates on the GOP side, but potential candidates are State Representatives Bill Hamzy, Themis Klarides, and Arthur O’Neill, Attorney John Pavia, and State Senator Andrew Roraback. I expect Bysiewicz to pummel Jepsen 67-33 and defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Denise Nappier is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Nappier. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Comptroller: Incumbent Democratic State Comptroller Nancy Wyman is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Wyman. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd is retiring. On the Democratic side, Software Executive Merrick Alpert, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, and former Greenwich First Selectman Roger Pearson are in the running. On the GOP side, former Worl Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Congressman Rob Simmons, and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Shiff are in the running. I expect Blumenthal to crush his Primary opposition easily, 80-14-6 over Alpert and Pearson. I also expect Simmons to bodyslam McMahon 49-38. Blumenthal will crush Simmons 69-31. DEM HOLD.

US Congress: Democrats will retain Districts 1 and 3.

CT-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Joe Courtney is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Courtney. On the GOP side, Hebron Board of Finance Member Matthew Daly and Homeland Security Consultant Daria Novak are in the running. The Green Party has unified behind Montville School Board Chair G. Scott Deshefy. The Libertarians have unified behind Writer Dan Reale. I expect Daly to emerge from his Primary 71-29 and lose to Courtney 56-41. DEM HOLD.

CT-04: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Himes is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Himes. On the GOP side, State Senator Dan Debicella, Non-Profit Group Executive Director Will Gregory, Businessmen Rob Merkle and Rick Torres, and former State Senator Rob Russo are in the running., I expect Debicella to prevail 50-42-5-2-1 over Gregory, Russo, Merkle, and Torres, and upend Himes 51-49. GOP GAIN.

CT-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Murphy. On the GOP side, former Non-Profit Group Executive Director Justin Bernier, State Senator Sam Calguri, Health Care Executive Dan Carter, Businessmen Bill Evans and Mark Greenberg, and Attorney Kie Westby. I expect Calguri to prevail over Bernier 55-39 and upend Murphy 53-47. GOP GAIN.

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