PA

Modest.  Republicans Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey should both cruise to solid victories for Governor and Senate.

PA 3, PA 4, PA 6, PA 7, PA 8, PA 10, PA 11, PA 12, PA 15 & PA 17

This will be a bad year for Democrats in PA.  The two Republican targets – Gerlach and Dent – will both win re-election by impressive margins, as this is just the wrong year for the strong Democrats challenging them.  Meanwhile, the GOP is likely to pick up PA 3, PA 7, and PA 11, and still has credible chances in the remaining target districts.  However, a safe bet in this state would be a three seat pickup for the Republicans.

+3

RI

None.  Lincoln Chafee, Republican turned Independent should win a three party race for Governor.

RI 1

Republican Jon Loughlin would have made a good contrast against the laughable incumbent Democrat Patrick Kennedy, but Loughlin should fall short against one of the other Democrats. 

0

SC

Huge.  Republicans Nikki Haley and Jim DeMint will win by strong margins.

SC 5

It is likely that only two incumbents will win re-election in the SC delegation – Republican Joe Wilson and Democrat Jim Clyburn.  The other incumbent still on the ballot, Democrat John Spratt, seems likely to lose to Republican state Senator Mike Mulvaney, who has released an internal poll showing him down only two points down in what should be a solid Republican district.

+1

SD

Huge.  The GOP will hold the Governor’s office, and Republican Senator John Thune isn’t even opposed by a Democrat.

SD At- Large

Democrat incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin fell behind Republican state Representative Kristi Noem after the SD primaries.  Sandlin and her allies have been spending heavily to regain her edge, but when the battle is finally joined she will probably come up short in the final count in this environment in this Republican leaning state.

+1

TN

Huge.  Any Republican will pick up the Governorship by a large margin this year.

TN 4, TN 6 & TN 8

Right now, the Republicans are almost guaranteed to pick up the vacant TN 6, and they probably have at least a fifty-fifty chance at TN 8.  TN 4, where Democrat Lincoln Davis is seeking re-election also bears watching, although it should still be considered likely Democrat at this point.

+1

TX

None.  In any other year, GOP Governor Rick Perry would be a likely loser in seeking his third full term.  However, thanks to the current environment he still has about a fifty-fifty chance of winning another term.

TX 17 & TX 23

Longtime incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards is nip-and-tuck with Republican Bill Flores in a district that should have become Republican a longtime ago.  This year, it likely will.  Also, the GOP candidate has a decent chance of ousting unimpressive Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in the other competitive district, TX 23.  If I were a betting man, I would put money on both Republicans, but the safe bet is just Flores.

+1

VA

None.  There are no statewide races.

VA 2, VA 5, VA 9 & VA 11

Survey USA recently released a poll with state Senator Bob Hurt up 58% to 35% over Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello, who barely beat a long term Republican two years ago by a few hundred votes.  Perriello will have enough money to get his message out, but it is unlikely to make up a gap like this.  Of the three remaining targeted districts, all three Democrats are individually favored.  However, I think it likely that one other seat will go Republican, most likely Democrat Glenn Nye’s.

+2

WA

None.  Republican Dino Rossi has a good chance to oust Democrat Patty Murray, but even if he does, it will be a narrow victory.

WA 2, WA 3 & WA 8

The open seat in WA 3 is almost too close to call.  However, with any sort of Republican wave, state Representative Jaime Herrera – the favorite on the Republican side – would have to be considered a likely winner, probably by a slim margin.  In this environment Republican Dave Reichert should easily win re-election.  However, I still have to give the edge to Democrat Rick Larsen.

+1

WV

None.  Assuming the Republicans run a credible candidate, the special election for the Senate will be close.

WV 1 & WV 2

In a state and district trending more and more Republican, WV 1 is likely to go Republican, even though the Democrats managed to make things harder by ousting the corrupt incumbent.  Meanwhile, Democrat incumbent Rahall is the favorite in WV 3, although an upset is certainly possible.

+1

WI

None.  Both the Governor’s race and the Senate race are likely to be extremely close.

WI 3, WI 7 & WI 8

In this year, Republicans Sean Duffy – running as the outsider – should win the open WI 7, which is normally a competitive district.  Duffy has prior political experience, is pretty well known, and has raised a lot of money.   Republicans have a good candidate in WI 3, and should be competitive in the normally Republican leaning WI 8, but right now the incumbent Dems still are favored.

+1

IA

Modest.  Former Republican Governor Terry Branstad will win a record fifth term in the Governor’s office, and Republican Senator Grassley will breeze to a record sixth term.

IA 3

Democrat Boswell has a history of close elections; he barely won in 2006 during a great Democrat year.  He is also old, and looks his age, is in a Republican leaning district, and is going up against a youngish, but politically experienced, state Senator –Brad Zaun.  A recent poll put Zaun ahead of the incumbent.  Boswell should lose this year.   

+1

KS

Huge.  Republican Senator Brownback, the nicest man in the U.S. Senate, is going to waltz into the Governor’s mansion, while the winner of the Republican primary will fill his seat – but not replace him – in the Senate.

KS 3 & KS 4

Kansas used to be a competitive state when it came to House races, but the 2010 results won’t show it.  The GOP will sweep the House delegation, holding two of their own open seats and picking up the quasi-open seat of Democrat Dennis Moore, whose wife is running for his open seat.  This is both too cute and too stupid by half.

+1

KY

Modest.  Rand Paul will win a term in the U.S. Senate – this year and this state is too Republican for even him to blow it.  He does seems like a one term wonder, though.

KY 3 & KY 6

Although KY 3 has been talked up as a possible pickup, as the one seat that leans Democrat in national elections, John Yarmuth has to be considered a strong favorite.  However, Republican Andy Barr has impressed observers with his candidacy in the more Republican leaning KY 6 against Democrat incumbent Ben Chandler.  Still, Chandler should squeak by in any baseline count.

0

LA

None.  Republican Senator Vitter will easily win a second term because his state is so conservative and so anti-Obama.

LA 2 & LA 3

In LA, the GOP will trade the 2^nd District for the 3^rd.  Representative Cao has done what he could to hold the 2^nd, but unless some independents run strong races, any Democrat should send him packing.  Meanwhile, Melancon’s district will revert to the GOP.

0

MD

Mixed.  Although Dem Senator Mikulski will coast to re-election, the governor’s race will be very competitive and former Governor Ehrlich has a good chance of winning.

MD 1

In MD 1, one of only two districts that the GOP dominates in this state, Freshman Democrat Frank Kravitol is running on borrowed time.  Republican Andy Harris – barring a primary upset – should take advantage of the better year and the huge Ehrlich coattails (in that district) to reverse his narrow loss in ’08.

+1

MA

Modest.  The GOP’s Charlie Baker should win a plurality victory over Obama 1.0, otherwise known as Deval Patrick, whose tenure as Governor has been as successful as that of Jon Corzine.

MA 10

The open MA 10 is the one district where non-Democrats (mostly independents) control the Congressional outcome; Senator Brown won 60% here.  In this year, the GOP has a real chance to win this race, although the conservative guess would be that the Democrats narrowly hold on.

0

MI

Big.  MI has been mismanaged to a colossal scale by the Democrats, who in 2010 will pay the price by losing the Governorship in a landslide.

MI 1, MI 7 & MI 9

The Republican nominee should win the seat of retiring Bart Stupak, which leans Republican.  Also, former Congressman Walberg is likely to win back his former district, i.e., the 7^th, which only narrowly voted him out in a horrible Republican year.  Republicans also have a decent chance to oust Democrat Gary Peters, although Peters is still favored.

+2

MN

None.  The open governorship should narrowly stay with the Republicans if the Democrats choose politically unimpressive former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton as their candidate.

MN 1, & MN 6

Fresh off their theft of a U.S. Senate seat in 2008, the Dems have been talking tough about picking up MN 6.  However, if they couldn’t beat (or cheat) Bachmann in 2008, they won’t do it in 2010.  Meanwhile, the GOP is talking up its challenger to Tim Walz, but Walz still must be favored. 

0

MS

None.  There are no statewide races this year.

MS 1 & MS 4

In this environment, state Senator Alan Nunnelee seems likely to beat freshman (plus) Democrat Travis Childers in a district that is heavily conservative and usually Republican.  The GOP also has an outside chance – but still just a chance – to pick up the 4^th District, where Gene Taylor holds what should be a solid Republican seat.

+1

MO

Modest.  Polling shows that in the battle of the dynasties, Republican Roy Blunt has the edge over Democrat Robin Carnahan.

MO 3 & MO 4

Although his sister is likely to go down this year, Congressman Carnahan will likely survive in a still solid Democrat district, though his margin will certainly go down.  Also, long time Congressman Skelton should be regarded as the favorite, even though his district is heavily conservative.

0

NE

Huge.  The Democrats may be unable to find an opponent for Gov. Heineman. 

NE 2

In a normal year, Republican Congressman Lee Terry, whose district narrowly went for Obama, would have a race on his hands.  However, in this environment he is safe.

0

NV

Modest.  Brian Sandoval will hammer Rory Reid by at least ten points for the open Governorship and Majority Leader Reid won’t break 45% in his losing race for re-election to the Senate.

NV 3

In 2008, Dem Dina Titus ousted an incumbent with a plurality of the vote.  The district is very evenly divided, and all polling has shown that she and Republican Joe Heck are neck and neck, usually with Heck having a slight edge.  The conservative pick – Joe Heck by a hair.

+1

NH

Mixed.  Democrat Governor Jon Lynch should win re-election by a solid but-not- spectacular margin while the GOP candidate should win the open seat in the U.S. Senate.

NH 1 & NH 2

Things are looking very bad for Democrats in NH.  Carol Shea-Porter, the beneficiary of two Democrat waves, hasn’t polled very well against any Republican.  She will finally be ousted in this Republican wave in the more Republican district in the state.  In the open Democrat leaning 2^nd District, former Republican Charlie Bass looks like a winner this year.  The Dems will have a brutal primary, while Bass should more easily beat Jennifer Horn and then ride the wave back into the House.

+2

NJ

None.  There are no statewide races this year.

NJ 3 & NJ 12

Republicans won big here in 2009, but they don’t seem likely to duplicate this result in 2010.  Freshman Democrat Jon Adler has raised tons of money, and cast enough votes to fashion himself as a more independent Democrat.  He also benefits by running against a former football player, who will be hindered by his “dumb jock” image.  Expect Adler to narrowly win.  Longtime incumbent Democrat Holt might also be strongly challenged, although as of yet there has been no real evidence that he is in any particular danger. 

 0

NM

Modest.  In a wave year for the GOP, Susana Martinez should have a narrow edge in the Governor’s race.

NM 1 & NM 2

In 2008, the Dems picked up two longtime seats here, and this year the GOP is fighting to regain them.  The 2^nd seems more likely to return, as it narrowly went for McCain and the former three term incumbent, Steve Pearce, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate, is challenging his replacement, freshman Harry Teague.  Democrat Teague is also facing the twin problems of business problems and the fact that Pearce is likely to outspend him.  In the 1^st, Freshman Dem Martin Heinrich seems to be in a stronger position over Republican Jon Barela with a district that is far more Democrat, although a recent Survey USA poll had Heinrich narrowly behind.

+1

NY

None.  The GOP is likely to lose badly for Governor and for one Senate seat, and only has an outside chance of picking up the other Senate seat (Clinton’s).

NY 1, NY 13, NY 19, NY 20, NY 23, NY 24 & NY 29

There are lots of potential targets in this state where only two of 29 House seats are held by Republicans, but unfortunately the GOP is unlikely to capitalize on them (see below).  The GOP seems likely to pick up the open NY 29 of Democrat “Tickle Me” Massa, and probably will pick up one more, most likely NY 24, where they have a strong candidate who did very well in 2008, or possibly NY 1, NY 19, or NY 23.

+2

NC

None.  Republican Senator Burr should win a second term, but only because of the environment, as he has done little to establish himself politically. 

NC 2, NC 7, NC 8 & NC 11

Thanks to his on-camera outburst, Democrat Bobby Etheridge is now in a competitive race with his originally little known opponent, Renee Elmers.  None of the other districts are safe for the Democrats, although the individual races haven’t yet taken shape.  It seems likely though that at least one district will fall to the GOP, most likely NC 2 or NC 8.

+1

ND

Huge.  Republican Governor John Hoeven will win a landslide Senate victory for retiring Senator Byron Dorgan’s seat.

ND At- Large

Republican Rick Berg has led Democrat Congressman Earl Pomeroy for several months now in Rasmussen polls.  Berg has raised a decent amount of money.  ND is strongly anti-Obama.  Pomeroy should go down this year.

+1

OH

Modest.  Both former Republican Congressmen Kasich and Portman should be considered the favorites respectively, for Governor and Senator.

OH 1, OH 12, OH 13, OH 15, OH 16 & OH 18

Ohio has a large amount of races that are considered truly competitive.  At this point, two seem very likely to be turnovers. Former Republican Congressman Steve Chabot has a solid polling edge and monetary edge over the man who defeated him two years ago, freshman Democrat Steve Driehaus, while Steve Stivers has a shocking monetary edge over the woman who beat him, Mary Jo Kilroy.  Of the remaining four seats, only one is currently held by Republicans, and that is the safest of the four. 

+2

OR

None.  Republican Chris Dudley currently has a narrow edge for Governor, while Democrat Senator Ron Wyden still has a solid edge.

OR 4 & OR 5

Republicans missed an opportunity to oust Democrat DeFazio in OR 4 when their favored candidate self-destructed, but they are still in the hunt against Democrat Kurt Schrader in OR 5.  Republican state Representative Scott Bruun is a solid candidate running in a competitive district, but a baseline prediction would have to still give the nod to freshman Schrader.

0

Coattails?

GOP Targets

Conservative Prediction

GOP Gain

AL

Modest.  Senior Republican Senator Shelby will coast to a new term, and the winner of the Republican gubernatorial should win solidly over big liberal Ron Sparks.

AL 2 & AL 5

Freshman Bob Bright is doing everything right: voting against the Democrats on the big issues, raising money, and working his district hard.  His opponent, Martha Robey has done a poor job raising money and was forced into a primary runoff with a little known opponent.  In any conservative evaluation, Bright would have to be considered a likely candidate to squeak to re-election.  However, the open seat of Dem turned Republican Griffith should stay with the GOP.  The GOP almost won this seat two years ago in terrible circumstances; they also almost beat an entrenched incumbent in 1994.  Thus, GOPer Mo Brooks, who beat Griffith in the primary, should have little problem dispatching his no name Democrat opponent in this environment.

+1

AZ

Big.  Appointed Republican Gov. Brewer jumped on the anti-illegal immigrant bandwagon, which should propel her into the Governor’s mansion by a solid margin.  Also, after dispatching a primary challenger, Sen. John McCain will cruise to another term.

AZ 1, AZ 5, & AZ 8

With the primary not until August 24, there are multiple GOPers running in competitive primaries for the right to oppose incumbent Democrats Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords.  Thus, it is hard to prognosticate, but it seems safe to conservatively guesstimate that the Republicans will pick up at least one of these seats.     

+1

AR

Mixed.  Dem Gov. Beebe should win solidly, but Republican Rep. Boozeman will win even bigger in the Senate race. 

AR 1 & AR 2

On a federal level, AR is looking like a disaster area for the Democrats.  Republican Tim Griffin released a poll showing him up big in the open AR 2; another internal Republican poll has Rick Crawford involved in a tossup in AR 1.  A conservative guess is that Griffin will win but Crawford will come just short.  Had the GOP produced a stronger candidate in AR 4 they might have had a chance there too. 

+1

CA

None.  Both the Governor’s race and Senate race should be close.

CA 3, CA 11, CA 45 & CA 47

Both Dems and GOPers claim multiple seats are at stake in the largest state of the nation.  The Dems point to the numerous districts held by Republicans that Obama carried; the Republicans point to the drought endangered Dem incumbents, McNerney’s formerly Republican district, and Assemblyman Van Tran’s high profile challenge to Democrat Rep. Loretta Sanchez.  The conservative assumption, however, is that no turnovers will occur.  

0

CO

None.  Both the Governor’s race and Senate race should be close, with the GOPers narrowly favored.

CO 3, CO 4 & CO 7

CO 4 Democrat Betsy Markey is dead meat after voting for the health care boondoggle.  Dems Sanchez and Perlmutter still have to be considered the slim favorites in any conservative estimate.

+1

CT

None.  The open Governor’s race will likely be close.  The open Senate seat is more solidly Democrat, although you can never totally rule out the chances of a multimillionaire. 

CT 4 & CT 5

Democrat Himes has raised a ton of money to defend the seat he won in 2008.  The Republicans have a good candidate to oppose him, but I haven’t yet seen any indication that Himes will be beaten in a district that Obama carried with 60%.  Democrat Murphy is also favored at this point.

0

DE

None.  Republican Rep. Castle will easily win the open Senate seat, but his popularity is largely personal.

DE At- Large

Democrat former Lt. Gov. John Carney starts off with a big edge over either Republican candidate, although both GOPers will have the resources to make it a race.  However, in a state where Obama won over 60%, and considering Carney’s prior statewide victories, Carney seems the solid favorite for this open seat.

-1

FL

None.  Both the open Senate and Governors races are not fully formed, and likely to be close.

FL 2, FL 8, FL 22, FL 24 & FL 25

Apparently, Dem Alan Grayson is not aware that making an a#s of himself regularly on national television is not a good way to win re-election to a public office.  He won’t, regardless of who his challenger is.  Democrats Boyd and Kosmas are also in big trouble.  Only Democrat Klein has the edge in the competitive Dem held seats.  The open Republican seat of Mario Diaz Balart would be competitive in a more normal year, but this year is likely to stay with the Republicans.  Overall, a conservative guess is that the GOP will win Grayson’s seat and at least one other seat.

+2

GA

Modest.  Republican Senator Isakson will coast to a new term, and the winner of the Republican gubernatorial should win solidly over former Governor Barnes.  (What are the Dems thinking with this retread?)

GA 8 & GA 12

Two Dem seats are always competitive, and the Republican opposing Democrat Jim Marshall has made some waves with his fundraising prowess.  However, considering this is a baseline prediction, both Marshall and Democrat John Barrow should be considered the favorites here.

0

HI

None.  Senator Inouye will win big, and if the GOP gubernatorial candidate is able to win an upset, it will only be a narrow victory.

HI 1

Incumbent Republican Charles Djou is an excellent candidate, but he still only captured 40% in a divided special election.  This race illustrates the difference between my baseline prediction and what I personally would predict if money were on the line – no way can Djou be the baseline choice, but I would still put money on him to win in an upset. 

-1

ID

Modest.  Republican Senator Crapo will win huge, although Republican Governor Otter may have some problems.

ID 1

Like Bobby Bright, Democrat Walt Minnick is doing everything right to win re-election.  But this isn’t Alabama; Idaho is even more Republican.  In this environment, as long as state Rep. Labrador can avoid major political gaffes/ foolishness of the like that afflicted former Congressman Sali, the Republican will win. 

+1

IL

Modest.  The GOP should pick up both the open Senate and Governor’s offices, although neither by big margins. 

IL 10, IL 11, IL 14 & IL 17

The perfect storm of corruption and incompetence is hitting Illinois.  Incumbent Freshmen Dems Halvorson and Foster both represent traditionally Republican districts and are facing strong opponents who seem to be competitive in the internal polls that have been released.  In Kirk’s district, Seals is trying for the third time to pick up this seat for the Democrats.   Democrat Phil Hare has shown some weakness too, but is still favored.  A safe bet would be that the GOP wins one of the first three races; my guess would be that Adam Kinzinger is the most likely victor. 

0

IN

Modest.  The GOP is lucky this is a Republican wave year– former Senator Coats will win back his seat in a solid but not overwhelming victory.

IN 2, IN 8, & IN 9

If you want to get an early flavor of how the night is going for the GOP, look to Indiana, where on a great night they could totally reverse the results of 2006 and pick up three seats.  If this happens, than the GOP will almost certainly pick up the House.  However, my conservative guess is a two seat pickup where they grab the open IN 8 and oust the foolishly imperious (“this is my town hall”) Baron Hill.

+2