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MEMBER DIARY

Simplify the Pi folks… Santorum is better off with Newt and Ron remaining in the race…

Short diary… came from a comment:

Look something that is being overlooked…

1. In order for Santorum to get 1144 and cinch… he’d have to win 66.6% (905) of all remaining unallocated delegates….(1358 – H/T CNN delegate calculator) (not impossible)…

2. In order for Santorum and Gingrich to deny Romney 1144… they need to combine to get 51.4% (699) of the remaining unallocated delegates. (more likely than “not impossible”)…

3. In order for Romney to cinch 1144 he has to win 48.6% (660) of the remaining unallocated delegates.

4. If it were a 2 man race…and supposing Newt and Ron gave all of their delegates to Santorum and dropped out…(HIGHLY UNLIKELY) Santorum would then have to win 700 delegates to get to 1144 or (51.4% of remaining unallocated delegates)… leaving Romney 2 delegates short of 1144 in this hypothetical.

The best chance Santorum has of going into a convention with more delegates than Romney… is to not only have 3 candidates to remove Romney’s needed 660 to cinch rather than going head to head… The practicality of WTA, and remaining demographics notwithstanding, Santorum would do well to encourage Newt to stay in the race and assist him in gobbling up proportional delegates in states that aren’t demographically advantageous to Santorum… or hope to make up a large gap on his own in a 4 man race…

H/T: 538′s Nate Silver did a mock up pre-Alabama/Missippi of what remaining states would have to deny Romney the plurality:

Take it or leave it… everything in the “Not Romney” column either breaks for Santorum, Newt, Paul, in this hypothetical, or most likely Romney will win the plurality, and possibly the magical 1144.

Please don’t shoot the messenger, and NO this isn’t an endorsement for Newt, Mitt, Rick, or Ron… I’m just pointing out the “fuzzy maths”.

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