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2013 and 2014 Predictions

As we approach the end of the 2013 elections and close in on the official start of the 2014 cycle, we are beginning to get a clearer picture with regards to how things will play out when voters go to the polls November 5. For as much as most of those races have yet to fully take shape, we are also starting to get some idea of how 2014 will play out on the state and federal level. Of course, anything can change in the next 13 1/2 months. At this time, these are my predictions with regards to how all these races will go down.

Note: I will not be weighing in on House specials, as I have no knowledge of local factors which will be at play in low-turnout affairs such as these. All I will say is that the incumbent party will retain those 2 seats.

2013

NJ-SEN Special: Cory Booker(D) 56-44 over Steve Lonegan(R). DEM GAIN.

This is the seat which opened up when Frank Lautenberg died. Lonegan is a capable campaigner, but in Democratic New Jersey and against a well known and well liked opponent in Booker, it won’t matter much.

NYC Mayor: Joe Lhota(R) 51-46 over Bill DeBlasio(D). GOP HOLD.

There is a bit of an over-sampling of support of DeBlasio in polling. The arch-Progressive policies as promoted by DeBlasio are fast alienating business types(Bloomberg is refusing to back DeBlasio because of these policy proposals), and DeBlasio’s only barely avoiding a runoff gives many pause, as does the fact that 60% of Primary voters cast votes against him. Lhota has a very good pedigree as a Giuliani and Bloomberg administration official. While DeBlasio should perform well in Manhattan and the Bronx, Lhota should swamp him in the islands of Staten and Long and win Brooklyn by a small, but convincing margin. All this results in the big upset of the evening.

NJ-GOV: Chris Christie(R) 59-41 over Barbara Buono(D). GOP HOLD.

Governor Christie has retained high support from all sides ever since the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, and his support seems to have cemented in the wake of the boardwalk fires. While his polling has seemed to be falling in recent weeks, I’d say it’s more a matter of Democrats finally deciding to vote for the candidate of their party. While Buono will not win, she could be seen as a likely successor to disgraced Senator Bob Menendez in 2018.

VA-GOV: Ken Cuccinelli(R) 52-47 over Terry McCauliffe(D). GOP HOLD.

Ken Cuccinelli’s been on the road promoting his latest jobs plan and education initiatives(you can read all about his 12-step plan) to positive reviews, while Terry McCaulliffe has been deflecting charges of corruption and cronyism from his days as both a Green Tech adviser and a Clinton campaign lackey. The debates will soon be upon us, and a contrast will be made not just in ideas, but also in appearance(think Kennedy/Nixon). Cuccinelli comes across as young and telegenic, versus Old Crusty McCauliffe’s stiffness(he is everything Democrats rather unfairly made Romney into). Ideas will only ice the cake. Cuccinelli can articulate his vision clearly and cohesively, while McCauliffe will be reliant solely upon rehearsed talking points and will be constantly on the defensive over Green Tech, his seedy dealings while in DC, and his glaring personal problems(he brags in his autobiography about things which make him out to be the shadiest of the shady). Cuccinelli will win, and not by a particularly narrow margin. Down-ballot, Mark Obershain(R) will beat Mark Herring(D) for the AG position 54-46(GOP HOLD), while the GOP will sustain a narrower than expected defeat in the LG contest{Ralph Northam(D) will defeat EW Jackson Sr.(R) 52-48(DEM GAIN)}.

2014

US Senate:

AL-SEN: Jeff Sessions(R) runs and wins unopposed. GOP HOLD.
AK-SEN: Mead Treadwell(R) 53-47 over Mark Begich(D). GOP GAIN.
AR-SEN: Tom Cotton(R) 55-45 over Mark Pryor(D). GOP GAIN.
CO-SEN: Ken Buck(R) 51-48 over Mark Udall(D). GOP GAIN.
DE-SEN: Chris Coons(D) 60-38 over Tom Kovach(R). DEM HOLD.
GA-SEN: Paul Broun(R) 55-45 over Michelle Nunn(D). GOP HOLD.
HI-SEN: Brian Schatz(D) beats Coleen Hanabusa(D) 52-48 in the Primary, wins unopposed in the General Election. DEM HOLD.
ID-SEN: Jim Risch(R) runs and wins unopposed. GOP HOLD.
IL-SEN: Dick Durbin(D) 56-43 over Joe Walsh(R). DEM HOLD.
IA-SEN: Bob Vander Plaats(R) 50-49 over Bruce Braley(D). GOP GAIN.
KS-SEN: Tim Huelskamp(R) 66-34 over Tom Holland(D). GOP HOLD.
KY-SEN: Mitch McConnell(R) 57-43 over Alison Lundergan Grimes(D). GOP HOLD.
LA-SEN: Jeff Landry(R) 52-48 over Mary Landrieu(D). GOP GAIN.
ME-SEN: Susan Collins(R) 58-42 over Chellie Pingree(D). GOP HOLD.
MA-SEN: Ed Markey(D) 62-38 over Michael Sullivan(R). DEM HOLD.
MI-SEN: Terri Lynn Land(R) 52-46 over Gary Peters(D). GOP GAIN.
MN-SEN: Al Franken(D) 54-44 over Mike McFadden(R). DEM HOLD.
MS-SEN: Thad Cochran(R) runs and wins unopposed. GOP HOLD.
MT-SEN: Champ Edmunds(R) 59-41 over Dirk Adams(D). GOP GAIN.
NE-SEN: Shane Osborn(R) 60-40 over Chris Beutler(D). GOP HOLD.
NH-SEN: Charlie Bass(R) 50-48 over Jeanne Shaheen(D). GOP GAIN.
NJ-SEN: Cory Booker(D) 53-47 over Steve Lonegan(R). DEM HOLD.
NM-SEN: John Sanchez(R) 51-49 over Tom Udall(D). GOP GAIN.
NC-SEN: Greg Brannon(R) 53-45 over Kay Hagan(D). GOP GAIN.
OK-SEN: Jim Inhofe(R) 72-26 over Matt Silverstein(D). GOP HOLD.
OR-SEN: Jeff Merkeley(D) 53-43 over Jason Conger(R). DEM HOLD.
RI-SEN: Jack Reed(D) runs and wins unopposed. DEM HOLD.
SC-SEN: Nancy Mace(R) 64-36 over Jay Stamper(D). GOP HOLD.
SD-SEN: Mike Rounds(R) 67-33 over Rick Weiland(D). GOP GAIN.
TN-SEN: Lamar Alexander(R) 70-29 over Larry Crim(D). GOP HOLD.
TX-SEN: Louie Gohmert(R) 55-43 over John Sharp(D). GOP HOLD.
VA-SEN: Mark Warner(D) 65-35 over EW Jackson Sr.(R). DEM HOLD.
WV-SEN: Shelley Moore Capito(R) 57-41 over Natalie Tennant(D). GOP GAIN.
WY-SEN: Liz Cheney(R) 64-34 over Keith Goodenough(D). GOP HOLD.

GOP +12, bringing them from 45 seats to 57, making the GOP the majority party.

Governors:

AL-GOV: Robert Bentley(R) 63-36 over Craig Ford(D). GOP HOLD.
AK-GOV: Sean Parnell(R) 58-39 over Byron Mallot(D). GOP HOLD.
AZ-GOV: Ken Bennett(R) 55-42 over Fred DuVal(D). GOP HOLD.
AR-GOV: Asa Hutchinson(R) 54-45 over Mike Ross(D). GOP GAIN.
CA-GOV: Jerry Brown(D) 57-41 over Tim Donnelly(R). DEM HOLD.
CO-GOV: Tom Tancredo(R) 52-46 over John Hickenlooper(D). GOP GAIN.
CT-GOV: Tom Foley(R) 51-49 over Dan Malloy(D). GOP GAIN.
FL-GOV: Rick Scott(R) 51-48 over Charlie Crist(D). GOP HOLD.
GA-GOV: Nathan Deal(R) 58-41 over Connie Stokes(D). GOP HOLD.
HI-GOV: Neil Abercrombie(D) runs and wins unopposed. DEM HOLD.
ID-GOV: Butch Otter(R) runs and wins unopposed. GOP HOLD.
IL-GOV: Dan Rutherford(R) 53-44 over Pat Quinn(D). GOP GAIN.
IA-GOV: Terry Branstad(R) 60-37 over Bob Krause(D). GOP HOLD.
KS-GOV: Sam Brownback(R) 60-39 over Paul Davis(D). GOP HOLD.
ME-GOV: Paul LePage(R) 40-37-19 over Mike Michaud(D) and Eliot Cutler(I). GOP HOLD.
MD-GOV: Doug Gansler(D) 63-37 over David Craig(R). DEM HOLD.
MA-GOV: Charlie Baker(R) 50-48 over Don Berwick(D). GOP GAIN.
MI-GOV: Rick Snyder(R) 52-48 over Mark Schauer(D). GOP HOLD.
MN-GOV: Kurt Zellers(R) 51-47 over Mark Dayton(D). GOP GAIN.
NE-GOV: Pete Ricketts(R) 68-32 over Annette DuBas. GOP HOLD.
NV-GOV: Brian Sandoval(R) 58-40 over Steve Sisolak(D). GOP HOLD.
NH-GOV: George Lambert(R) 50-49 over Maggie Hassan(D). GOP GAIN.
NM-GOV: Susana Martinez(R) 53-45 over Gary King(D). GOP HOLD.
NY-GOV: Andrew Cuomo(D) 58-38 over Bob Turner(R). DEM HOLD.
OH-GOV: John Kasich(R) 52-45 over Ed FitzGerald(D). GOP HOLD.
OK-GOV: Mary Fallin(R) 79-21 over RJ Harris(D). GOP HOLD.
OR-GOV: John Kitzhaber(D) 51-43 over Dennis Richardson(R). DEM HOLD.
PA-GOV: Tom Corbett(R) 50-47 over Rob McCord(D). GOP HOLD.
RI-GOV: Allan Fung(R) 49-48 over Gina Raimondo(D). GOP GAIN.
SC-GOV: Nikki Haley(R) 54-46 over Vincent Sheheen(D). GOP HOLD.
SD-GOV: Dennis Daugaard(R) runs and wins unopposed. GOP HOLD.
TN-GOV: Bill Haslam(R) 65-33 over Craig FitzHugh(D). GOP HOLD.
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott(R) 56-42 over Wendy Davis(D). GOP HOLD.
VT-GOV: Peter Schumlin(D) runs and wins unopposed. DEM HOLD.
WI-GOV: Scott Walker(R) 53-46 over Mary Burke(D). GOP HOLD.
WY-GOV: Cindy Hill(R) beats Governor Matt Mead(R) 52-48 in the Primary, and wins unopposed in the General Election.

GOP +8, which brings them to 39 Governorships.

US House of Representatives:

GOP: AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, CA-3, CA-7, CA-9, CA-26, CA-36, CA-41, CA-53, CO-7, CT-4, CT-5, FL-9, FL-18, FL-26, GA-12, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12, IL-17, IA-1, IA-2, KY-3, ME-2, MA-4, MA-6, MA-9, MN-1, MN-7, NV-4, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-6, NY-1, NY-18, NY-21, NC-7, OR-5, PA-17, TX-23, UT-4, WV-3
Democrats: CA-31, CO-6, NY-11

GOP nets 40 seats, bringing them to 274 in the House.

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