new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) “not necessarily in danger of losing reelection next year, but certainly not unbeatable either.”

Key finding: “Just 45% of voters in the state approve of her job performance, with 40% dissenting… Lincoln is struggling with independent voters in the state, 50% of whom say they disapprove of her work compared to only 31% approving.”

However, in hypothetical contests with former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) and state senator Gilbert Baker (R), Lincoln beats both 46% to 38% and 48% to 37% respectively.

Huckabee could beat her!  I wish he would help the party like he always says he is and make the plunge.  Is Huckabee still popular in Ar?

NY 20 Special Election (D)

In addition to the RNC poll we mentioned earlier that shows Jim Tedisco (R) leading Scott Murphy (D) by three points in the NY-20 special election next week, Political Wire now has confirmation that a NRCC poll actually shows Murphy leading by two points.

Tedisco’s own internal polling shows him leading by just one point.

Update: According to Politico, the DNC “is mulling spending significantly more money on the race.”

Attorney General Cuomo (D) announced he will not challenge Paterson in a primary and will instead run for re-election to AG

Paging Rudy!

AR Lincoln (D)

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) “not necessarily in danger of losing reelection next year, but certainly not unbeatable either.”

Key finding: “Just 45% of voters in the state approve of her job performance, with 40% dissenting… Lincoln is struggling with independent voters in the state, 50% of whom say they disapprove of her work compared to only 31% approving.”

However, in hypothetical contests with former US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) and state senator Gilbert Baker (R), Lincoln beats both 46% to 38% and 48% to 37% respectively.

Huckabee could beat her!

CA Boxer (D)

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is putting to rest rumors that he might seek another elective office after his term ends in January 2011.

Schwarzenegger says he’s not running for any seat, which made it easier for him to broker a difficult political compromise this year over how to solve California’s $42 billion budget shortfall.

FL Open Seat Martinez (R)

Gov Crist is still undecided about a run

Its time that we here at RedState start encouraging some top challengers to many of these winnable races. Its early but we need top challengers out to start collecting the money they are going to need and hopefully we can avoid bitter primaries.

NH Open Hodes Seat

NH Porter

NY McHahon

NY Hall

NY Arcuri

NY Massa

CT Courtney

CT Himes

CT Murphy

PA Dahlkemper

PA Altimire

PA Sestak

PA Murphy

PA Carney

PA Holden

NJ Adler

MD Kratovil

VA Nye

VA Perriello

VA Connolly

NC Shuler

NC Kissell

GA Marshall

GA Barrow

AL Bright

AL Griffith

MS Childers

FL Grayson

FL Kosmas

FL Klein

Please provide any info on these races and lets start getting some top challengers.

PA Open Gov Seat (D)

Pennsylvania’s attorney general is taking an important step toward running for governor in 2010. 

Republican and Allegheny County native Tom Corbett filed paperwork Monday with the state after setting up an exploratory committee called Tom Corbett for Governor. 

He launched a Web site as well. 

Corbett is serving a second term as attorney general after winning re-election in November

NH Open Senate Seat (R)

New Hampshire Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter says she will not run for U.S. Senate next year. Shea-Porter, a Democrat in her second term, had considered running for the seat now held by Republican Sen. Judd Gregg, who isn’t seeking re-election

KY Bunning (R)

Congressman Chandler (D) is still considering a run for Senate Seat.

NV Gibbons (R)

Republican former state Sen. Joe Heck is running for governor in 2010, he has announced.

In seeking the Republican nomination, Heck will be up against incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons, who has said he plans to run for reelection despite being extremely unpopular. North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon also is seeking the Republican nomination.

Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons said Sunday that he plans to run against Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd.

Simmons said he made the decision to join the race after talking with relatives.

“The family had a long meeting today and was unanimous that I run,” he said in an e-mail message to The Associated Press. “So I am running.”

In a hypothetical 2010 matchup, a recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Simmons with 43 percent of the vote and Dodd with 42 percent.

Simmons narrowly lost to Democrat Joe Courtney in 2006 in a race to represent the 2nd Congressional District.

With less than three weeks until the NY-20 special election, Scott Murphy (D) has cut James Tedisco’s 12 point lead to just 4 points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll. 

Tedisco now leads the race 45% to 41%. 

Key factor: “While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy.”

A Democratic poll yesterday also showed the race tightening.

We need to win this race.  What gives?

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Delaware finds that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) would lead Attorney General Beau Biden (D), 44% to 46%, in a possible 2010 U.S. Senate contest.

Key finding: “Castle is winning the head to head match up because of a 53-20 advantage with independents and because he pulls 22% of the Democratic vote. Biden’s core problem at this point is that even though 67% of the voters who have a positive opinion of both him and Castle are Democrats, he has only a 42-40 lead with that group. That’s likely a function of voters knowing Castle better after nearly 30 years in statewide office.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut shows former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) edging Sen. Christopher Dodd, 43% to 43%, in a possible 2010 U.S. Senate race.

However, Connecticut voters approve of the job Dodd is doing, 49% to 44%, compared to a negative 41% to 48% approval rating February 10.

Said pollster Douglas Schwartz: “These numbers have to worry Sen. Christopher Dodd. Former Congressman Simmons is not well known outside his district, yet he is running neck and neck with Dodd at this point. Simmons easily wins his former district. The good news for Dodd is that this is the first poll in a long time where Dodd’s job approval hasn’t dropped. It appears that Dodd’s slide may have ended.”

In other possible match ups, Dodd leads State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), 47% to 34%, and tops CNBC host Larry Kudlow (R), 46% to 34%.

NC Burr (R)

North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler will not run forSenate in 2010, a spokesman said Monday night, declining a chance to seek a seat in the upper chamber as Democrats plot to expand their majority on Capitol Hill. 

FL Open Senate Seat (R)

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) hired a prized fundraiser for former Gov. Jeb Bush and conducted a national search for a campaign manager in a sign he may run for open senate seat.

HA Open Gov Seat (R)

Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie says he will run for Hawaii governor next year. Saying he was inspired by his friend Barack Obama to bring change, the 10-term congressman made the official announcement on his campaign Web site and on Twitter.

NV

Fmr Congressman Porter (R) will not seek any elected office in 2010.

PA Specter (R)

Pat Toomey has begun telling friends that he will run for U.S. Senate against Republican Arlen Specter in 2010.

Two sources said they spoke with the former Lehigh Valley congressman this week and were told that he’s made up his mind about a repeat challenge of the five-term incumbent in next spring’s GOP primary. Toomey lost narrowly to Specter in the 2004 primary.

Richard Thulin, head of the 20-member Lehigh Valley Republican Network, sent an e-mail to others within the group today telling them that “Pat’s formal announcement will be forthcoming.”

“Interesting news,” he wrote. “Pat Toomey asked me to let you know that he has decided to challenge Arlen Specter.”

LA Vitter (R)

Several names have surfaced as possible challengers to Sen. David Vitter next year, but Sen. Rob Marionneaux, D-Livonia, is the first to say he is strongly considering it.

OK Open Seat Governor (D)

Former Republican Rep. J.C. Watts has lawmakers talking about the possibility he could be setting the stage to run for governor.  

Republican Rep. Mary Fallin of the 5th Congressional District has said she is running for the post, making the announcement at a meeting of Oklahoma County Democrats last Saturday.
Lt. Gov. Jari Askins has jumped into the race on the Democratic side, and Attorney General Drew Edmondson also has been campaigning, but has not officially announced. 

RI Open Seat (R)

Former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey told WPRO’s The Dan Yorke Show that he’s not going to run for governor in 2010.

MA Patrick (D)

State Treasurer Tim Cahill may be thinking about a run for governor and may force a primary.

CT Rell (R)

Three years after an unlikely quest for the United States Senate established Ned Lamont as a national Democratic figure, he said he is weighing another electoral adventure: a challenge to Gov. M. Jodi Rell, one Republican whose political fortunes have not fallen with the Dow.

PA Specter (R)

Pat Toomey, a conservative former congressman who narrowly lost the 2004 Republican primary to Sen. Arlen Specter, said Monday he may demand a rematch next year.

Toomey, who is president of the anti-tax Club for Growth in Washington, recently had said he was considering running for Pennsylvania governor. But a written statement he issued Monday marked the first time he acknowledged publicly that he is contemplating taking on Specter for a second time.

LA Vitter (R)

Despite the urging of state and national Democrats, local Congressman Charlie Melancon says that, at least for now, he has decided against running for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

IL Burris (D)

Ilinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias announced today he created an exploratory committee to runfor the U.S. Senate in 2010. The seat is currently being held by Roland Burris. An exploratory committee will allow Giannoulias to raise money for a possible run.

OH Open Seat (R)

A Democratic state lawmaker from Cincinnati says he will run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican George Voinovich in 2010.

State Rep. Tyrone Yates says he’s already filed paperwork to establish an exploratory committee.

Yates is a former Cincinnati councilman in his fourth term as a state representative. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher already had said they would seek the Democratic nomination.

Former Congressman Rob Portman of Cincinnati is the only Republican to declare for the race so far.

TN Governor Seat Open (D)

State Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey has told Republicans in Greene County that he will run for governor in 2010. Others seeking the Republican nomination are Memphis prosecutor Bill Gibbons, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam and U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp of Chattanooga.

OK Open Seat (D)

Mary Fallin is in the 2010 governor’s race, the Republican congresswoman told key supporters Friday in a conference call, one of the participants said.

OH Open Senate Seat (R)

Democrats have a primary on their hands with the announcement both Lt Gov Fisher and SOS Burner are running for open Senate Seat.  Republicans seem to be behind Fmr Congressman Portman

NH Open Senate Seat (R)

It appears Fmr Senator Sununu is preparing to make the run for Open Gregg Seat.

NY Gillibrand (D)

The NRSC is trying to coax Fmr Governor Pataki into running for Senate Seat.

MI Open Gov Race (D)

Two-term Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land said today she is planning to run for governor in 2010.

Among those previously announcing intentions to run for the GOP nomination were Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo. 

On the Democrat side, only Lt. Gov. John Cherry has formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.

President Obama has settled on Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), a key ally with a record of working across party lines, as his top choice for secretary of health and human services, the New York Times reports.

Good news in that the NRSC won’t have to waste funds on the Open Senate Race now

For all the talk of the Senate Democrats to never let Burris be seated and yet he has and now we learn he perjured under oath and the silence is ticking by and still now word from any Senate Democrat that Burris needs to resign?

Even the Senator from IL in Durbin is quiet and “on vacation.”  Silence is defining.  

Granted, politically it would hurt our position to win seat back but the NRSC needs to get its act together and start hitting at Reid and company.

Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-CA) “has pocketed more than $200,000 of political contributions by charging as much as 18% interest on money she loaned to her own campaign,” Bloomberg reports.

The congresswoman “made the $150,000 loan in 1998, when she was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. Through Dec. 31, her campaign committee has used donations to pay Napolitano $221,780 of interest while reducing the principal by just $64,727, a review of her Federal Election Commission filings shows.”

Way to drain the swamp Pelosi!

Who would of ever thought the GOP has a chance to pick a seat up in the Northeast of all places but it appears Senator Chris Dodd is in big trouble according to a poll released today by Quinnipiac University.

Poll results show Dodd may be in trouble, giving him a 41 percent approval rating. Slipping below 50 percent is considered a red flag for incumbents.

Taken days after Dodd released details of two mortgages being investigated by a Senate ethics panel, the poll found that Connecticut voters are evenly split on whether they trust the five-term Democrat. Dodd’s term ends next year and he plans to run for a sixth term.

Fifty-one percent of voters said they would not vote for Dodd if he seeks re-election in 2010. Fifty-four percent said they are not satisfied with Dodd’s explanation of the details around his mortgage refinancing relationship with Countrywide Loans.

Chris Healy, chairman of the Connecticut Republicans, said there are several GOP candidates considering a run against Dodd. He suggested former U.S. Reps. Rob Simmons of Stonington and Chris Shays of Bridgeport, and Thomas Foley of Greenwich, the recent U.S. ambassador to Ireland.

Meanwhile, Gov Rell (R) has 75 percent of unaffiliated voters support Rell and 85 percent of Republicans approve of the job she’s doing. Even 67 percent of Dems approve of the job she is doing. I think if she ran we could have ourselves a winning seat in CT.

We must start working on taking back the House/Senate so here are some updates on the 2010 Races:

KY Bunning (R)

Daily Kos Poll

Bunning leads Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D), the only Democrat who has made his candidacy official, by 46 percent to 42 percent. He’s ahead of Attorney General Jack Conway (D), who has made his interest in the race clear, by the same margin.

Conway and close ally Crit Luallen, the state’s auditor, have said they will not run in a primary against each other. If Luallen opts for a bid instead of Conway, she begins with 41 percent to Bunning’s 45 percent.

Bunning leads Rep. Ben Chandler (D), who has walked back from his initial skepticism on entering the race, by a 45 percent to 42 percent margin

KS Open Senate Seat (R)

A new Research 2000/DailyKos poll in shows Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) would be a very strong candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, leading two likely Republicans challengers by double digits.

Sebelius also has a very solid 56% to 37% approval rate in a what is generally considered a safe Republican state.

CT Dodd/ Governor Race 

Fmr Congressman Simmons (R) has indicated he may challenge Senator Dodd in 2010 or if Gov Rell does not run for re-election for the Governors mansion.

OH 1 Steve Driehaus (D)

Former Congressman Steve Chabot will try to win his seat back in 2010.

ID 1  Minnick (D)

 Former Idaho Republican congressman Bill Sali is planning another run for the U.S. House.

Sali, who lost his House seat in November to Democrat Walt Minnick, filed a statement of candidacy this week with the Federal Election Commission. The paperwork indicates Sali will take the same “Sali for Congress” name used in his 2006 and 2008 campaigns.

PA 6 Gerlach (R)

Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach, a politically moderate Republican who has narrowly won four House elections in a district that is trending Democratic, took a formal step Thursday toward a campaign for governor in 2010.

Gerlach, whose 6th District takes in suburbs and exurbs west of Philadelphia, announced that he had filed papers with Pennsylvania election officials to establish an “exploratory committee” that would allow him to raise and spend campaign funds as he weighs whether to become an official candidate.

Via Yahoo News:

The Pentagon’s senior judge overseeing terror trials at Guantanamo Bay dropped charges Thursday against an al-Qaidasuspect in the 2000 USS Cole bombing, upholding President Barack Obama‘s order to freeze military tribunals there. The charges against suspected al-Qaida bomber Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri marked the last active Guantanamo war crimes case.

The legal move by Susan J. Crawford, the top legal authority for military trials at Guantanamo, brings all cases into compliance with Obama’s Jan. 22 executive order to halt terrorist court proceedings at the U.S. Navy base in Cuba.

How the hell can the American people trust this guy with protecting us is beyond me?  As someone who lives in NYC I have zero confidence in being able to protect me like President Bush did.

MO (R) Open Senate Seat

As expected Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan says she will run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

NH (R) Open Senate Seat

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) will announce his candidacy for the Senate in New Hampshire later this week, The Hill confirmed Tuesday.

FL (R) Open Senate Seat

Governor Crist has confirmed he is considering a run for Open Senate Seat but won’t decide on it till May.

VA Governor Race (Open Seat) D

Virginia Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell announced to his staff in an e-mail today that he is resigning to seek the Republican nomination for governor.

McDonnell spokesman J. Tucker Martin confirmed the authenticity of the e-mail but would make no further comment.

KS Open Senate Seat (R)

Rep. Todd Tiahrt has kicked off his campaign to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010. 

Tiahrt’s Saturday announcement sets up a clash with fellow Republican Rep. Jerry Moran over the seat now held by Republican Sam Brownback.

Sebelius hasn’t expressed an interest in the Senate, but she’s term-limited as governor.

WI Governor Doyle (D)

Fmr Congressman Neumann said he’s leaning “very heavily” toward getting into the race, though he won’t decide until fall.

It’s been a decade since Neumann served in public office. He represented Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District from 1995 to 1999, before losing by a 2-percent margin to Sen. Russ Feingold in the 1998 Senate race.

TN Open Governor Race (D)

U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) announced Thursday he won’t run for Tennessee governor in 2010.

OH Strickland (D)

Fmr Congressman Kasich said he is considering a run for governor in 2010 and that he will make a decision sometime this year on whether to challenge current Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. But he said the focus of his speech Friday was Ohio jobs.

CT Rell (R)

Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz says she’ll be seeking the Democratic nomination for governor for the 2010 election.

Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell hasn’t announced whether she’ll seek re-election.

IA Culver (D)

Republican State Auditor David Vaudt said Tuesday he’ll decide whether to run for governor within a few months.

Vaudt, in his second term as auditor and one of two Republicans who hold statewide elective office, has often been mentioned as a leading GOP candidate to run in 2010 against Democratic Gov. Chet Culver, who is expected to seek a second term.