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My Take on the 2010 KY Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the KY races will go:

US Senate: Incumbent GOP Senator Jim Bunning is retiring. On the GOP side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, Business Executive Bill Johnson, World War II Veteran Gurley Martin, Physician Rand Paul, Jon Scribner, and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson are in the running. On the Democratic side, Physician James Buckmaster, Attorney General Jack Conway, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, former US Customs Agent Darlene Price, and Farmer Maurice Sweeney are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Convenience Store Operator John Long. I expect Paul and Conway to emerge from their Primaries. I expect Paul to defeat Conway 52-48. GOP HOLD.

KY-01: Incumbent GOP Congressman Ed Whitfield is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Whitfield. The Democrats have unified Auctioneer Charles Hatchett. I expect Whitfield to bury Hatchett 72-28. GOP HOLD.

KY-02: Incumbent GOP Congressman S. Brett Guthrie is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Guthrie. The Democrats have unified behind Home Builder Ed Marksberry. I expect Guthrie to crush Marksberry 70-30. GOP HOLD.

KY-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman John Yarmuth is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Yarmuth. On the GOP side, Electric Power Plant Worker W. Jerry Durbin, Commercial Real Estate Broker Larry Hausman, Commercial Pilot Todd Lally, Restaurant Franchise Owner Jeff Reetz, and Financial Consultant Brooks Wicker are in the running. I expect Reetz to emerge from the Primary. I expect Yarmuth to prevail 54-46. DEM HOLD.

KY-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Geoff Davis is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Davis. The Democrats have unified behind Disabled Iraq/Afghan War Veteran & Non-Profit Group Executive John Waltz. I expect Davis to prevail 69-31. GOP HOLD.

KY-05: Incumbent GOP Congressman Hal Rogers is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Rogers. On the Democratic side, Helicopter Pilot Jim Holbert, Teacher David Holbert, and Attorney Ken Stepp are in the running. I have no idea who will be the Dem nominee, but does it matter? Rogers will crush them like their Third Parties. GOP HOLD.

KY-06: Incumbent Democratic Congressman AB Chandler is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Chandler. On the GOP side, Businessman Perry Barnes, Attorney Andy Barr, John Kemper III, Funeral Director Matt Lockett, George Pendergrass, and retired Businessman Mike Templeman are in the running. I expect Barr to get the nomination, but lose to Chandler 56-44. DEM HOLD.

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