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Early Voting Update

Last week Brad Smith had a great diary with some 2010 early voting numbers from George Mason University’s web page. The 2008 early voting numbers are here. Since we have a significant percentage of the early vote now in, I have listed below those states where we have comparative 2008 early voting numbers. The total next to each state represents the total early vote in thus far, together with the final early vote for 2008. The percentages in the table below show what percentage of the early vote is represented by Democrat and Republican registered voters, not the party they voted for.

In every case the Republican early vote is much better than 2008, and the Democrat early vote is down in every state except for West Virginia. Given the low approval rating for Obama in that state, I can only surmise that many of those registered Democrats are voting for the Republican.

There are two states that have statistics broken down by race, Louisiana and North Carolina. In Louisiana, the black early vote thus far for 2010 is 19.5%, vs. 35.6% for 2008. In North Carolina, the black early vote for 2010 is 16.9% vs. 26.5% for 2008.

One state, North Carolina, has comparative statistics available based on age. For the age group 18-29, the early vote thus far in 2010 is 4.8%, vs. 14.9% for 2008. For the age group 30-44, the early vote for 2010 is 10.4% vs. 23.5% for 2008.

 

State 2010 Early 2008 Early
Voting Voting
Colorado   195,283   1,704,280
   Dem   36.5%   37.7%
   Rep   41.8%   35.9%
         
Florida   778,408   4,377,774
   Dem   33.7%   45.6%
   Rep   52.8%   37.3%
         
Iowa   202,037   481,179
   Dem   45.9%   46.9%
   Rep   38.1%   28.9%
         
Louisiana   66,503   283,515
   Dem   46.0%   58.0%
   Rep   43.6%   28.7%
         
Maine   46,451   226,012
   Dem   37.1%   41.1%
   Rep   37.0%   27.7%
         
Nevada-Clark Cnty 121,995   391,936
   Dem   46.5%   52.0%
   Rep   37.8%   32.6%
         
Nevada-Washoe Cnty 35,262   101,604
   Dem   40.0%   47.1%
   Rep   46.2%   35.3%
         
North Carolina 332,751   2,623,838
   Dem   44.3%   51.4%
   Rep   38.2%   30.2%
         
West Virginia 48,026   166,353
   Dem   55.0%   53.0%
   Rep   35.3%   29.1%

There are a couple of conclusions we can draw from this analysis. First, Republicans are certainly more enthused than Democrats in voting this year vs. 2008. Also, two of the Democrats core voting blocks, young voters and blacks, are turning out in far fewer numbers, while older voters, those most angry over Obamacare, are turning out in much greater numbers. Those older voters also cannot be happy with no Social Security increase for the second straight year.

There is still a week to go and anything can happen, but based on these early voting numbers and the trouble that candidates like Barney Frank is in, I like our chances.

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