The latest Gallup poll has Obama narrowly beating Ron Paul by 47 to 45, which is well within the poll's margin of error ( +/- 4%). Obama loses to Romney, 46 to 48. He ties with Rick Perry 47 to 47. Bachmann does the worse against Obama losing 48 to 44. Given the margin of error, there is virtually no difference between any of the Republican candidates, seriously undermining Romney's argument of "electability". Obama's range was 48 - 46% of the vote. For the Republican candidates the range was 48 - 44%.
Paul polls 10% lower than either Romney or Perry among Republican voters. Obama polls 5% higher among Republican voters. In fact, if Republican voters would support Ron Paul, he would clearly win over Obama. Paul does just as well as Romney and Perry among both independents and Democrats. Even without overwhelming Republican support, Given the historical trend that undecideds break 2 to 1 against the incumbent, Obama would likely lose narrowly to Ron Paul.
The results are based on a survey of registered voters.