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Recession Red Flag: Excess of Durable Goods Inventory over New Orders Nears All-Time High

Earlier this month the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for July 2012 showed that inventory stockpiles once again rose in July.

The final revised numbers for July now show that the excess of nondefense inventory (excluding aircraft) over new orders hit its second highest total ever recorded at $59.8 Billion, surpassing the peak seen during the recession following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and quickly approaching the peak of $60.2 Billion seen in the aftermath of the collapse of the housing bubble and the financial melt-down leading to the most recent recession:

In addition to declining labor force participation and stagnant true unemployment, as well as GDP growth that has fallen well below 2%, this trend is yet another red flag that the U.S. economy remains at serious risk of falling into a “double-dip” recession.

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