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My Take on the 2010 NM Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the NM races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Richardson is term-limited. The Democrats have unified behind Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. On the GOP side, State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones, Attorney Pete Domeneci Jr., Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, Public Relations Firm Owner Doug Turner, and former State GOP Chairman Allen Weh are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup. Denish will defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, State Representative Joe Campos, former State Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón, State Senators Linda Lopez and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, former Albuquerque Chief Administrative Officer Lawrence Rael, and Sante Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano are in the running. On the GOP side, Cardiologist JR Damron and former State Representative Brian Moore are in the running. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. I expect Moore to defeat Damron 69-31, and lose to whoever the Democrats nominate. DEM HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Marty Herrera is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Herrera. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Auditor: Incumbent Democratic State Auditor Hector Balderas is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Balderas. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer James Lewis is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lewis. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Gary King is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind King. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Commissioner of Public Lands: Incumbent GOP State Commissioner of Public Lands Pat Lyons is retiring. On the GOP side, retired Law Enforcement Officer Errol Chavez and State Public Regulation Commission Employee Bob Cornelius are in the running. On the Democratic side, Santa Fe County Commissioner Mike Anaya and Harry Montoya, State Public Regulation Commission Chairwoman Sandy Jones, and former State Land Commissioner Ray Powell are in the running. I expect Cornelius to prevail 77-23 over Chavez. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. I expect Whoever the Democrats nominate to defeat Cornelius. DEM GAIN.

NM-01: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Heinrich. The GOP has unified behind former State GOP Vice Chair Jon Barela. The Constitution Party has unified behind Religious Right Activist Jerry Scott. The Libertarians have unified behind Attorney Alan Woodruff. I expect Heinrich to defeat Barela 57-42. DEM HOLD.

NM-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Harry Teague is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Teague. The GOP has unified behind former Congressman Steve Pearce. I expect Pearce to prevail 52-48. GOP GAIN.

NM-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lujan. On the GOP side, Iraq War Veteran Adam Kokesh and Businessman Tom Mullins are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup. Lujan will defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

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