There are many on the right who believe if the Republicans nominate a ham sandwich, it will defeat President Obama in 2012. They believe President Obama’s re-election will be a redux of President Carter’s attempt in 1980. President Carter won five states( and DC) in his attempt to be re-elected: Minnesota, West Virginia, Rhode Island and Georgia for a total of 49 electoral college votes.
I guarantee President Obama will win more than five states and has a lock on a lot more than 49 electorial college votes. Let us take a look at the Electorial college map from 2008:
Obama defeated McCain 365-173.
Let’s start with the good news. Due to changes in the electoral college, if this same result occurred now, Obama’s victory would be narrowed to 359-179.
I am also making the assumption every state won by McCain will support the Republican nominee.
In the race to 270 electorial votes, the Republican nominee starts with 179.
Now, I am going to give theses states to President Obama as locked up: CA,CT,DE, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD,NY, OR, RI,WA,VT for a lock on 168 electorial college votes.
I should probably give NJ’s 14 electorial college votes to Obama for a total of 182, but I live in New Jersey and I like to think there is a chance, so indulge me.
Now this leads me to the states President Obama has the advantage: ME, MI, MN, NJ, NV, OH, PA ,WI this brings his total to 270 and a second term.
Governor Christie warned Republicans on Monday:
Anyone who underestimates the president underestimates at their own peril …(Democrats) know how to campaign, they know politics. … People who believe he’s a shoo-in loser are wrong.
I think I just proved by the numbers, why Governor Christie is correct.