For the first time, Intrade predicts Romney winner of Electoral College
The Intrade prediction market, where participants wager real money on the outcome of the election, has tipped in favor of the Romney/Ryan ticket in the state-by-state betting on the Electoral College. Today’s forecast is for a Romney victory of 275 Electoral Votes. The state that flipped which put Romney over the top is, of course, Ohio.
The straight ticket wager still has Obama winning at 53%, down a whopping 30 points off of his all time high. Prior to the first debate trades were in the 80’s for President Obama to win re-election. Since then his shares have been mercilessly beaten down, with the second and third debates having virtually no effect on the free fall.
The betting data for individual states had Obama winning the Electoral College by over 330 electoral votes earlier this season. Since then Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and now Ohio have fallen into the Romney column. Even the New Hampshire contract is flirting with a Romney win.
Intrade participants put their money where their mouth is, and right now their money is on a nail-biter.