First Monday in August
?There?s someth?n happenin? here, What it is ain?t exactly clear?
Words to an old song by Buffalo Springfield to be sure. But these words can also be applied to politics in the US right now.
This is to be a Democratic year. Because of George Bush they are to sweep into power and next January take control of the whole of the government. But…
Why doesn’t it ‘feel’ like that?
‘Oh tsquare you are just making this all up, there isn’t anything going on!’
Well I MIGHT be over stating things a bit. But others are starting to be concerned for the Democrats as well…
No rabid rightwingers these two…
During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41% (see history from January 2004 to present).
While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.
The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.
Not a big thing to be sure.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
What is happening? Truly I don’t know… but I can point to a couple of things.
Time – This is going to be a very time compressed election. During the Olympics both Campaigns will ‘shut down’ as there will be a lack of press… then the DEM convention, then the GOP convention then Labor Day and the general election is in full swing. Therefore there will not be a lot of time for voters to ‘move’
Issues – The one thing on voters minds is gas… and oil. And now seemingly why Democrats are not allowing us to get more. So much so that Obama has changed his position on new drilling. Democrats seem to be running out of issues… at least those that lots of moderates care about. New drilling is an issue that Congressional Democrats ‘gave’ to the GOP by not allowing a vote on the House floor, and going n their August recess All this leading to:
The election will be all about Obama…
True… not original thought on my part, many have said this before. But, now it would seem that McCain and his people know it and are using it.
Obama to win must overcome ‘resistance’ to him as President. All those voters and are far left, lifelong Democrats, new voters brought in because of Obama, are already factored into the polling numbers. To win Obama must ‘turn’ swing voters that in years past voted GOP in Presidential elections. He must do this while not alienating his base, while becoming “less risky” a choice. And, so it would seem, w/o a huge issue at his back. And in a short period of time.
McCain seen by moderates as the less risky of the two, need only do what he (finally) has been doing: make it about Obama’s ability to lead, and doing so to make Obama appear even more risky. This last two weeks McCain has managed to do just that WHILE not looking too mean about it… using humor. This is doing two things for McCain: it’s keeping Obama off message and off balance… thinking on his feet is not a strong skill of Obama’s. And it’s forcing Obama to make mistakes… the ‘dollar bill’ remark among them.
IF… if McCain can keep this up… and keep it close… do well in the debates, if in the middle of October it’s still this close the late breaking undecideds SHOULD break to McCain… giving him the victory, narrowly.
This is why Democrats are going into August worried…