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How I See The 2010 Senate Races So Far

Here’s my take on the 2010 Senate races 8 months out.

Retiring Incumbents:

CT-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd is retiring. On the Democratic side, Software Executive Merrick Alpert, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, and former Greenwich First Selectman Roger Pearson are in the running. On the Republican side, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Congressman Rob Simmons, and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Shiff are in the running. I expect Blumenthal and Simmons to emerge from their respective Primaries. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

DE-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Ted Kaufman will not stand for election. The Democrats have unified behind behind New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. On the Republican side, Congressman Mike Castle, Political Consultant Christine O’Donnell, and Child Advocate Carlet Deetta Ward are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind School Mentoring Volunteer Wendy Jones. I see Castle handily emerging from his Primary. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

FL-SEN: Appointed Republican US Senator George LeMieux will not stand for election. On the Republican side, Mechanical Engineer Bob Coggans, Governor Charlie Crist, Attorney Linda Vasquez Littlefield, Thomas Mangum, Evangelist Gwyn McClellan, Attorney Belinda Noah, former Speaker of the Florida State House Marco Rubio, former New Hampshire US Senator Bob Smith, Businessman Shawn Teeters, and Physician Marion Thorpe Jr. are in the running. On the Democratic side, Pastor Tyrone Brown, North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns, former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferré, Raphael Herman, ’02 Okaloosa County School Board Candidate Chuck Lynch, Congressman Kendrick Meek, and Retired Postal Worker Lawrence Penpeck are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Prison Ministry Group Founder Bernie DeCastro. The Libertarians have unified behind Business Account Manager Alex Snitker. The Veterans Party has unified behind Businessman Dennis Bradley. On the Independent side, Lewis Armstrong, Farmer Bobbie Bean, College Professor Piotr Blass, Pest Management Company Co-Owner Todd Oifer, and Accountant Dave Roberts are in the running. I expect Rubio and Meek to emerge from their Primaries, Rubio 57-38 over Crist and Meek 75-14-8 over Burns and Ferre. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

IL-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Roland Burris will not stand for election. The Democrats nominated State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The Republicans nominated Congressman Mark Kirk. The Libertarians nominated Engineer Mike Labno. On the Independent side, Health Insurance Agency Owner John Blyth, Greenville City Councilor Will Boyd Jr., Attorney Michael Dorsey, Businessman Stan Jalga, Apostolic Minister Eric Wallace, and Bob Zadek are in the running. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

IN-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. The Democrats have unified behind Congressman Brad Ellsworth. On the Republican side, Bank Branch Manager Don Bates Jr., Plumbing Contractor Richard Behney, former US Senator Dan Coats, former US Representative John Hostettler, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman are in the running. The Independents have unified behind 08′ Gubernatorial candidate Timothy Lee Frye. I see Hostettler emerging over Stutzman and Coats 45-29-26. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

KS-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Sam Brownback is running for Governor. On the Republican side, Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are in the running. On the Democratic side, Retired Communications Executive Charles Schollenberger and Attorney Stanley Wiles are in the running. I see Moran narrowly beating out Tiahrt and Schollenberger defeating Wiles in their respective Primaries. At this point, I rate this race SAFE REPUBLICAN.

KY-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Bunning is retiring. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, Business Executive Bill Johnson, World War II Veteran Gurley Martin, Physician Rand Paul, Jon Scribner, and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson are in the running. On the Democratic side, Physician James Buckmaster, Attorney General Jack Conway, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, former US Customs Agent Darlene Price, and Farmer Maurice Sweeney are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Convenience Store Operator John Long. I expect Paul and Conway to emerge from their Primaries. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

MO-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Christopher Bond is retiring. On the Republican side, Congressman Roy Blunt, Electrical Contractor Davis Conway, Iraq War Veteran Hector Maldonado, Car Salesman Mark Memoly, Database Technician Kristi Nichols, Architect Bob Praprotnik, State Senator Chuck Purgason, Police Officer James Schmidt, Marketer Deborah Solomon, and Repairman Mike Vontz are in the running. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and retired Federal Employee Francis Vangeli are in the running. On the Constitution side, Businessman Jerry Beck and retired Furniture Maker Joe Martellaro are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Jonathan Dine. The Progressives have unified behind State Party Co-Chair Midge Potts. I see Blunt prevailing over Purgason 53-32 and Carnahan destroying Vangeli 96-4. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

ND-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Byron Dorgan is retiring. On the Republican side, Governor John Hoeven and Retired Navy Officer and Businessman Duane Sand are in the running. The Democrats side has no announced candidates to date, but State Senator and 08′ Gubernatorial nominee Tim Mathern is a potential candidate. I expect Hoeven to pound Sand in the Primary. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

NH-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Judd Gregg is retiring. On the Republican side, former State Representative Tom Alciere, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, Businessmen Jim Bender and Bill Binnie, and former State Board of Education Chair Ovide LaMontage are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind US Representative Paul Hodes. The Libertarians have unified behind Realtor Ken Blevens. I expect LaMontage to teabag Ayotte to death in the Primary. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

OH-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator George Voinovich is retiring. The Republicans have unified behind former Congressman and former Bush OMB Director Rob Portman. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Electrical Engineer Eric Deaton. The Socialists have unified behind University Instructor Dan LeBotz. On the Independent side, Medical Researcher Eric LaMont Gregory, Businessmen Stephen Lahanas and Dave Myers, Engineer Bill Pierce, and IT Consultant Adam Shaffer are in the running. I see Fisher emerging 55-45 over Brunner. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

Senators standing for re-election:

AL-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Shelby. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney William Barnes. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

AK-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Murkowski. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney Frank Vondersaar. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

AZ-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator John McCain is running for re-election. On the Republican side, McCain, Fire Protection Systems Contractor Jim Deakin, former Congressman JD Hayworth, and Verde Valley Justice of the Peace William Lundy are in the running. On the Democratic side, former Bell Gardens California Mayor Rudy Garcia, Tuscon City Councilor Rodney Glassman, and Teacher Stuart Starky are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Risk Management Consultant Rick Biondi.  On the Independent side, Iraq War Veteran Leonard Clark and Management Consultant Ian Gilyeat are in the running. I see McCain emerging over Hayworth, Lundy, and Deakin 50-42-6-2. I see Glassman prevailing over Starky and Garcia 65-29-6. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

AR-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Blanche Lincoln is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Lincoln, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, and DC Morrison are in the running. On the Republican side, Business Consultant Randy Alexander, State Senators Gilbert Baker, Kim Hendren, and Jim Holt, Congressman John N. Boozman, Businessman Curtis Coleman, FedEx Truck Driver Fred Ramey, and retired Army Officer Conrad Reynolds are in the running. The Greens have unified behind Greenland Mayor John Gray. On the Independent side, Businessman Jasper Beede, Larry Buffington, Writer Adam Cat, UPS Employee Trevor Drown, and Technology Consultant Christopher Nogy are in the running. I see Halter crushing Lincoln and Morrison 55-43-2. I see Boozman winning the Primary with 39%. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

CA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Barbara Boxer is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Boxer. On the Republican side, former Congressman Tom Campbell, State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina,  Steven Greyclanus, Businessman Al Ramirez, and Evangelical Pastor Mosheh Thezion are in the running. The AIP’s have unified behind Chiropractor Don Grundmann. The Greens have unified behind Community Organizer Duane Roberts. The Libertarians have unified behind former State Party Chairwoman Gail Lightfoot. The Independents have unified behind Jerry Leon Carroll. I see Campbell emerging over Fiorina and DeVore 40-34-26. At this point, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT.

CO-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Michael Bennet will stand for election. On the Democratic side, Bennet and former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff are in the running. On the Republican side, Attorney Steve Barton, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Physician Robert Greenheck, Water Conservancy District Manager Gary Kennedy, Investor Vincent Martinez, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, Businessman Cleve Tidwell, Confectionery Distribution Company Owner Mark Van Wyk, and State Senator Tom Wiens are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Businessman Maclyn Stringer. I see Romanoff prevailing over Bennet 53-47. I see Norton prevailing over Buck, Wiens, Kennedy, Tidwell, Barton, Martines, Greenheck, and Van Wyk 42-39-12-4-1-1 and the rest below 1%. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

GA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Johnny Isakson is running for re-election. The Republicans are unifying behind Isakson, the Democrats are unifying behind former Rockdale County Commission Chief of Staff RJ Hadley, and the Libertarians are unifying behind Chuck Donovan. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

HI-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Daniel Inouye is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Inouye. The Republicans have no announced candidates, but Governor Linda Lingle is a potential candidate. At this point, if Lingle runs, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT. If she doesn’t, then I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

ID-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Mike Crapo is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Crapo. The Demmocrats have unified behind Attorney William Bryk. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

IA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Chuck Grassley. The Republicans have unified behind Grassley. On the Democratic side, former US Attorney Roxanne Conlin, former State Senator Tom Fiegen, former State Representative Bob Krause, and Engineer Sal Mohamed are in the running. I see Conlin defeating Krause, Fiegen, and Mohamed 67-21-11-1. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

LA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator David Vitter is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Vitter and Porn Star Stormy Daniels are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Congressman Charlie Melancon. The Libertarians have unified behind Refinery Supervisor Anthony Gentile. The Independents have unified behind retired Volunteer Fire Chief Bob Lang. I see Vitter blowing Daniels(out of the water) 83-17. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

MD-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Barbara Mikulski is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Mikulski. On the Republican side, former State Delegate Carmen Amedori, Engineer Daniel McAndrew, Businessman John Curran, Attorney Jim Rutledge, Limousine Company Owner Corrogan Vaughn, anf Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Eric Wargotz are in the running. The Independents have unified behind retired Minister Robert Brookman. I see Wargotz prevailing over Amedori, Vaughn, McAndrew, Curran, and Rutledge 45-40-9-3-2-1. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

NV-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Reid. On the Republican side, former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, Investment Banker John Chachas, State Assemblyman Chad Christensen, former State Board of Education Member Greg Dagani, Dentist Chuck Flume,  Attorney Chuck Kozak, former State GOP Chair Sue Lowden, Business Administrator Mark Noonan, Project Manager Bill Parson, and Businessmen Terry Suominen and Danny Tarkanian are in the running. The IAP’s have unified behind Businessman Tim Fasano. The Libertarians have unified behind Radio Talk Show Host Jim Duensing. On the Independent cside, Jerry Carter, Businessman Jeff Durbin, Michael Haines, Jessie Holland, Jeffrey Reeves, and Wil Stand are in the running. I see Lowden defeating Tarkanian and Angle 49-25-19 with the rest polling single digits. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

NC-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Burr, Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks, Electronics Store Owner Brad Jones, and former State Representative Larry Linney are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State senator Cal Cunningham, Accountant Susan Harris, Attorney Kenneth Lewis and Marcus Williams, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Minister W. Ann Worthy are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Business Consultant Mike Beitler. I see Burr trouncing Burks, Linney, and Jones 79-12-7-2. I see Cunning have narrowly scoring an upset with the help of the Liberal Grassroots 43-42-8-4-1-1 over Marshall, Lewis, Harris, Williams, and Worthy. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

NY-SEN A: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Schumer, Comedian Randy Credico, 08′ State Assembly candidate  Lumies Huff, and Illinois Political Consultant Phil Krone are in the running. The only announced Republican candidate is GOP Activist Martin Chicon, but CNBC TV Show Host and Economist Larry Kudlow is considering getting in this race. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRAT.

NY-SEN B: Appointed Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will stand for election. On the Democratic side, Gillibrand, Oral Surgeon Scott Noren, and former National Writers Union President Jonathan Tasini are in the running. On the Republican side, former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi are in the running. The Conservatives have unified behind Businessman Jaques Ditte. The Constitution Party has unified behind Religious Right Activist Jan Johnson. The Greens have unified behind Civil Servant Jeff Peress. I see Gillibrand crushing Tasini and Noren 74-20-6. I see Blakeman defeating DioGuardi 55-45. St this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

OK-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Tom Coburn is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Coburn. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but Governor Brad Henry is a potential candidate. At this point, if Henry runs, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED. If he doesn’t, then I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

OR-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Wyden, Fitness Instructor Pavel Goberman, and Farmer Loren Hooker are in the running. On the Republican side, Businessmen Kareem Hamdy and Loren Later, Businesswoman Robin Parker, Realtor Tom Stutzman, and Construction Artisan Tradesman Walter Woodman. The Greens have unified behind Psychiatrist Rick Staggenborg. The Libertarians have unified behind Financial Planner Marc Delphine. Wyden will defeat Hooker and Goberman 85-13-2. The Republican Primary is a TOSSUP. Regardless of who wins, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRAT.

PA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Arlen Specter is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Specter, Congressman Joe Sestak, and Machinist Joe Vodvarka are in the running. On the Republican side, Conservative Activist Peg Lusisk and former Congressman and former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey are in the running. The Greens have unified behind Physician Assistant Mel Packer. The Libertarians have unified behind Businessman Larry Murphy. The Independent Americans have unified behind Pastoral Degree Student Mike Yilit. I see Sestak pulling an upset with the help of the Liberal Grassroots 49-47 over Specter. I see Toomey defeating Lusisk 72-28. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

SC-SEN: Incumbent GOP US Senator Jim DeMint is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind DeMint. On the Democratic side, Attorney Chad McGowan and retired Auto Company Executive Mike Ruckes are in the running. I expect Ruckes to defeat McGowan in the Primary. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

SD-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator John Thune is running for re-election.The Republicans have unified behind Thune. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but State Senator Nancy Turbak Berry is considering the race. Whether or not Berry runs, thIS race is SAFE REPUBLICAN.

UT-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Bob Bennett is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Bennett, Business Consultant Tim Bridgewater, Businesswoman and Conservative Activist Cherilyn Eager, Attorney Mike Lee, and Businessman James Williams are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind State Alcohol Beverage Control Commissioner Sam Granato. I expect Eager to teabag Bennett to death at the convention. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

VT-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Pat Leahy is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Leahy and Physician Daniel Freilich are in the running. The Republicans have unified behind Lumber Store Owner Len Britton. On the Independent side, Cris Ericson and John LaPierre Jr. are in the running. I expect Leahy to trounce Freilich in the Primary. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

WA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Patty Murray is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Murray. On the Republican side, Physician Arthur Coday Jr., State Senator Don Benton, former Pro Football Player Clint Didier, Truck Driver Wayne Glover, Electrical Engineering Instructor Scott Johnson, Businessmen Rod Rieger and Chris Widener, Chiropractor Sean Salzar, and Energy Trader Craig Williams are in the running. I see Benton emerging over Didier, 44-29 with the rest polling in the single digits. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

WI-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Feingold. On the Republican side, Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall and Businessman Dave Westlake are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Cumberland City Alderman Rob Taylor. I see Wall defeating Westlake 59-41. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

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