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2/15 US Senate Election Projection- Dem 51 GOP 49 *GOP GAIN 1 since last projection*

ELECTION PROJECTION 2/15 US SENATE

Another one bites the dust. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement in a state that voted 6 points more Republican than the national average and with a history (until 2008) of being safely Republican gives the GOP another pickup there. All of the data since my last projection, besides one poll out of Nevada giving Harry Reid at least a small gain in his numbers, shows the tide is strongly Republican and now makes our path to getting to 51 votes a little easier.

Perhaps the RNC needs to make some serious pushes to Thompson, Rossi, and Pataki…

Likelihood of flipping to GOP:

ND 99%

DE 99%

AR 90%

NV 90%

IN  80% (to be raised when polling data confirms the obvious)

PA 75%

CO 70%

IL   60% –LIKELY SCENARIO GOP 49 DEM 49 IND(D) 2

CA 35%

NY(S) 25% (upped to 60% if Pataki throws in)

WI 15 % (upped to 60% if Thompson throws in)

WA 15% (upped to 50% if Rossi throws in)

CT 10%

NY 5%

VT, OR, MD, HI <1%

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