If you haven't noticed, now that Hosni Mubarak has officially stepped down, the Egyptian Revolution has actually taken on an aspect of being popular. The fellahin, the Egypt Street, have joined rent-a-mobs and left wing students to celebrate Mubarak's departure. And the military has stepped in (Thank God), and called for a new constitution and elections in six months.
This popular exultation will soon fade into uncertainly as to what those next six months will bring, since almost no one has worked there for nearly three weeks and most everything has been closed. They are nearing being broke, with shortages everywhere. The legitimate grievances the Egyptian people had against the government, alongside skyrocketing world food prices thanks to US ethanol policy and (some say) our monetary policy, will be no better tomorrow now that Mubarak has gone. The new shine on their shoes will be soon be gone.
For many good reasons the new military caretaker government wants people to return to work and to a state of normalcy. But that was never the plan when this revolution began three weeks ago. One cannot logically assume that a leftist coalition of students and labor and the Muslim Brotherhood will simply walk away and turn the stage over to genuine forces of democracy in Egypt. Having succeeded in bringing about only half their grand plan in Act I, that of bringing down Mubarak, they will have to raise the curtain on Acts II and III in order to insinuate themselves into Egypt's future government. Remember, Egypt was always the jewel in the crown in not only Islamist ambitions for the destruction of Israel and US influence in the Middle East, but for Islamist totalitarian control, a la Iran, of the entire region.
So continued organized chaos such as we now see on the streets of Cairo will probably be a new norm.
A little background
In earlier pieces here and here I stated my position; it would be better for the military to step in rather than allow a Left-Labor-Muslim Brotherhood take the reins of government with the shill, and friend of Barack, el Baradei as the head of government. That is still not out of the question, only now they will have to reach that goal through other, more "democratic" means, as the next six months portend. This has been planned for. They have to hijack these next months of new-nation building.
Early on, in week one, we laid out here (thanks to LaborUnionReport, cited in my posts above, and now cited by Glenn Beck, among others) a scenario whereby leftist American labor unions, the leftist World Youth Alliance, with the help of Google, Twitter, and other corporate fellow travelers (or greedy suckers, take your pick) began setting up this "freedom in the streets" scenario two years ago. The US and British media, either simpatico or useful idiots (doesn't matter) quickly adopted the meme that what they were witnessing was a true grass roots popular revolt against an authoritarian regime.
With the willing help of the media the cards are set out nicely on the table for the coming events to unfold as a rising expression of popular democracy in Egypt, even as it is not, and never was planned to be. It will be a formulaic play.
We called it right, the military was and is the only near term solution, buying what seems approximately six months to keep the Communists and/or Muslim Brotherhood out of power. End of Act I.
So, exit Muslim Brotherhood, stage right, at the end of Act I to re-emerge in Act III. Exit also Berkeleyite leftist students, stage right, to re-emerge at the end of Act II, around election time to once again fill the streets, especially if the new elections appear not to be going so well. Then, Stage left, right now, enter the Communist world workers alliance, to keep the streets filled, only this time with angry state and municipal workers, to keep the world press on the job, Cairo on the front page, and to lay the groundwork, below the fold, for what labor unions do best in the United States...to organize thuggery, intimidate true freedom parties as they will emerge in the coming weeks, and steal elections, as they have done in the US for many years.
We are now seeing the curtain rise on Act II; the labor unions, no doubt with financial, technical, and boots on the ground support from American and the UK labor. This is their big scene on stage. The unions keep the fires lit...and keep the media attention away from other scenes about to be played out.
But you see, there really were genuine democracy groups in Egypt. So, the new military government is probably confronted with several dilemmas, for they witnessed Mubarak purge these groups for years, yet now they must embrace them..genuinely...if they, and Egypt are to survive. They have known about them for years. But how do they discern between the genuine and the not-so-genuine democracy movements? The military will likely play favorites, (sorry, folks, this is how it is done) but unlike Mubarak's promises 30 years ago, they must insure that the new Constitution grants to the people some genuine "freedom" reforms, and yes, reforms that can be capitalized on, and grown in coming years to make the people feel even more secure. These reforms must be real.
This will be the hard part for the military, understanding this. Certain things that occurred under Mubarak must not be allowed to occur again. (And yes, these reforms will not comport with Western understandings, but will reflect the realities of a Muslim society, even as it is generations in advance of many middle Eastern Muslim societies.) It is the Egyptians who must define "reform" and "freedom" here, not American conservatives...or leftist Berkeley-ites.
And you must know that the American media will miss all these things, if no other reason, professional vanity, for they have hung their hat on the false "liberty-loving" sensibilities of a bunch of radical leftist college kids and communist labor organizations. They can't back away now. Even FoxNews.
What is to be Done
So in the end, however they wish to shape the "new Egypt" that will emerge in a few months, they have a few short weeks to 1) begin understanding the ways of American/British labor cadres what will lend support to Egyptian Labor, with money and training, and learn ways to interdict them, and 2) to begin to educate and train true freedom movements in Egypt to combat the ways in which their movement will be co-opted by the American-trained labor unions, and ultimately, the Muslim Brotherhood, who will emerge in Act III.
This is a tall order. This is also out of our hands, well, sort of as we do have some assets here to help. But just pray that the seeds of democracy will prevail in Egypt, even according to how an ordinary Egyptian might see it...for even the tiniest of seeds can survive and germinate if given a little light. Under the cold blight of Marxism and the Muslim Brotherhood, those seeds will surely die, not to see light again for generations.
So it is written. Insha'Allah.