ELECTION PROJECTION 8/15- McCain 265 Obama 264
McCain still gaining, Colorado now tied (again)
Well back again with another projection update, this one thanks to some new polls from PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA (which hasnt been polling all summer), and Quinnipiac.
Since mid-June, McCain has expanded his support in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, flipped Ohio and Virginia, forced Colorado to a tie, and has cut Obamas leads in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Obama has managed to solidify his existing leads in the rest of New England, California, New York and New Jersey, but these states have been projected as safe Democrat for months. His only cut into McCains gains have been in Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska- worrisome since these are traditionally very red states, but coming close on these 9 electoral votes pales to the 31 currently trending back towards McCain.
If Colorado holds its current Republican trend (Rasmussen has it +1 McCain, Quinnipiac +2), it can tip the scale over to a 274-264 lead for McCain.Of course, with the Democratic National Convention in Denver, it could swing back to Barack (or backfire and go further into McCains). Have to wait and see.
Public Policy Polling should be releasing a new Ohio poll shortly (probably still showing an Obama lead but probably down from his +8 in July).
The one worrisome area for McCain is the traditionally Red west and Alaska- recent polling out of Alaska, North Dakota and Montana leave all three (doubtful to me, but hey, its what the polls say) within the margin of error for McCain.States that will probably be polled in the coming week: New Mexico (well overdue)North CarolinaVirginiaOhio (probably PPP as reported earlier)New Hampshire (perhaps Rasmussen or UNH)FloridaPennsylvaniaIowa