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2011-2012 Elections: Democratic Apocalypse

It has become ever clearer to me that as our economy starts going down the pot, Democrats are poised for apocalyptic losses in all areas state and federal. Here’s how I think it goes down:

2011 races

1. House Specials

NY-26 Special:

Jack Davis(TP)-36%
Jane Corwin(R/C/IP)-35%
Kathy Hochul(D)-29%

CA-36 Special:

Debra Bowen(D)-27%
Janice Hahn(D)-24%
Mike Webb(R)-19%
Marcy Winograd(D)-9%
Mike Gin(R)-6%
Dan Adler(D)-4%
Lorraine Goodwin(D)-4%
Kit Bobko(R)-3%
Stephen Eisele(R)-2%
George Newberry(R)-1%
Craig Huey(R)-1%

CA-36 Special Runoff:

Debra Bowen(D)-53%
Janice Hahn(D)-47%

NV-2 Special:

Kate Marshall(D)-51%
Brian Krolicki(R)-32%
Mark Amodei(R)-10%
Greg Brower(R)-4%
Sharron Angle(R)-2%
Kirk Lippold(R)-1%

Dem +1, Tea Party +1

2. Gubernatorial Races

KY-GOV:

David Lewis Williams/Richard Dwight Farmer Junior(R)-49%
Steven Lynn Beshear/Jerry Edwin Abramson(D)-48%
Louis Gatewood Galbraith/Dea Riley(I)-3%

LA-GOV:

Piyush Jindal(R)-59%
Cathryn Caroline Fayard(D)-33%
John Georges(D)-7%
Daniel Northcutt(I)-1%

MS-GOV:

Phillip Bryant(R)-66%
Johnny DuPree(D)-33%
Shawn O’Hara(Reform)-1%

WV-GOV:

Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-55%
William Maloney(R)-44%
Robert Henry Baber(M)-1%

GOP +1

2012 Races

1. United States Senate Races to Watch

CT-SEN:

Susan Bysiewicz(D)-57%
Michael Fedele(R)-43%

FL-SEN:

Adam Hasner(R)-51%
Bill Nelson(D)-49%

MA-SEN:

Alan Khazei(D)-52%
Scott Brown(R)-48%

MI-SEN:

Thad McCotter(R)-53%
Debbie Stabenow(D)-47%

MO-SEN:

Sarah Steelman(R)-54%
Claire McCaskill(D)-46%

MT-SEN:

Dennis Rehberg(R)-52%
Jon Tester(D)-48%

NE-SEN:

Jon Bruning(R)-60%
Benny Nelson(D)-40%

NJ-SEN:

Joseph Pennachio(R)-51%
Robert Menendez(D)-49%

NM-SEN:

Greg Sowards(R)-51%
Martin Heinrich(D)-49%

ND-SEN:

Brian Kalk(R)-71%
Jasper Schneider(D)-29%

OH-SEN:

Kevin Coughlin(R)-53%
Sherrod Brown(D)-47%

PA-SEN:

Samuel Rohrer(R)-52%
Robert Casey Junior(D)-48%

VA-SEN:

George Allen(R)-54%
Timothy Kaine(D)-46%

WA-SEN:

David Reichert(R)-51%
Maria Cantwell(D)-49%

Resulting in a GOP net gain of +11

2. Gubernatorial Races to Watch

MO-GOV:

Peter D. Kinder(R)-53%
Jeremiah Wilson Nixon(D)-47%

MO-GOV:

Richard Hill(R)-55%
Steve Bullock(D)-45%

NH-GOV:

Ovide LaMontagne(R)-51%
John H. Lynch(D)-49%

NC-GOV:

Patrick Lloyd McCrory(R)-57%
Beverly Eaves Perdue(D)-43%

WA-GOV:

Robert McKenna(R)-53%
Jay Robert Inslee(D)-47%

WV-GOV:

Earl Ray Tomblin(D)-54%
Clark Barnes(R)-46%

GOP +5

3. United States House of Representatives Pickups

Democrats(+2): NY-25, TX-27
Republicans(+72): AZ-7, AZ-8, AR-4, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-47, CA-51, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, GA-2, GA-12, IN-2, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KY-3, KY-6, ME-1, ME-2, MA-3, MA-5, MA-6, MA-10, MI-5, MI-9, MI-15, MN-1, MN-7, MO-3, MO-5, NJ-6, NJ-9, NJ-12, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-4, NY-9, NY-22, NY-23, NY-26, NY-27, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-13, OK-2, OR-1, OR-4, OR-5, PA-4, PA-12, PA-13, PA-17, RI-1, TN-5, TX-5, TX-15, TX-25, UT-2, VA-11, WA-2, WA-6, WA-9, WV-3, WI-3

Resulting in a GOP net gain of +70

4. United States Presidency

Republican Ticket: Donald John Trump/Richard John Santorum
Democratic Ticket: Barack Hussein Obama/John Forbes Kerry

Trump/Santorum(389 EV’s)(54%): AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY
Obama/Kerry(149 EV’s)(43%): CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT

Those races I didn’t mention were held by the incumbent party. In several states, I see Democrats getting demoted to 3rd party status. Pretty soon, Democrats will be the equivalent of the old Whigs. These are my thoughts, and I’d love to hear yours.

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