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My Take on the 2010 GA Races-Take 2

Here’s a rundown of how I think the 2010 GA races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Republican Governor George “Sonny” Perdue is term-limited. On the Republican side, State Senators Jeff Chapman and Eric Johnson, Congressman Nathan Deal, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, Radio Station Owner Ray McBerry, State Insurance Commissioner John W. Oxendine, and Wal-Mart Employee Otis Putnam are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, former Governor Roy Barnes, Management Technical Consultant Bill Bolton, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon, Entrepreneur Randal Mangham, State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Grady County Planning Commission Member John Monds. The Independents have unified behind Ray Boyd. Environmental Activist Sam Hay III is running as a write-in candidate. I expect Oxendine and Deal to make it into the Runoff. Oxendine will defeat Deal 59-41 in the Runoff. I expect Barnes to handily emerge 55-34-8-2-1 over Baker, Porter, Poythress, and Camon(Bolton and Mangham will poll below 1%). I see Oxendine prevailing over Barnes, Monds, and Boyd 52-43-4-1. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Cagle. On the Democratic side, Journalist Tricia Carpenter-McCracken and Businesswoman and wife of State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter Carol Porter. I see Porter emerging over McCracken and Sinkfield 76-24. I expect Cagle to trounce Porter 63-37. GOP HOLD.

Secretary of State: Appointed Incumbent Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp will stand for election. On the Republican side, Kemp and Sandy Springs City Councilor Doug MacGinnitie are in the running. On the Democratic side, State Senator and 06′ nominee Gail Buckner, Attorney Gary Horlacher, Real Estate Saleswoman Georganna Sinkfield, Public Relations Executive Michael Mills, and Businesswoman Angela Moore are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Aeronautics Industry Analyst David Chastain. The GOP Primary is a complete tossup. I see Buckner, Horlacher, and Mills as the Democratic frontrunners. Whoever the GOP nominates will defeat whoever the Democrats nominate. Kemp 65-35 over Horlacher, Kemp 61-39 over Mills, Kemp 59-41 over Buckner, MacGinnitie 60-40 over Horlacher, MacGinnitie over Mills 58-42, or MacGinnitie over Buckner 55-45. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Thurbert Baker is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, former Dougherty Circuit District Attorney Ken Hodges and State Representative Rob Teilhet are in the running. On the Republican side, Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens, State Senator Preston Smith, and former US Attorney Max Wood are in the running. I see Teilhet emerging over Hodges 65-35. The GOP Primary is a complete Tossup. Regardless of who wins the GOP Primary, the race is a TOSSUP.

State School Superintendent: Incumbent Republican State School Superintendent Kathy Cox is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Cox and School System Administrators John D. Barge and Richard Woods are in the running. On the Democratic side, University Administrator Beth Farokhi, Educator Sandra Cannon Scott, and Teachers Joe Martin and Brian Westlake are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Teacher Kira Willis. The GOP Primary is a complete Tossup. I see Farokhi prevailing over Westlake, Martin, and Scott 57-34-5-4. I see whoever the Republicans nominate defeating Farokhi. Cox 53-42-5, Barge 55-42-3, or woods 57-40-3. GOP HOLD.

State Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Democratic State Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin is retiring. The Democrats have unified behind State Senator JB Powell. On the Republican side, Georgia Agribusiness Council President Gary Black and former USDA Official Darwin Carter are in the running. I see Black beating Carter 61-39. I see Black beating Powell 56-44. GOP GAIN.

State Insurance Commissioner: Incumbent Republican State Insurance Commissioner John W. Oxendine is running for Governor. On the Republican side, Attorney’s Rick Collum and Maria Sheffield, State Senators Seth Harp and Ralph Hudgens, State Representative Tom Knox, Insurance Brokers Dennis Cain, John Mamalakis, and Stephen D. Northington, and Health Benefits Consultant Gerry Purcell are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind former State Senator Mary Squires. I see Harp, Knox, Northington, and Purcell as the frontrunners for the GOP Primary. Whoever wins will beat Squires by a large margin. Harp 64-63, Knox 64-36, Northington 60-40, or Purcell 59.5-40.5. GOP HOLD.

State Labor Commissioner: Incumbent Democratic State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond is running for the US Senate. On the Democratic side, Deputy Agriculture Commissioner Terry Coleman and Lobbyist Darryl Hicks. On the Republican side, State Representatives Mark Butler and Melvin Everson are in the running. Coleman will defeat Hicks 57-43. The GOP Primary is a tossup. I see the General as a TOSSUP.

Public Service Commission: Incumbent Republican Public Service Commissioner Bobby Baker is retiring. On the Republican side, Developer B. Joseph Brush, State Senators John Douglas and Jeff May, and Non-Profit Executive Tim Echols are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Government Affairs Consultant Keith Moffett. I see Douglas, May, and Echols as the GOP frontrunners. Whoever wins will handily defeat Moffett. Douglas 62-38, May 60-40, or Echols 58-42. GOP HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent Republican US Senator Johnny Isakson is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Isakson. On the Democratic side, former Rockdale County Commission Chief of Staff RJ Hadley and State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Airline Pilot Chuck Donovan. I see Thurmond crushing Hadley 67-33. I see Isakson prevailing over Thurmond 53-47. GOP HOLD.

US Congress:

GA-01: Incumbent Republican Congressman Jack Kingston is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Kingston. The Democrats have unified behind Retired Farmer Oscar L. Harris II. I see Kingston defeating Harris 70-30. GOP HOLD.

GA-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Sanford Bishop is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Bishop. On the Republican side, President of Medical Supply Company Rick Allen, Retiree Lee Ferrell, and State Representative Mike Keown are in the running. I see Keown defeating Ferrell and Allen 58-31-11. I see Keown narrowly upending Bishop 52-48. GOP GAIN.

GA-03: Incumbent Republican Congressman Lynn Westmoreland is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Westmoreland. The Democrats have unified behind Educator Frank Saunders. The Independents have unified behind Alan Weaver. I see Westmoreland defeating Saunders and Weaver 68-31-1. GOP HOLD.

GA-04: Incumbent Hank “Guam” Johnson is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Johnson, former DeKalb County Commission Chairman Vernon Jones, and DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes are in the running. On the Republican side, Publisher Victor Armendariz, Management Consultants Liz Carter and Cory Ruth and Airport Hangar Manager Larry Gause are in the running. I see Guam standing 67-21-12 over Stokes and Jones. I see Carter pausing Gause, Ruth, and Armendariz 57-36-5-2. Guam won’t be tipping over this cycle. He’ll stand against Carter 71-29. DEM HOLD.

GA-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman John Lewis is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lewis. On the Republican side, Attorney Fenn Little and Graphic Designer Kelly Nguyen are in the running. I see Little beating Nguyen 75-25. I see Lewis defeating Little 83-17. DEM HOLD.

GA-06: Incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Price is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Price. The Democrats have no candidates. GOP HOLD.

GA-07: Incumbent Republican Congressman John Linder is retiring. On the Republican side, State Representative Clay Cox, Gwinett County GOP Chairman Chuck Efstration, Real Estate Consultant Jef Fincher, Retiree Ronnie Grist, Minister Jody Hice, Human Resource Safety Manager Tom Kirby, CPA Tom Parrott, and Chief of Staff Rob Woodall are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Marketer Doug Heckman. I see Cox, Efstration, Kirby, and Woodall as the GOP frontrunners. Whoever wins will defeat Heckman. Cox 62-38, Efstration 60-40, Kirby and Woodall 58-42. GOP HOLD.

GA-08: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Marshall is running for re-election. The Demorats have unified behind Marshall. On the Republican side, Central Fellowship Christian Academy Dean Ken DeLoach, State Representative Austin Scott, and Nurse Diane Vann are in the running. I see Scott trumping DeLoach and Vann 63-29-8. I see Scott defeating Marshall 54-46. GOP GAIN.

GA-09: Former Republican Congressman Nathan Deal resigned on March 21, 2010. A Special Election will be held to see who fills out the remainder of his term. On the Republican side, Cardiologist Chris Cates, State Representatives Tom Graves and Bobby Reese, State Senator Lee Hawkins, retired Neurosurgeon Bert Loftman, former State Senator Bill Stephens, and Chickamauga City Councilman Steve Tarvin are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Hall County Democratic Chairman Mike Freeman for the Special Election, but no Democrats filed for the General Election. The Independents have unified behind Marketing Executive Eugene Moon. I see the Special and Primary Elections as a tossup between Graves, Hawkins, and Stephens. GOP HOLD.

GA-10: Incumbent Republican Congressman Paul Broun Jr. is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Broun. The Democrats have unified behind Consultant Russell Edwards. I see Broun defeating Edwards 72-28. GOP HOLD.

GA-11: Incumbent Republican Congressman Phil Gingrey is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Gingrey. The Democrats have no candidates. GOP HOLD.

GA-12: Incumbent Democratic Congressman John Barrow is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Barrow and former State Senator Regina Thomas are in the running. On the Republican side, Special Investigator Michael Horner, Project Manager Raymond McKinney, Aviation Executive Jeanne Seaver, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith are in the running. I see Barrow defeating Thomas 60-40. I see McKinney, Seaver, and Smith as the GOP frontrunners. I see Barrow winning over whoever the GOP nominates. Barrow 52-48 over Smith, 53-47 over McKinney, or 55-45 over Seaver. DEM HOLD.

GA-13: Incumbent Democratic Congressman David Scott is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Scott, Web Content and Graphic Designer Michael Frisbee, and Regional Manager Mike Murphy are in the running. On the Republican side, General Contractor Mike Crane, Salesman Hank R. Dudek, Small Business Owners Chip Flanagan and Rupert Parchment, Physician Deborah Honeycutt, and Restaurant Manager Dave Orr are in the running. I see Scott prevailing over Frisbee and Murphy 64-27-9. The GOP Primary is a tossup between Honeycutt and Parchment. Whoever wins the GOP Primary will lose to Scott. Scott 70-30 over Honeycutt, or Scott 61-39 over Parchment. DEM HOLD.

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