Can Romney win? And not just win or loose but by how much. So the choices are win big or narrow, loose big or narrow.
Talk radio's Hugh Hewett posed that question today, and try as I might I was unable to respond but it got me to thinking. Hugh being a lawyer he immediately challenged the first caller, after the caller was on the air to defend his position with electoral vote wins
Explain why! And like any good lawyer (and Hugh well tell you he is a great lawyer, you don't even have to ask him), he wanted details. What states will Obama loose that Obama carried in 2008.
The more I thought about how I would defend that the more I realized that this is an important exercise for the Romney campaign. They need to hear this.
I live in Southern New Jersey, and am an active part of the Philadelphia Metro marketing region. This includes Northern Delaware, South Eastern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey. The dominant city is Philadelphia.
Has anything happened since 2008 that could change voting in Philadelphia? The more I thought about this the more I realized that PA could go for Romney.
- Philadelphia has a black majority population, with big Latino and Asian populations. Sure, the black majority may still want Obama for no other reason, but a few things are obvious. Jobs are harder to come by now then they were four years ago, and the black population has suffered more than most. Enthusiasm may wane. But there is more.
- Obama is rich, he flaunts his wealth, golfing playing and while most people will defend the mans right to enjoy himself, it still just rubs it in to the average guy, especially the average black guy that Obama isn't about sharing. He talks about redistributing wealth but it seems that it never gets redistributed to anyone you know. But there is more.
- People are seeing electricity costs soar. PECO electric company is part of the big Obama supporter and "green power" advocate Exelon. They have shut down any remaining coal plants in the Philadelphia region, putting hundreds of people out of work. This is not a coincidence but a direct action to a request by Obama. And of course, this hurts people in Philadelphia which is majority black. But there is more
- There is a very big Muslim presence in Philadelphia. The black churches are a strong influence. Both groups are undermined by Obama's embracing Gay marriage. The Muslim community especially since this has to alienate any Muslim run country hurting relations with other mosques through out the world. But there is more
- The Catholic church here has been on both sides of the abortion demand issue, and there are many people who were put off by Obama's trickery to get this implemented.
- But wait, lets move on to the rest of the region. Take New Castle county Delaware. This county was really hard hit, I have seen numbers as high as 37% unemployment. That is not surprising. Obama promised to save the auto industry, but hey, NOT in Delaware! Obama through Delaware auto workers under the bus and this was almost the only remaining industry left in that county. The largest employer in the area the former Chrysler plant was shuttered to save Midwestern jobs, and Saturn was scrapped not sold. The Fiscar electric everyman car is a bust, it turns out to be a bad joke. But don't count just the heads that were laid off from Saturn. For every worker on the assembly line there were dozens or more employed in small contractors, vendors, small manufacturers, service industries, and transportation industries. All these jobs that depended on Saturn plant disappeared over night, on Obama's say so. Not to mention all the retail business that supported all these workers. The loss was devastating. Taxes of course have gone up, services down and the county is still in trouble.
- But there is more. The Financial reforms hurt Delaware's only other industry banking, and the lack of new small business growth hurt the cottage industry built around headquartering your corporation in Delaware.
- But there is more. New Castle county (and Wilmington) is only a short ride from South Jersey or Philadelphia. The regions corridors are chuck full of commuters going both ways. We live, work and play regionally. And one of the big employers here is Boeing. One of the only industries (other than the closed coal plants) still operating along the Industrial highway. They make V22 Ospreys. Didn't Obama cancel that contract?
- But there is still more. The Obama attack on Oil has hurt refining in the region, job loses, plant closures and of course thousands of support company workers out of a job. The Obama administration policies on oil and coal have continued to crush hope in the region. The attacks on bankers, visceral nasty attacks, have not done anything positive for an important segment of the employers here.
In short there are a lot of reasons that Pennsylvanians will be less than enthusiastic to come out and vote for Obama. And that includes majority black cities like Philadelphia and the surrounding regions.
Now if the Romney campaign were to show up and remind people about these "benefits" of Obama they just might be surprised how much Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware is in play. Sure I know Delaware is not even a blip on the chart of electoral votes, but might I remind you of the political hay available to the Romney campaign if Obama can't even carry Joe Biden's home state. Which considering all the things the Obama administration did to Delaware on behalf of other regions in the country, that is a very real possibility. And worth the effort
So Hugh, put me down for a big win for Romney in 2012, and I think he will carry Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey. I don't have time to go into it but the same logic applies to New York. Yes, I think Romney can win New York, Romney just needs to fight for it, and remind Americans there just how divisive this president has been in the past. Think scared bankers, think multimillion 1% traders, think high taxes, think it could have been Billary!
Now before you ask, yes I keep saying 2012. Since Obama can run again in 2016, and Obama the ex-president will be far more effective then Obama the president. Even a convicted felon can be more effective than Obama as President, just ask West Virginia. wait, did Obama carry West Virginia in 2008? You can add that to my list of states Romney can win too. Yes sir, anyone can be a more effective president, but leader of the shadow government? No, Obama has that hands down and I would not want to be Romney in 2016 or any year in between.
But that is another post.
Advocate for Traditionalism. A belief that government should put the respect for the limit of it's authority before any other consideration. A central platform idea to repeal the 16th and 17th amendments and restore diversity, self government and liberty to all American's the way the founders intended it to evolve. Big tent Tea Party friendly ideas to restore America.