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My Take on the 2010 VA Races

Here’s a Rundown of how I think the 2010 VA races will go:

Congress: The GOP holds districts 1, 4, 6, and 7. The Democrats hold district 3.

VA-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Glenn Nye is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Nye. On the GOP side, former Virginia Beach GOP Chair Kenny Golden, Engineering Contractor Ben Loyola, Defense Contractor Ed Maulbeck, Army Reserve Brigadier General Bet Mizusawa, Auto Dealer Scott Rigell, and Businessman Scott Taylor are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Computer Systems Engineer Doug Hutchinson. The GOP Primary is a tossup between Golden and Mizusawa. Whoever wins will defeat Nye. 52-48 Golden. 54-46 Mizusawa. GOP GAIN.

VA-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Perriello. On the GOP side, Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, Businessman Ron Ferrin, State Senator Robert Hurt, Real Estate Developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, Airline Pilot Michael McPadden, and Teacher Feda Morton. On the Independent side, Tea Party Activist Jeff Clark and Factory Worker Bradley Rees are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup between Boyd and Hurt. Whoever wins will upend Perriello. Boyd 51-49. Hurt 53-47. GOP GAIN.

VA-08: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Moran is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Moran and Attorney’s Matt Famiglietti and Ronald Mitchell are in the running. On the GOP side, former Federal Communications Commission General Counsel Matthew Berry, Banker Mark Ellmore, Retired Army Officer Patrick Murray, and Communications Consultant Laurence Socci are in the running. The Indy Greens have unified behind Retired Navy Officer Ron Fisher. The Independents have unified behind Carvel St. John. I expect Berry to win convincingly in the Primary and lose to Moran 63-37. DEM HOLD.

VA-09: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Rick Boucher is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Boucher. On the GOP side, retired Businessman Jim Bebout, State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffifth, Surveyor Adam Light, retired Army Officer David Moore, and Electrical Engineer Jessee Ring. The Independents have unified behind Farmer Jeremiah Heaton. I expect Griffifth to demolish the field of GOP’ers and defeat Boucher 53-47. GOP GAIN.

VA-10: Incumbent GOP Congressman Frank Wolf is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Wolf and Defense Contractor Jim Trautz are in the running. On the Democratic side, Workforce Development Consultant Richard Anthony, Consultant Jeff Barnett, Architect Dennis Findley, and Brain Injury Survivor and Felon Julien Modica are in the running. I see Wolf and Anthony emerging from their Primaries and I expect Wolf to beat Anthony 59-41. GOP HOLD.

VA-11: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Connolly. On the GOP side, Home Inspection Company CEO Keith Fimian, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, and Paul Miller are in the running. I expect Herrity to defeat Fimian and Miller 54-44-2. Herrity will defeat Connolly 52-48. GOP GAIN.

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