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May 18 Primary Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming Primaries on May 18:

KY-SEN GOP Primary:

Paul 53%
Grayson 44%
Stephenson 2%
Martin and Scribner poll either at or below 1%.

KY-SEN DEM Primary:

Mongiardo 51%
Conway 45%
Price 3%
Buckmaster and Farmer poll either at or under 1%.

Paul beats Mongiardo 51-49 in the General.

KY-03 GOP Primary:

Lally 50%
Reetz 41%
Hausman 4%
Durbin 3%
Wicker 2%

Lally loses to Incumbent Democrat Yarmuth 53-47 in the General.

KY-05 DEM Primary:

Prince 59%
Holbert 35%
Stepp 6%

Prince loses to Incumbent Republican Rogers 69-31 in the General.

KY-06 GOP Primary:

Barr 48%
Kemper III 39%
Lockett 8%
Barnes 4%
Pendergrass 1%

Barr loses to Incumbent Democrat Chandler 55-45 in the General.

AR-SEN DEM Primary:

Halter 47%
Lincoln 44%
Morrison 9%

AR-SEN GOP Primary:

Boozman 47%
Baker 24%
Holt 19%
Hendren 7%
Coleman 2%
Alexander, Ramey, and Reynolds will poll either at or below 1%.

I see Boozman beating Halter 55-45 in the General.

AR-LT GOV GOP Primary:

Darr 68%
Copeland 32%

I see Democratic challenger Broadway beating Darr 58-42 in the General.

AR-SoS DEM Primary:

Wilcox 55%
O’Brien 31%
Tate 14%

I see Wilcox beating Republican challenger Martin 59-41 in the General.

AR-State Land Commissioner DEM Primary:

Davenport 76%
Bryant 13%
Berg 11%

I see Davenport beating Republican challenger Thurston 64-36 in the General.

AR-01 DEM Primary:

Bryles 30%
Causey 29%
Cook 28%
Wooldridge 7%
Ponder 5%
Green 1%

AR-01 GOP Primary:

Smith 58%
Crawford 42%

AR-01 DEM Runoff:

Bryles 54%
Causey 46%

I see Bryles defeating Smith 54-46 in the General.

AR-02 DEM Primary:

Wills 48%
Elliott 43%
Boling 7%
Kennedy 1%
Adams 1%

AR-02 GOP Primary:

Griffin 60%
Wallace 40%

AR-02 DEM Runoff:

Elliott 51%
Wills 49%

I see Griffin beating Elliott 52-48 in the General.

AR-03 GOP Primary:

Womack 44%
Bledsoe 29%
DeLay 16%
Maddox 7%
Matayo 2%
Skoch 1%
Lowry 1%

AR-03 GOP Runoff:

Womack 62%
Bledsoe 38%

I see Womack beating Democratic challenger David Whitaker 57-43 in the General.

AR-04 GOP Primary:

Gallas 65%
Rankin 35%

I see Incumbent Democrat Ross beating Gallas 56-41 in the General.

PA-GOV DEM Primary:

Onorato 46%
Hoeffel 27%
Wagner 21%
Williams 6%

PA-GOV GOP Primary:

Corbett 78%
Rohrer 22%

I see Corbett beating Onorato 57-43 in the General.

PA-LT GOV GOP Primary:

Beilert 23%
Metcalfe 21%
Cawley 18%
Kennedy 13%
Urban 9%
Pepper 7%
McCue 5%
Diamond 4%

PA-LT GOV DEM Primary:

Saidel 47%
Conklin 42%
Smith-Ribner 11%

I see the General Election as a TOSSUP.

PA-SEN DEM Primary:

Sestak 53%
Specter 46%
Vodvarka 1%

PA-SEN GOP Primary:

Toomey 83%
Lusisk 17%

I see the General Election as a TOSSUP.

PA-03 DEM Primary:

Dahlkemper 92%
Marin 8%

PA-03 GOP Primary:

Kelly 51%
Fisher 32%
Grabb 13%
Huber 2%
Moore 1%
Franz 1%

I see Kelly beating Incumbent Democrat Dahlkemper 51-48 in the General.

PA-04 GOP Primary:

Buchanan 59%
Rothfus 41%

I see Buchanan beating Incumbent Democrat Altmire 50-49 in the General.

PA-06 DEM Primary:

Pike 47%
Trivedi 30%
Sellers 23%

I see Incumbent Republican Gerlach beating Pike 51-49 in the General.

PA-07 DEM Primary:

Lentz 68%
Touey 26%
Conner 6%

I see Meehan beating Lentz 49-48 in the General.

PA-08 GOP Primary:

Fitzpatrick 53%
Jones 34%
Hoffman 8%
Carlineo 5%

I see Fitzpatrick beating Incumbent Democrat Murphy 52-48 in the General.

PA-10 GOP Primary:

Marino 47%
Derk 47%
Madeira 6%

After weeks of recounts, Marino wins by 1 vote.

I see Marino beating Incumbent Democrat Carney 50.1-49.6 in the General.

PA-12 DEM Primary:

O’Brien 46%
Kanjorski 45%
Kelly 9%

PA-11 GOP Primary:

Barletta 77%
Paige 23%

I see Barletta beating O’Brien 53-47 in the General.

PA-12 Special Election:

Burns(R) 52 %
Critz(D) 48 %

PA-12 DEM Primary:

Critz 54%
Bucchianeri 44%
Mackell 2%

PA-12 GOP Primary:

Burns 56%
Russell 44%

I see Burns winning a full term over Critz 54-44 in the General.

PA-13 GOP Primary:

Adcock 48%
Quinter 43%
Haughton 9%

I see Incumbent Democrat Schwartz beating Adcock 63-37 in the General.

PA-15 GOP Primary:

Dent 85%
Benol 15%

I see Dent beating Democratic challenger Callahan 55-43 in the General.

PA-17 DEM Primary:

Holden 56%
Dow Ford 44%

PA-17 GOP Primary:

Argall 55%
Griffith 33%
First 10%
Ryan 2%

I see Argall beating Incumbent Democrat Holden 50.5-49.5 in the General.

PA-19 GOP Primary:

Plaats 64%
Smeltzer 36%

I see Incumbent Republican Plaats beating Democratic challenger Sanders 67-33 in the General.

OR-GOV DEM Primary:

Kitzhaber 59%
Bradbury 36%
Wilson 4%
Obrist 1%

OR-GOV GOP Primary:

Dudley 35%
Alley 29%
Lim 16%
Sizemore 13%
Watkins 4%
Colvin 2%
Karr 1%
Cutright and Forthan will finish either at or below 1%.

I see Kitzhaber beating Dudley 55-44.

OR-State Treasurer DEM Primary:

Wheeler 57%
Metsger 43%

I see Incumbent Democrat Wheeler beating Republican challenger Telfer 58-42 in the General.

OR-SEN DEM Primary:

Wyden 92%
Hooker 5%
Goberman 3%

OR-SEN GOP Primary:

Huffman 30%
Stutzman 24%
Parker 19%
Waldron 14%
Later 9%
Woodland 3%
Dinkel 1%

I see Incumbent Democrat Wyden beating Huffman 60-37.

OR-01 DEM Primary:

Wu 79%
Robinson 21%

OR-01 GOP Primary:

Kuzmanich 41%
Cornilles 38%
Brodhead 12%
Keller 9%

I see Incumbent Democrat Wu beating Kuzmanich 56-39.

OR-03 DEM Primary:

Blumenauer 84%
Sweeney 16%

I see Incumbent Democrat Blumenauer beating Republican challenger Lopez 71-24.

OR-04 GOP Primary:

Robinson 63%
Germond 37%

OR-05 GOP Primary:

Bruun 77%
Thompson 23%

I see Bruun beating Incumbent Democrat Schrader 51-49

Your thoughts.

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