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Data Analysis: Romney Leads Among Independents by 5.5%, Leads Nationally by 2%

Washington Dispatch Poll of Polls for October 22, 2012:  Romney Up by 2% Nationally

Mitt Romney (48.2%) leads Barack Obama (46.1%) by 2.1% nationally heading into their third and final debate this evening.  This represents the highest level of support for Mr. Romney thus far, as well as his largest margin over the incumbent.

Links to Individual Polls:

Rasmussen

Public Policy Polling (PPP)

Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP

Gravis Marketing

GWU/Politico/BattleGround

American Research Group (ARG)

ABC News/Washington Post

 

Methodology:

Rather than simply averaging the overall result of major national polls pitting President Obama against Mitt Romney (as is done on sites like Real Clear Politics), The Washington Dispatch digs into the cross-tabs of data behind major national polls (those that freely publish the necessary data breaking down responses by party identification), and averages each candidates’ share of the vote among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.  Then, these shares are applied to the actual turnout by party identification (as measured by CNN’s comprehensive exit polling of between 13,000 and 18,000 respondents for the 200420062008, and 2010 elections) for the past four national elections. To calculate poll numbers for The Washington Dispatch’s official head-to-head match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, each candidates’ average share of the vote by party affiliation is applied to the average turnout by party affiliation over the past four national elections.

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