Sorry for my absence the last few weeks, I have been busy sketching and painting new works mocking Jerry Brown. Anyway, onto the projection:
I went back the last two weeks roughly and pulled the available state polling and updated the previous projection. The most noticeable changes are the movement of Pennsylvania slightly back to a tie (Toomey leads Specter by a few points as opposed to 7-8 about a month ago), Missouri back to a small GOP hold... and most importantly the movement of California to a TIE. Fiorina and Campbell are within one point deficits and leads to Boxer...the very "SENATOR!" Boxer who now has a 40% approval rating, according to the LA Times. If the trend out here holds, with Whitman beating Brown and Boxer remaining vulnerable, we could be looking at a 50-50 split in the US Senate, broken of course by VP Biden if it came to that, but still very confounding to the Democrats as opposed to the freewheeling of a supermajority they enjoyed just a year ago.
SOMEONE tell Thompson to just jump in in Wisconsin, please:? He currently crushes Feingold in the college poll, leads slightly in older Rasmussen polls, and if you believe DKos' ObamaYouth-2008 voter turnout model, faces a deficit but a slighter one than other Republicans there.
The same goes for Rossi and Pataki.
Current likelihood of flip to GOP now:
1) North Dakota 99%
1) Delaware 99%
3) Nevada 90%
3) Indiana 90%
3) Arkansas 90%
6) Pennsylvania 75%
7) Colorado 66%
7) Illinois 66%
9) California 50% (50 GOP VOTES -TIE IN SENATE)
10) Wisconsin 25% (jumps to 75% with Thompson) (51 GOP Vote Sen Majority)
11) New York 15% (jumps to 66% with Pataki) (52 GOP Vote Sen Majority)
12) Washington 10% (jumps to 50% with Rossi) (53 GOP Vote Sen Majority)
13) Connecticut 5% (54 GOP Vote Sen Majority)
VT, HI, OR, MD unlikely to flip beyond a fraction of 1%