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Rundown: Control of the Senate (UPDATE)

Moves ever more in the GOP's direction

I’m gonna do something a little different from last time. I’m gonna split the races in five regions: South, Northeast, Midwest, West and Pacific Coast. Here we go.

The South

Alabama

Nothing changed from last time. Safe R

Arkansas

Mark Pryor is in hot water with Tom Cotton as his top opponent. Polls show the race to be tied or close. I ultimately don’t see him as a Senator past 2014. Lean R

Georgia

The Republican field at the moment is very crowded with 3 U.S. Reps. Dems have already united behind Michelle Nunn who’s the daughter of popular former Senator Sam Nunn. While she does have an influential name behind her, from what I hear, she’s not a great speaker. Likely R (edited)

Kentucky

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; Mitch McConnell has to go! Matt Bevin is hot on heals and I think will make it through in the primary. Considering how unpopular McConnell is in a state which Mitt Romney lost only 4 counties that’s not a good sign. Lean R

Louisiana

Mary Landrieu is in more danger than imagined. Her job approval this past April was 56%. It’s now 47% and bet ya it’ll get worse. Rep. Bill Cassidy is running on the Republican side and so is Rob Maness a former Air Force Colonel and Tea Party candidate. The last poll taken showed Landrieu leading 41-34-7 over the two of them. Put the GOP vote together and Landrieu is out of a job next year. She’s now the only elected Democrat statewide now in a state trending ever more so red. That said, there’s still a lot to be worked out so…. Tossup

Mississippi

Thad Cochran at the moment is undecided whether he wants another term, but has a primary challenger in state Sen. Chris McDaniel who’s been endorsed by FreedomWorks. I suggest you go check him out. He’s a true and solid libertyite who’ll make a great addition to the Senate Liberty Caucus. But obviously regardless can’t see the state electing a Democrat any time soon. Safe R

North Carolina

Kay Hagan is still in hot water. The top GOP candidates are state House Speaker Thom Tillis and Physician Greg Brannon (endorsee of Rand Paul). Tossup

Oklahoma

I almost feel sorry the Democrat Party here in my home state. They’ve lost pretty much all influence they’ve kept ever since statehood. Even while Oklahoma has almost consistently Republican since the 1950s, the Dems have generally done better at the state level like in the Governor’s Mansion and Legislature. Though even that’s disappeared in the last decade or so. Jim Inhofe like said previously has nothing to fear politically (condolences to him and his family for the tragic death of his son Dr. Perry Inhofe). Safe R

South Carolina

Lindsey… PLEASE JUST GO! State Sen. Lee Bright for U.S. Senate! Safe R

South Carolina (SP)

The left is always driven mad by conservative black individuals and Tim Scott is one of my favs. Safe R

Tennessee

Lamar Alexander has got a primary challenger in state Sen. Joe Carr. I’m not gonna endorse at the moment, but someone not Lamar Alexander is better than Lamar Alexander (except if it’s a Democrat). Safe R

Texas

John Cornyn is seeking reelection and while has some primary challengers should get through fine considering they’re just a few B-listers and has a giant war chest. Safe R

Virginia

While Mark Warner isn’t (yet) vulnerable, he’s starting to show signs of such thanks to the botched rollout of Obamacare and the insurance cancellations. He’s polling over 50% still so he still looks in good shape for another term. Likely D

West Virginia

Regardless who’s the GOP nominee, this seat should go Republican. West Virginia has voted increasingly Republican since 2000 and romped Mitt Romney every one of its counties last election. Likely R

While the summary of Southern races aren’t much different from when I last looked them, there’s sure to be changes in the other races. Stay tuned for the Northeast summary next time. (Note: I can’t post comments.)

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