What’s the situation in Virginia?
Not so optimistic
Now I really like Ken Cuccinelli (why’s it so difficult to spell?). I’ve pretty much endorsed him already. But the campaign is going horribly over there. Polling pretty much shows Terry McAuliffe in a solid lead. Some of it has to do with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis starving Cuccinelli of votes obviously, but things are just not looking good at the moment. Something should be mentioned is that the Lt. Governor candidate E.W. Jackson isn’t really helping anything either. He has a history of controversial statements and his campaign isn’t going too well either from what I heard.
While there is still at this point 11 days to go (and 11 days is an eternity in politics as they say), things don’t look like they’re gonna change in Cuccinelli’s favor. I’ll hold off from concluding all is lost in VA, but I’m not optimistic about it either. It seemed there was a breath of new hope that Ron Paul’s endorsement of Cuccinelli would reign back in some of the votes lost to Sarvis, but he’s still going and has reached 10% in some polls. Now with all that said, the situation isn’t all looking bad. The GOP has a fair chance of electing Mark Obenshain as Attorney General keeping it in their fold. Also there’s the situation in the State Legislature.
GOP holds a comfortable in the House of Delegates and should keep the majority. They may lose some seats, but they should be assured to keep control. Then there’s the Senate which is 20-20 divided and the Lt. Governor always breaks the tie having the duty of presiding on a regular basis. The GOP currently has the edge with Bill Bolling breaking the tie, but that could change if the Democrat vying to replace him gets elected. But when there’s a complication, there’s also an opportunity. The Democrat candidate running is a State Senator so if he wins then he’ll have to resign from his seat. From there a special election will be held. His was previously held by a Republican for 8 years so the GOP has a window of opportunity to if nothing else preserve their control of the Legislature.
Now to those concerned about the impact this would have on the midterms, Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote a piece I believe back in September where they said off-year elections historically aren’t a good indicator of the midterms. Also it should be mentioned that while McAuliffe may very well win in VA, Chris Christie will be reelected for 2nd term in NJ so overall the parties will yield mixed results in this year’s elections. Yeah I know about Christie and I don’t much appreciate what he’s said about libertarianism, but he’s still Republican so that counts for something. While Dems maybe yipping with the victory of Terry McAuliffe like a pack of Coyotes that just killed something, they STILL hold a huge albatross going into 2014: OBAMACARE!!!! This issue will only pick up steam in the GOP’s favor (if only inspite of themselves) and will deliver them huge victories next year. Keep your chin up.